Seattle Sports Insider

DPs at Double A

Posted by

5/13/10

=== Spectator ===

... putting his finger on an interesting nexus in the M's minors, as usual, pontificates:

Triunfel April: .268/.318/.366/.684, 6:17 BB:K

Triunfel May: .333/.375/.444/.819, 1:1 BB:K (12 H in his last 10 G vs. 1 K)

Not dominating AA at age 20, but if you wish away the cold start, he's likely to end up with an OPS around .800 playing SS everyday. And he effectively missed all of last year. Where does that put him on the Bill James age-evaluation chart, Doc?

CRUNCH: If Triunfel were 20, he would need to show domination of A+ ball by the second half to meet James' classic timeline for "blue-chip prospect."

On that chart, Triunfel is actually 19 (having missed a year), so he doesn't need to show that yet. :- ) As Spec notes, it isn't chrono age vs league and results, as such, that we are indexing here. It's experience vs. league and results.

Remember Carlos Guillen, who missed large fractions of 17 seasons in the minors? Everybody gauged his development arc incorrectly.

..............

Triunfel, as we speak, is a "quality" double-A hitter. .333/.375/.444 is "quality" offense, not star offense, but quality. Don't bring the small-sample slop into the paint. Triunfel's going to continue to do at least that.

But 12 hits against 1 strikeout?! will lead to results a lot better than "quality" ... Albert Pujols his ownself doesn't cover that many pitches...

Triunfel right now showing results considerably more accelerated than what is required for the "blue chip" label. But this is really only debated among us 'net rats, as far as I can tell. Tools scouts have been ga-ga over him since he was like 12.

...............

From what I've seen on vid, I do tend to side with those who think that Triunfel is going to need to play 3B. He's not going to have waterbug quickness with the first and second steps, that I can see, in admittedly minimal looks. And it's tough to waste his howitzer arm at 2B. How many 2B's in the majors can throw the ball over the roof?

So, you'd have to ask Grifol whether he sticks at SS, but hey. If Carlos Triunfel plays SS in the major leagues you are talking about a franchise player with a capital F.

=== Ackley ===

Ackley April: .147/.289/.227/.519, 13:14 BB:K

Ackley May: .333/.474/.533/1.007, 7:7 BB:K

Two doubles yesterday and 10 H in his last 7 G.

Notice, first of all, that Ackley's BABIP was .180 in April and .409 in May.

............

The 1:1 eye in the minors isn't stunning from a true star out of college; plenty of guys (well, some guys) do that.

What's interesting to me, is what it implies as to Ackley's peak value. As we all know, the consensus is that Ackley has Carew-, Rose-type HIT ability to cover a pitch. It would be the other things added in that present the possibility of superstardom. 20 walks right out of the chute, in the minors, points us toward the idea that Ackley is indeed going to walk a lot and OBP .400-and-plenty.

In fact, Ackley's MLE's in May are .280/.395/.440 already, which would imply theoretically that he is a better hitter than any current Mariner. We're just saying. Ackley is taking off already.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

Ackley

Good to see Ackley heating up. Starting in AA wa pretty aggressive with also having to learn a new position. He needs to gain strength in the off season but he is a winner on every team he plays for. I have followed some of his bats on MILB and he still ends up walking on 0-2 counts which shows a good eye and plate intelligence. He also goes the other way a great deal with a plan. I read that his father never letr him pull balls when he was younger and that has enabled him to use the whole field.

vs. Mudcats end of the month

Ackley and West Tennessee come to visit the Mudcats here in central NC the last week of this month. I'm hoping to get over to Zebulon to see at least one of those games.
The thing that makes me really high on him is a lot of the comments from the UNC coach about him over the years. The aggregate picture I got was not a Griffey-esque - "Oh, he's just uber-talented." It was more along the lines of -- "Oh, he's uber-talented -- but the kid absorbs knowledge like a black hole." The interviews tended to harp on his MIND and his work ethic more than on his natural ability. That combo of talent PLUS desire to continually improve PLUS the mental capacity to process and apply instruction. THAT was the tone of the stuff I read during his years in Chapel Hill.
The one warning I would have -- he has skills - no doubt -- but his personality is that of STUDENT OF THE GAME. So, I would not be surprised to see a repeat of his AA pattern when he moves to AAA and the majors. "Some" of his skills will be immediately apparent, (primarily the stellar eye). But, I think 4-8 week transition periods where he won't look (or produce) as expected could be the norm.
The two guys I would most readily comp him to would be Brian Giles and/or Bobby Abreu. I think his power potential is under-appreciated. But, Ackley has a pattern of ... "assembling" his tools for the next level. First, he gets his eye working. Then, he works on just making solid contact -- hitting for average. And, finally, after he's comfortable with both of those - THEN, he'll add back in the power.
His approach to the game (from what I can tell from the bleachers) is almost clinical. It's almost like he starts with a strat-o-matic card that is all walks and singles. Then revises it to add doubles and triples. Then edits it again to add HRs. (And, if/when he puts his mind to it -- he'll work on adding steals, too).

In Seattle...the steals will come early.

They don't have you do that stuff in the minors too much if you're an elite hitting prospect, because the risk of injury is too high...but in the big leagues, with Wak as your manager, if you have speed to put the game in motion (and Ackley does), then you're going to run. I could well see Ackley coming up right this instant and OUT-HITTING Chone Figgins' current slop. He could easily post a .200/.350/.300 line in Seattle today.
But no need to rush him...let him play AA til the AS break and finish the year in AAA...then you can let him try to make the club next year, but if he doesn't it's no disaster...you have Lopez in 2011 for one more season and then you can replace Lopez with Ackley when he's ready.

JOEY WONG!!!!!!!

If you haven't noticed yet I am a HUGE beaver fan. And the double play pictured above is quite possibly the best double play I have ever seen turned in my life. Darwin Barney had a great play to start it and of course Wong turned it in amazing fashion. Here is some video evidence :) Plus it was in the College World Series to boot!

Awesome 'put John

Never even occurred, the idea of teaching a child to hit the other way.
Would hard-wire him to wait on the ball. :c-points:

You da man OBF :- )

sports can be fun, can't they? LOL.

Haven't looked it up

Did Ackley run in college, Matty?

And if 4-8 week transitions are the norm

Then he's a pretty special talent for sure :- )
Love the Giles and Abreu comps... was Abreu a roider, does anybody know? Question is how much power Ackley will develop naturally.
I don't doubt for a second that Ackley is going to have a ton of power *pound for pound*, like Ichiro and for the same reason.

Somewhat

In 207 game,s he stole 43 bases and was caught 14 times. He's a high percentage base stealer, but not quite Ichiro-fast.

Wowzers

That was a ridiculous play...LOL Jack Wilson couldn't do it any better. OZZIE SMITH...could not do it any better.

JEMANJI, Watch the Youtube

JEMANJI,
Watch the Youtube video of him in the Arizona Fall League and all his hits were directed opposite field. I think he tries to hit oppo his first at bat a lot.

So he's Wade Boggs redux?

Including the hundred walks?
Wonder what the Red Sox would give us for him. Imagine Ack with a 250-foot high tennis playback in LF.

DJaxx DP combo in June

Ackley: 97 AB, 30 H, 12 xbh, 16 BB, 10 K -- .309/.404/.474. The Ackley we thought we were getting.
Triunfel: 94 AB, 29 H, 6 xbh, 3 BB, 11 K -- .309/.327/.415. Keep repeating: 20 yrs. old in AA, missed a year.
And another very happy DJaxx note: 1st Lt. Nick Hill returned on 6/16 and in six relief outings has 8.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. Overall ERA still ugly because his pre-DL starts were disasters, but post-DL ERA is 1.08.