Q. How likely that, over the course of two-three years, let's say, Fister could give more than the 100-110 ERA+ that SSI hoped for?
A. After two performances like that from a guy who is essentially a rookie, it's fair to wonder about upside...
Shandler's magic number for guys like Doogie is 5.6 strikeouts per nine. A finesse, very low-BB pitcher, can be a legitimate star in the big leagues once he goes over 5.6 per nine. Shandler's basing this on thousands of almanac scans.
So, stipulated that a low-BB Fister would either need to get up to the 5.6 - 6.0 strikeout level ... or ... to be a BABIP freak based on Wakamatsu's "angle" factor.
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Q. How would Fister increase his strikeouts?
A. First of all, it's a James axiom that most rookie ML starters, if they are going to stick, will increase their strikeout rate by years 2-3, as they improve. They have to improve if they're going to survive the adjustment cycle.
Personally, I like Fister's chances to increase his K's from his lifetime (80 IP) 5.0 rate because, to date in 2010, he has not been throwing many changeups or curves.
He's been using 70-80% fastballs, and ML hitters don't strike out on fastballs. They strike out on curves and changeups.
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Q. Why would the catchers be calling for so many FB's, then?
A. Been watching catchers do that for 30 years. When a pitcher is hitting them smack-dab in the middle of the glove every pitch, they just keep calling heaters. They're having fun. They get to work the hitter, play chess. The game goes Japanese when a pitcher can show precision, rather than power.
........
Remember, those 80% fastballs have yielded back-to-back shutouts.* The M's had 7 runs on Monday before the Orioles had a hit.
If Fister were somehow able to pitch with this level of command, sure, he could fan 4-5 guys per nine and run 1+ ERA's.
Thing is, once he comes back to earth with the command, then the changeups and curves go to 40%, and then the K's go to 6. Or so goes the SSI script.
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Q. Anything else?
A. The mound demeanor has gone from "gamer" -- the first-game wrestling match with the ump -- to "professional" in game two, to Rocking Chair game three on Monday.
Will be interesting to see if Fister can parlay that effortlessness into a similar dart-throwing exhibition going forward.
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Big fun,
Dr D
The key to his success today...he was throwing a Greg Maddux 2-seamer. It was running about 6 inches left to right...inside corner strikes to lefties (or weak choppers) and outside corner strikes looking to righties. If he can keep doing THAT...throwing a Maddux fastball...he's got Radke potential.
Was getting all kinds of run on it.
Several times it ran back over the plate for a called strike, in Mad Dog fashion...
...after about the fourth inning, he just started going strike one strike two but peppering the outside corner to every righty in their line-up with those running 2-seamers at about 88 mph. Just like Maddux. It was pretty nifty to watch.
Doogie's FB had me worried last year at 86 mph; he had to be HAIR-fine at that velo.
But at 88-90 he's in great shape. As we all know, fastball attributes include not only (1) velo, but (2) command and (3) movement.
Greg Maddux had a great fastball, though 88 mph. Lot of ML stars have had plus fastballs with poor velo. We watched one in Seattle for ten years. 87 mph, and all sorts of positive runs values off it.
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Wasn't like the O's were hitting BP pitches at people. You watch the tape and you see one disgusting pitcher's pitch after another putting them down 0-1, 1-2.
Question is only to what extent Doogie will execute like this. Question isn't whether it would work, if he could.
Here's what Baltimore manager Dave Trembley said:
"We had trouble with him because he nibbles and locates on both sides of the plate and up and down. He shows you a lot of stuff, nothing overpowering. He pitches around the plate very well. He looks like he's going to give you some hittable pitches and then they're not real good pitches. It looks like every at-bat, he gives you one decent one, but then he locates and changes speed. He nibbles on both sides of the plate, moves the ball around, changes speeds and changes eye levels.''