Great post Doc! Nothing to add really - Very interesting take on height of the release point, seems like the obvious factor that isn't really obvious. The fact that the steep angle is combined with precision command... well that's what had everyone scratching their heads about, when Doogie came up. I think we're still looking for an obvious precedent for a pitcher of his type.
Actually your article here gives me more hope about Fister's long-term viability. I was thinking that the novelty of his high-angle control game would wear off after a year or two, then you'd be looking at a sub-par pitcher. But a control game can work forever, and the steep angle means the bat has slightly less chance of hitting the ball square. I for one am very excited about fister going forward.
Q. What do the odds flicker over to at this point on the Big Board?
A. I'd say about 75% that he's going to be around a 100 ERA+ this year, wouldn't you? And let's gingerly slide it to 30% that he's going to be an impact pitcher.
He's going to have a game where he gives up three dingers, and soon. :- ) But the question is still going to be: how consistently can he take that "A" command out there.
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Q. Can he get enough strikeouts, though?
A. Do recall that pitchers get strikeouts on their offspeed stuff. With 80% fastballs thrown, the catchers aren't giving Fister a fighting chance at K's. Yet. Still, Fister's CTL is 13:5. Check Rowland-Smith's...
And the catchers have every right to call for fastballs. They're going to ride these pub-darts until Fister stops executing them, and if he does, he won't need strikeouts. He'll be a BABIP freak.
Catfish Hunter struck out 4.4, 4.0, and 4.9 batters in 1973-75, finishing top 3 in the Cy all three years. Catfish had BABIP's of .228, .240 and .222 in those years. Here, let's chart that out:
- 1973 - 4.4 strikeouts, .228 BABIP, #3 in Cy Young
- 1974 - 4.0 strikeouts, .240 BABIP, #1 in Cy Young
- 1975 - 4.9 strikeouts, .222 BABIP, #2 in Cy Young
If a guy can literally hit a teacup, just do that. Batters will get themselves out. Let's don't be dogmatic, kiddies. If a guy's living on the black, strikeouts are no longer the point.
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Q. Will the BABIP luck run out?
A. Let's watch it, but in Saturday's game, the BABIP luck pretty much did go against him. He gave up 8 hits, and it seemed that there were few good plays behind him - certainly not many from the 2B, 3B, SS. There were DP's, but that's not a BABIP issue.
He gave up the hits, but was still effective. Two runs in 8 innings despite the 8 hits is pretty snazzy.
Granted, he's not going to run a 2.50 ERA this year. But 3.75 would be pretty cool from your 4 starter.
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Q. So would jemanji commit heresy and call 80% fastballs in Doug Fister's next game if he were hitting the mitt?
A. Again, Catfish used to do this. Fergie. Christy Mathewson was king of the mediocre fastball on the black..... :- )
If Doug Fister can actually go strike one, strike two, on the edge of the plate, he will win repeatedly. The question is whether he can continue to execute. The problem is that there is no margin for error at all. Jamie Moyer could not afford to center even a single fastball with runners on. The approach is crazy-making, but there are a few pitchers who can do it.
I want to see the strikeouts that come with the 40% changes and curves. And SSI hopes that the catchers are very quick to adjust to a 3-pitch game if the command gives even an inch.
But while he's as hot as a firecracker with his location, we will just sit and boggle.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Mark Twain said that he could go three months on the right compliment :- )
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No question that a steep downhill angle to a pitch is a lasting advantage. We mentioned about the idea of dropping a pitch straight from the roof? At 90 mph you would have no chance of making contact ...
... found out that the rules prohibit a slope greater than 1 inch in 1 foot.
Batters have, for 100 years, complained that it's hard to hit a pitcher who looks like he's stepping down at them off a cliff.
One more illustration of the fact that a downhill-vectored pitch is inherently harder to hit.
Wonder if that's a minor part of Lincecum's advantage, too... the loooooong step off the rubber creates not only a shorter distance to the plate but a (slightly) steeper angle.
Yeah, in effect, Lincecum is shortening the base of the triangle, meaning he drops (say) 5 inches in one step rather than 3 inches.
Easy to imagine that little things like this warp the hitter's ingrained perception.