I'm one of those idiots (currently, perhaps), I suppose. I've been a vocal Kotchman doubter...and remain so. He is very hot right now...and I'm appreciative of that. However, I can not see this type of production for a long period of time. His form chart just doesn't allow such an assumption to be easily made.
Lately he has covered the low strike zone with great effect. We've seen some genreal mashing/line drives...but almost none of the two-hop grounder, 4-3, that is his modus operandi. It will come.
I'm not saying he's blind pig who has stumbled upon an acorn......but he's a pedantary hitter who has found a hot streak. Good for him.
But in the end, we're still hoping for a 100 OPS season from our 1B guy. Rather low expectations. I still believe that 90 is more likely than 110.
I hope not. But I suppose I'm an idiot, for now.
Fister is similar, but different. He is beyond his form chart, too. But his form chart was less extensive and more interpretive. He's a guy, it is fairly clear, with the ability to pound the low strike zone...and he has a great defense behind him. You can win with that.
He is looking like a MLB #3 or #4 guy right now (Well really he looks like a #2 right not...but I'm figuring in some regression)
I'm bullish on Fister. Bearish on Kotchman. Buy one. Sell the other short.
Doc: (paraphrased) "Kotchman is a bum with a girlie-man swing whose only real value on a major league roster would be as a JT Snow type backup to any random 1B who can actually hit."
After 14 games: .286/.367/.595 (.963) -- 3-HRs, 12-RBI --- 163 OPS+
Okay - it's early. But really -- how many guys EVER lead their team in HRs *AND* fewest strikeouts - even two weeks in? Four doubles, three dingers, six walks -- and a measly four Ks all season. Ichiro has 5. Tui has 5 in NINE (9) plate appearances!
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Sandy: "Fister is just a younger, worser version of Silva. Minor leaguers were lighting him up for 11 hits a game -- and it doesn't matter if you can always put it over the plate - if it just lays there like a dead fish to be lined off the wall."
After 3 starts: 2-1; 1.42-ERA; 4-BB; 9-K; 19-IP; 0-HR; 12-hits. ERA+ 278
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I think I speak for both of us when I say -- I am LOVING being wrong (at the moment), but I still ain't buying the current heroics are indicative of long term success.
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This is the tricky part of being an analyst. You analyze -- you pour over data -- you find multiple data points to support your conclusions ... and the players on the field have the audacity to disagree. THIS is why baseball is so wonderfully frustrating to the math geeks.
Me? I still think Kotchman is more for real than for show - (not that he's gonna hit .963 all season -- but I do think 20 HRs is a possibility - and a September OPS that begins with '8' is also doable.
I also think Fister, while just as locked in pitching-wise as Cranklin is at the plate - is currently surviving off a great defense, plus a little luck. (He's got half Felix Ks - but has allowed 2 fewer hits. Anyone here REALLY think Fister's pitches are harder to center than Felix?)
Even Doc notes that Fister doesn't meet the Shandler minimum entry requirement, (his 4.3 K/9 at the moment is about 1.5 Ks low). Clearly, he hasn't NEEDED those Ks the last couple of games. And, of course, Vargas, who has an 11:1 K/BB ratio at the moment has the worst ERA of any starter (5.56), while fanning 8.7 a game -- 0.7 MORE than Felix.
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The BEST part of all this? (Other than Doc/SanMan "Who Can Look Like the Bigger Idiot" contest).
These are both performances by guys viewed as FRINGE talent by many, many people. Just think back to what fringe talent meant two years ago. Fringe talent was Feierabend and LaHair. It's actually a significant leap forward to go from -- we HOPE these guys can be nominally competent - and some day they might be good. Today, we seem to have - yes, these guys have a BASELINE of competent - with upside of 'might be good'. That's actually a MUCH larger step than most fans realize -- (unless you've been rooting for KC or Pittsburgh for the last decade).
Okay - beating up on Baltimore is sort of like beating up on the Toledo Mudhens. They're near the worst at both run creation and prevention at the moment. But, don't good Major Leaguers beat up on bad ones?
Beyond the feel good stories of Fister and Kotchman ... the most troubling aspect of the current squad? Jack Wilson is at this point carrying a higher OPS than Jose Lopez AND Ken Griffey. Still work to be done. But, it does feel good to be plain wrong sometimes.
Comments
in the direction of both Fister and Kotchman being good, rather than a push after they both crash and burn :- )
Nobody remembers Endy Chavez's MVP esque 2-3 weeks to begin the season or Everett's first great 3 weeks capped by a grand slam a few years ago.
I'm still expecting both guys to regress heavily (Kotchman to around 90 OPS+, Fister to around 5 FIP).
If the trends do continue for the next few weeks though, I'm going to have the opportunity to light some serious light bulbs.
you will note that I projected Fister to post a 5.10 DNRA (a 95 DNRA+) in my WAR Stack series (resulting in a 4.20 ACTUAL ERA because he's going to be extremely boosted (one of the most extreme defense-assisted pitchers in Seattle's arsenal given his gamer mentality, his ability to throw a blizzard of strikes and his neutral GB/FB).
So I'm not too far from you on that projection.
Huh,
Kotchman's MVP stock tumbled some tonight! :)
Just kidding...But he will regress to very near his career mean.
Bringing up Endy is a nice point. So - how CAN you identify a player who is "just" hot -- compared to one that has improved something? Well, Endy was clearly hot in April - and cooled back down to career standards before losing his leg.
Endy - in 2009 - was a 31 year old hitter with about 2300 PAs and a .270/.311/.369/.680 line for his career. Fifteen games in he was hitting: .351/.422/.421/.843 -- and would finish April at: .305/.374/.354/.727 (with a .343 BABIP - compared to his career .294.
There were two major skews for Endy. His average was WAY above normal - and his walk rate was up considerably. (Career 41 points of patience was showing 69 points of patience for all of April. His final patience score would be 55). Basically, his BB% jumped from 5.7% to 7.7% for 2009. Only once in his career had it been above 6. After April, his average (and BABIP) returned to normal, (.264 / .283 in May). I'll ignore the 30 PAs in June.
Kotchman - on the other hand - is a 27-year-old with 1900 major league PAs. His career line: .269/.337/.406 (.742) entering 2009.
Fifteen games in, he's hitting: .261/.340/.543/.883 -- with a .225 BABIP.
His average is DOWN. His patience (normally 68) is up a bit (79).
His K and BB numbers are a tad better than normal - but he's always had a solid K/BB ratio with few Ks.
In truth - there is only one stat where he's CLEARLY in new territory -- power. His ISO at the moment is .283!!! His career is .141. His career high (in his .840 season), it was only .172.
Is it even POSSIBLE for a guy with a .140 ISO at age 27 to suddenly develop 200 level power?!? Well this guy named Raul Ibanez didn't blossom until age 29. But, hey, that was probably just a fluke - where a guy got helped out a lot by a friendly park. But, I digress.
In seriousness, Kotchman will NOT be posting a 283 ISO. That's not gonna happen any more than Endy was going to keep hitting .350.
But, Kotchman has actually been UN-lucky - in that his BABIP is 50 points BELOW his career BABIP. In truth, a .275 BABIP is a bit on the low side to begin with. But, look at his BABIP for each team he STARTED the year with for the past 3 seasons:
.305 ... .279 ... .292
And what about the two teams he FINISHED the year with in '08 and '09?
.252 ... .250
His BABIP during his 3 seasons of auditioning (about 350 PAs) was .227.
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I think what really gets to me is that one of the players mentioned as a better option is, Carlos Pena. Pena - a 32-year-old guy has a career 126 OPS+ *TODAY*. But, after his age 28 season, his career OPS+ was 110. Pena was a .250/.330/.450 guy all the way through 2007. What is he NOW? He's a .250/.330/.500 hitter.
The part with Kotchman that baffles me - is that he's perceived as a completely finished, immutable product - *AS IF* he's a 33-year-old guy on the downside of his career.
He's a 27-year-old former phenom - who to date has had *ONE* uninterupted season of being a full-time 1B for a team -- and hit .840 during that one season.
Hey - I'm down on Fister - but I've gotta at least admit that he's effectively a 26-year-old rookie -- so he might not be done cooking. My problem with Fister is he hasn't shown he can prevent hits at ANY level *AND* he didn't make it to the majors until 26. Kotchman made it at 22 - stuck at 24.
Maybe it's because Seattle's only experience with prospects in the last decade that is messing things up. Seattle hasn't SEEN a guy come in with X-level production and then move to Y and then Z level production. The closest thing they've had is Lopez - who is almost universally viewed as a finished product as of age 24.
I actually got to watch a whole slew of prospects come up - take their lumps - adjust - and become solid players. Not talking just Chipper and Andruw. But Marcus Giles - Furcal - DeRosa - LaRoche - Francoeur - Kelly Johnson. They've had a dozen or more DIFFERENT career paths from prospects. Seattle's had two -- abject failure or Hall of Famer. Everyone else was an import.
How many blossoming 27-year-olds have Seattle fans gotten to SEE over the past decade - regardless of whether home grown or imported?
I think what really baffles me is the twisted (IMO) perception:
Kotchman is hopeless - because, while he had ability at age 24 - he lost it - therefore, he'll suck forever.
With Fister - he never HAD great ability until last season - (and sucked before that) - so, therefore, he will be great and can only get better from here on out.
But - in the end - I'm convinced Vargas heads to the pen - (which is absent any LHPs at the moment). I still believe that by the time Bedard is ready, Fister will have pitched himself back to AAA.
Kotchman has hit real well for two weeks. It is two weeks though and I'm not sold on his swing or his history of not pulling the ball well for power.