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Chart from BrooksBaseball.net. I know yer can't read it too good here, so here's the link.
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=== Preamble ===
If Snell, Fister, and RRS throw the way they did the first series, they'll be all right. Especially in front of that defense.
If I were Zduriencik, I'd feel like my "Strike Throwing Tomata Cans" strategy was nicely on track so far.
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=== Doogie 4.8: Just the Facts ===
ONE - Fister threw only two pitches that batters swung at and missed. The A's are not going be confused with the Yankees. This is a disastrous stat.
TWO - The biggest reason that the A's fouled off so many pitches (as opposed to swinging through them), was that Fister threw too many straight 4-seam fastballs. Preposterously too many.
Being in possession of these pitches:
... Doogie threw fastballs on 74-of-96 pitches. 67 of the 74 were two-seam (straight, velo) FB's.
Again, consider if the pitchers were just YELLOW, RED, GREEN pitches with yellow being by far the worst. Why would you throw yellow 74-of-96?
Coin of the realm, boys. MLB(TM) pitching calls for you to pitch off your fastball. (Admittedly, last year Fister threw only 61% fastballs.)
...........
This 2-swinging-strikes debacle was right after Doogie just finished watching Dallas Braden throw 40% changes -AND- 25% breaking pitches to stick the M's on a skewer and roast them over the river Styx. Duchscherer also beat the M's with an offspeed game.
If that's Adam Moore's fault, well, Wok needs to get with him instanter, 'cause that's a minor league game call.
THREE - the second-biggest reason that Fister got no swinging strikes, was the umpire behind home plate. Check Brooks' plot, notably the RH low-away quadrant.
It's one thing when the ump's eyeglass prescription suddenly runs out just before game time, and he can't tell what's going on in the gray areas. It's another thing when an entire 20% of the zone is a no-go area for a pitcher who lives there.
Once the hitters know that the plate is the size of a file folder, and is waist-high, it's going to be tough for Doogie to throw it by them -- unless he's willing to catch them out in front.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
Just a nauseating day from an ump-call and a pitch-call standpoint. (Can't wait to get home to Safeco and get some neutral umping.) For all that, Fister held them to two runs, though was out of the game early.
Adair does have Fister getting his fingers on top of the ball. He is now throwing it downward and consistently maintaining 88-91 (though with less command Wednesday).
That's huge. He was 86, 87, 88 last year and Dr. D's biggest fear was that he'd drop off -2 mph. Instead, he's gained +2 mph. That's enormous.
Except, let Johnson call the game next time. Doogie needs to throw this 90 fastball about 55%, not 85%, of the time.
My $0.02,
Dr D
I think it's interesting to note that the Mariners have played visually fine on defense and yet have a horrible DER right now after four games...seems like bad luck to me. Also seems like we've had some HORRENDOUSLY unfair umpiring. We'll see how it goes in Tejas.
Keep the color commentary goin' Matty. Or are you the anchor and me the color guy? :- )
Y'know - I've had precious little to say about Fister since he arrived. I don't get much screen time for the Ms -- which I still see as a plus - as it makes me blind to eyes-on bias.
My take on Fister? I've not said anything, because I was hoping the mass love-fest for the guy would turn out well. Developing pitchers 'develop'. They have ups and downs. You shouldn't read too much into any given start.
But, the numbers are just Baaaaad. In the minors, his career line is:
10.4-Hits; 0.8-HRs; 2.2-BB; 6.6-Ks.
At NO LEVEL in the minors did Fister ever allow single-digit hits/9. He's a guy with a 4.38 career minor league ERA - based off the basic simple reality that he can throw VERY hittable strikes.
Jaku transitioned to a 7.8-K/9 guy, which spurred his move to the majors. Fister hasn't EVER been as good as Jaku -- and Jaku was in over his head in the majors.
Garrett Olson? 7.5-hits/9 -- 8.7-K/9 in the minors.
French? 9.6-Hits/9 -- 0.7-HR; 2.8-BB; 6.0-K (but 7.9 K/9 in his last AAA stint before being called up by Detroit).
Fisters NUMBERS show him to be INFERIOR to every single #5 wannabe that the blog-o-sphere despises. I think it's simply a case of he came in, threw strikes, and got INCREDIBLY lucky in his first few starts with the Ms. The entire perception of Fister has been skewed by the emotional context of his first handful of performances. Being that he's young - the knee jerk (and often wrong) response of: "He can only get better!" got way too many Ms fans to bite hook, line and sinker.
Based on JUST the numbers - Fister has about as much chance to be a valuable MLB contributor as my 16-year-old neice.
=========
Sadly, the even worse conclusion here -- is that Z has a view of pitching that is looking more and more to be HORRIBLY skewed. I'm thinking there is an over-obsession with throw-strike pitchers to the point of blindness to the simple reality that just because Jim Bouton might be able to still throw strikes in BP does not mean he's someone you want in a game.
While I'm still high on Snell -- I think the Jaku, French, Olson, Vargas and Fister selections point to a potentially serious flaw with Master Z. It's fine to appreciate control pitchers -- it's detrimental when appreciation turns to obsession. And I also think that there's some ego in play here -- that "developing" a soft-tossing control guy would cement Jack's baseball savvy -- (as opposed to simply recycling one that has already proven successful -- like, say - Washburn).
IMO - Fister has less reason to be in the majors than Olson. Olson has just already been exposed as a AAAA pitcher. Fister? Personally, I'm not even certain he's a AAA pitcher. I think his AAA spike in '09 was little different than French's - (but French, at least, wasn't giving up 11 hits a game).
I suspect there is someone out there who qualifies - but I certainly don't recall seeing ANY SP with a couple hundred innings in the minors who AVERAGED double-digit hits for his minor league career who went on to succeed in the majors. Part of what you want to project a minor leaguer is that he has AT LEAST shown the ability to prevent minor league hitters from knocking him around. Fister has never even demonstrated that. He's the 'quirky' journeyman you keep stashed to throw that emergency start a couple of times a year. He has no business at all being anywhere near a rotation otherwise.
Fister's minor league BABIP is .339. Hes definetly been hittable, although I wouldn't call him sub-Olson.. Olson is a disaster.
French pitched well in his first AAA, and has better overall "stuff" (though he also isn't a very high upside guy himself). If Fister doesn't work out, he might be next in line.
The main number I look at is K/BB, for which Fister posted a 7:1 ratio in the PCL. While maintaining a normal HR rate.
7:1 in AAA probably puts him in the top 5% of all PCL-to-ML promotions.
...................
Supposing Fister leaped a plateau in 2009, as is typical for pitchers: why go over the numbers before he got good?
How much time are we going to spend on Jamie Moyer's numbers before the age of 30? Split them out 14 ways to show he was lousy 14 ways?
The question is what he did, once he started executing the pitches he is executing right now.
Just like 10.4 hits/9 is meaningless ... in a vacuum.
Your argument is PRECISELY the one that says French is BETTER than Fister. In 2009, he started executing his pitches and put up great numbers.
The 7:1 is meaningless, because it is driven almost exclusively by the WALK - not the K. *SILVA* produced a 7.89 K/BB ratio in 2005 against Major League hitters, over 188 innings. Did that make HIM a pitcher worth having? Bavasi thought so. Congratulations, you're analyzing pitchers with Bavasi deftness. (Okay - that's probably a bit overboard - but Silva does make my next point).
Is the 7:1 K/BB repeatable? Did anything previous in SILVA's resume suggest he'd reproduce 7:1? Is there anything previous in Fister's resume to suggest he will?
A 7:1 K/BB is pretty much an automatic indication of abberation.
The tell on Fister is that his K/BB had *ZERO* to do with Ks. His walk total plunged from 45 to 12. His K rate didn't budge (okay - it went DOWN slightly - but close enough to not matter).
Yes, Fister, in Tacoma, reduced his walks. He didn't increase his Ks. He didn't decrease his HRs. He DID increase his hits allowed to 11.2.
Is it REASONABLE to assume that Fister is going to produce anything remotely close to 7:1 in the majors - when he did so for four months, against AAA hitters? If a phenom gets a new pitch - or previously had really bad control, and it gets better - okay, fine, put more weight on the recent numbers, (like with French). But, there's no evidence there of that. The ONLY difference in Fister's AAA line from what came before is that his plus control went into the off-the-charts-unsustainable below-1 area. Great. He can put the ball over the plate, no matter how small the strike zone is on a given day.
French posted a 1.11 WHIP with Toledo before his '09 callup from Detroit. Fister's WHIP was 1.34 at Tacoma.
French saw his hits allowed plunge from 10.3 to 7.8 when his Ks spiked from 4.7 to 7.9.
Numerically, French's AAA spike looks a LOT more like a new pitcher. Fister's looks like umpires liked calling strikes for him.
Numerically, Fister is Jaku all over again -- except with even weaker "stuff".
You want a 'tell' for a AAA pitcher whose stuff is hard to pick up? It'll show up in ungodly hit/9 numbers.
This is where I think the SABR-group-think falls apart. Many of the formulas work because the pool of talent is ALL within the boundary limits of minimum talent required. So, Voros' take that pitchers don't control BIP results is essentially true. But, lots of prospects are NOT within that boundary - so they defy the standard paradigms.
Go look at any minor league pitchers you want. Go look at their career hit/9.
Washburn - 8.8
RRS - 8.8
Vargas - 8.8
Bedard - 6.9
Snell - 8.0
Felix - 7.2
Silva - 10.5 (9.8 before callup)
Fister - 10.4 (11.2 before callup)
For minor leaguers - you check the hit/9 and see if they're in the 'normal' range of 8-9 for decent talent. If so - fine - move on to the TTO numbers, and have fun. But guys outside that range (on either side), are the ones where you can pick up on stuff the TTO numbers miss.
Silva was white-knuckles BARELY good enough to stick in the majors - and lucked onto a team with excellent defense. He survived the 11 hits per game seasons for awhile. (Just like HoRam - whose minor league hit/9 was 9.6).
Being 2 walks better than other pitchers doesn't gain anything, if you're two HITS worse. That is the reality with Fister. AT BEST, I think Fister might survive as a long man, so long as nobody gets a second look at him. (.740 OPS 1st look - .804 2nd thus far in the majors). But, honestly, I don't think his stuff meets "minimum entrance" level - because if he's giving up 11.4 hits per game against AAA bats - he's not going to survive against MLB hitters for long.
I kind of take a tough line with this: No, on Fister, French, Vargas, Olson. Some orgs. have different philosophies regarding filler pitchers. A few (like the M's) seem to value polish and secondary pitches. Others like to fill the org. with stuff pitchers and hope that one develops (Dodgers have been this way for decades). I fall on the latter side. I want some skills that can't be coached. They don't have to include blazing stuff but it would be nice and those guys are out there. With the alternative, you are asking basic minors guys to show up to the proverbial gun fight with a knife.
For the 2 and 3 guys in May.
:- )
I'm as extreme a power-pitcher guy as it gets.
In this case, I can sympathize -- you've got the D and the park and you want guys who won't beat themselves.
But yeah. :daps:
If any other pitcher had a 0+ BB rate, he'd have a 3 K rate, because he'd be getting no swings outside the strike zone.
Running 0 BB's *while fanning a good number of hitters* is very unusual. Show me a hundred 0+, 7K PCL'ers, and I'll show you at least 40 quality ML pitchers out of that group.
Got any counterexamples? Zero walks, nice K's, and the guy was a meatball? List us the first 10 (not an edited 10) that you find.
.............
Saying that Carlos Silva's 7:1 year --- > means that 7:1 ratios aren't important? :- ) Do Scott Sanders' 10K rates in the NL mean that 10K pitchers are as likely to be bad as good? Quite a reach, mate.
Again, Doogie's no guarantee. Combining what I see on the field, with his accomplishments in the PCL, I give him a 40% chance to be a solid ML starter, as does Jack Zduriencik.
Still means that Doogie is as likely as not to fail.
Fister's AAA Strike% was 68.1%. Very good, but not suggestive of a sub 1 BB/9.
Run that season again and he probably regresses to around 2 BB/9.
Well, first off, I can't find ANY sub-1 walk pitchers who SUSTAINED that ability for any length of time. But, fine - you issued a challenge - and all I have to do is find two handfuls of single-year abberations. You're on. I'll start looking - (2005 and before - so time to reach the majors). Meanwhile, I'd like you to go and find those 11-hit pitchers that weren't meatballs.
Steve Langone - 15.80 K/BB as a rookie (2000). 1.0 and 7.0 in 2005. Never reached AAA. Oddly, his career 8.0 H/9 and 0.5 HR/9 both say he should've fared much better.
Felix Romero - 7.91 K/BB in 2005.
Rich Hill - routinely fanned 12. Walks below 2 a couple of times. Actually had 0.7 HR and 6.6 hits/9 in the minors. But, in the MLB, walks exploded (4.0 for his 400 innings career). He managed to put together 1.5 good seasons. But, again - he did NOT have the hit problem in the minors that Fister has shown.
Chirs Gissell - managed 1.7 / 7.3 in AAA in 2004. Again, with a solid 7.9 hits allowed. He's 30, and still can't make the Show.
Richie Gardner had 1.5 / 8.0 numbers to begin his minors career in 2004. When he hit AAA, his hits/9 skyrocketed into double digits - and his control vanished completely.
Steve Bray - 1.2 and 7.9 in 2006 - 1.0 / 8.1 in Huntsville that year. But, couldn't sustain it as he failed repeatedly to climb the farm rungs.
Denny McDaniel - 1.5 and 9.2 in 2002. But, a decent 9 hits per game. Had a decent 2004 (2.9 / 8.3), but collapsed in '06 and was out of baseball.
Travis Thompson - 1.9 / 7.0 in 2003. Solid 8.7 hits. But, his H/9 were double-digit before that spike - and they returned to double-digits afterword. His career was done after 2006.
Brady Borner - 1.6 / 8.9 as a rookie in '01. 1.1 and 7.7 in '02, (only 8 hits per game). Unable to master AA -- and out of baseball after '06.
Nate Cotton - 1.0 / 9.0 in '01. 1.5 and 9.8 in '03, (nice 7.7 h/9). Unable to sustain the control in AAA, (walks up in the 3-4 arena), as his Ks dropped each year after reaching AAA. In '09 he was down to 4.0 / 5.6.
The real point here is that the entire PURPOSE of strikeouts is to REDUCE HITS. The K by itself is no more valuable than a soft grounder to first. It's still an out. But, Ks have value because they remove the 30% of the time the BIP becomes a hit. If your NORMAL 7-K pitcher is allowing 8 hits per game (for example), while your 5-K pitcher is allowing 9 -- the REASON the 7-ks have value is because the opposition gets fewer hits. But, if your 7-K pitcher is allowing 11 hits -- he's getting ZERO value form *ANY* of the Ks. If he is actually surrendering hits at the same rate as a (for example) 2-K (or less) pitcher -- then the Ks don't matter.
Fister is CLEARLY outside the normal SABR boundaries. *NOBODY* sustains sub-1 walk rates. It doesn't happen. Basing a conclusion off a stat that is clearly and completely throughout the entirety of history UNSUSTAINABLE is seriously bad analysis.
I get that you WANT to put Fister in the Duchscherer mold. In '03, Justin posted a 1.0 / 6.8 split with a 0.7 HR rate. But, he only allowed 8.8 hits. Thats an extra 2+ hits allowed by Fister. A "standard" SABR analysis might well pair up Fister with J.D. But, that ignores the minor league 2-hit different (8.5 to 10.4) between the two. That's why the comp falls apart. Because the basic foundation premise of WHY Ks have value has been lost in the analytical weeds.
At this point - I don't think Fister or Olson actually meets the minimum entry requirements for MLB. Olson is obvious to the SABE's because his weakness is gopheritis, which shows up nicely on the TTO charts. Fister's tell is outside the TTO Holy Trinity - so the group-think is that it isn't his fault.
The TTO formula work - but only on guys WITHIN certain boundaries. The sub-1 walk-rate is by definition outside that boundary - and cannot be maintained. I can't find ONE pitcher who maintained a sub-1 walk rate, regardless of K and HR rates - much less ten.
The 11-hit per game is another out-of-bounds stat.
A chemist can perform very accurate tests on metals - and they can reveal a lot of data. But, if the chemist attempts to test cotton, thinking it's metal the entire time, I suspect he's going to end up with a bunch of bad results.
Fister's 2.2 / 6.6 career splits in the minors aren't bad. That's top-flight control. And I suspect there are quite a few pitchers with those kind of career splits that has been decent MLB pitchers. But, I doubt ANY of them had career 10.4 H/9 number for the minors, (or 11.2 AAA H/9 numbers).
Washburn fools the analysts, because he doesn't get KS - but manages to consistently force weak contact - leading to a career-skewed BABIP beyond. His stats don't work in the TTO paradigm because some part of his game is outside its normal boundaries.
When talking about specs, specifically, I think the analysts' FIRST job is to decide whether you're dealing with an out-of-bounds player. Strasburg may well be an OOB guy, where the reasonable thing to do is NOT treat him as just 'another' #1 SP. I am thinking that back when I was arguing against treating him as special, I was likely wrong. It's because I was refusing to recognize that he IS an OOB guy.
My belief is that Fister is an OOB guy - but on the other end of the scale. I think Vargas and French remain borderline pitchers who might have some success. I think Olson at this point is pure AAAA - and his HR problems are unfixable. I think Fister is not even a AAA player. If my guess is right - he gets returned to AAA, is unable to regain the magic of '09 - and continues giving up a dozen hits a game in AAA until the club has had enough and just dumps him.
My larger concern is that my opinion of Zs pitcher acumen continues to drop.
In 2009, in particular, Fister had one of the PCL's worst team defenses behind him. That team routinely fielded Chris Shelton at THIRD BASE...Bryan LaHair in LEFT FIELD...stuff like that...because it had seventy billion 1B/DH guys fighting for PT. In fact, the Rainiers allowed over 9.8 H/9...which is 4th worst in all of AAA. They also allowed a world-beating number of errors...well in excess of an error per game. So yes...some of Fister's high hit rates have indeed been OUT OF HIS CONTROL. Not all of it...your point about his having been fairly hittable still stands...but let's not exaggerate things.
But, how many pitchers in the history of history have SUSTAINED a 7:1 K/BB, (regardless of hits or HRs allowed), is an abberation. It is unsustainable.
I see the logic as: "He did something that nobody in history has shown an ability to repeat -- therefore, we think he's going to be something special! (say, what?!?)
In 20 minutes I pulled out 10 pitchers who had similar one-time spikes in performance who went on to do nothing whatsoever.
I'm not saying out-of-bounds results by themselves mean failure. I'm saying out-of-bounds results MUST be viewed w/o hard-fast adherence to the accepted formula. Combine the 7:1 ratio WITH the 11 hits/9 -- and your pool of comps drops to zero. There aren't any comparable pitchers I can find anywhere. The closest I've seen IS Silva - though I fully accept that his Ks are not in the same range as Fisters -- but Silva did his miracle for 188 innings against major leaguers, while Fister did it for 110 in AAA.
While I was spending my 20 minutes looking for 7:1 failures - I was glancing for double-digit hits-allowed successes. I didn't see *ANY*. (I suspect there's gotta be some somewhere - this was 'by-hand' fishing - and I only got thru about 6 total minor league seasons to fill out my 10 7:1 failures). So, WHAT IF double-digit hits allowed in the minors is a 100% guarantee of major league failure?
If 7:1 K/BB is 100% success (which it clearly isn't), but 11-H/9 is 100% failure, what does the analyst conclude?
I think Pool of Zero is playing the Showbox tonight. They RAWK!
Those 10 pitchers were the first 10 that matched the criteria, unedited? Why do you think all 10 flunked out?
Even looking at a random list of 3:1 CTL pitchers, you wouldn't see 10-for-10 flunk out. Any theories as to why your first 10 were all zeroes?
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Second question. It is your best judgment that the next 7:1 CTL pitcher in the PCL will have no better chances than any other random PCL pitcher? Is that the debate proposition here?
................
Will take a look, when I get time, as to whether your 10 were reasonable comps for Doogie. Thanks for the list.
In fairness, I missed the "unedited" part of your initial request. But, that said, there's only one remember that I specifically skipped over - (Duchscherer - 1.8 / 9.4 in '01).
But, I wasn't going out of my way to exclude guys. My methodology was simple. BBREF minor leagues - I pulled up Carolina League (my local one) and PCL. I went back to 2005 - (give some time to maybe reach the majors) - and pulled up the league pitching lists. The good news is they have the H/K/BB per 9 columns. The bad news - they aren't sortable. So, I just eyeballed the BB/9 column for sub 1 walks. They don't exist in any significant number - which is why most of the examples are 1.something walk rates.
As to why so many failed? I suspect it's probably because I picked the Carolina League, which (I had forgotten) back in 2005 was high-A, (and there were a LOT more comps in the Carolina League than the PCL). I had MAJOR trouble finding examples in the PCL with even sub-2 BB/9 rates. So, most of the examples are Carolina League. But, even there I skipped other examples - (low innings - like Bear Bay (1.6 and 9.0). Then, I went backward from '05 (2004, 2003, etc.) until I reached 10.
But, without exception, every 7:1 (ish) case I could find was CLEARLY (in hindsight) a significant abberation from subsequent performance. Most of these guys had good control - but normally ran near 3 BBs per game, instead of near 1. So, those 7:1 ratios in spike years were almost always closer to 7:3 ratios normally. And 7:3 ratios are REALLY common.
I think by PCL-time, the hitters are good enough where the sub-2 walk years become too rare. If I look JUST at PCL, starting in '05 and going backward - looking just for sub-2 walk rates:
Ezequiel Astacio: 1.6 / 7.8 - (hits at 7.3).
Aquilino Lopez: 1.6 / 9.1 - (8.6 hits)
Jason Kershner: 1.6 / 6.6 - (7.5 hits)
Chris Gissell: 1.7 / 7.3 - (7.9 hits)
Travis Driskill: 1.9 / 6.5 - (11.4)
Brian Tollberg: 1.6 / 6.0 - (11.9)
John Wasdin: 1.6 / 7.0 - (8.1)
Jason Simnontacchi 1.3 / 6.1 - (11.2)
Justin Germano 1.8 / 7.2 - (8.3)
Joe Blanton 1.7 / 7.3 - (10.2)
Blanton would be the closest 'positive outcome' comp I can find from PCL 2004. But, Blanton was running 9+ Ks in early farm days - and the 10.2 hits was a personal abberation, (8.6 for minor league career).
Driskill, Tollberg and Simontacchi would be *my* top comps - because they've got the eye-popping control ratios AND the high hit marker.
=======
As for question #2: Personally, I think the next 7:1 pitcher who is allowing below 9-hits a game is a VERY likely candidate to make the majors. I think the next 7:1 PCL pitcher posting 11 hits per game is likely going to be a flop.
======
It's my view that the TTO look at pitchers works BECAUSE the talent pool has been largely "vetted" to exclude those out-of-bounds pitchers. Some will sneak into the mix for short periods - but are quickly sent packing. At the MLB level, only a couple of pitchers per year will get significant innings while allowing double-digit hits. (Pavano, Balckburn and Guthrie were it in 2009). The Twins seem to have a real talent for keeping this type of pitcher afloat. But, even for them, these pitchers end up with EXTREMELY erratic performance patterns, (like Silva).
Hey. I could be wrong. Maybe Fister is one of these singularities that can allow 11 hits a game and still be serviceable. But, I think these guys bounce between ERAs of 3.80 and 6.80 because they are the defining line between major league talent and not. And my belief is that Fister is on the wrong side of that line.
Fister is *NOT* an 11 H/9 pitcher Sandy. Until you acknowledge this, I'm going to keep repeeating it. The 09 Rainiers were among the worst defenses in front of which he will ever pitch. Maybe he's a 10 H/9 pitcher...but he's not an 11 H/9 pitcher.
Tacoma was near the bottom of the PCL in H/9 - (9.8 H/9). I am perfectly willing to accept that "some" of Fister's Hits might be due to a poor defense. But, let's look at the 4 pitchers for Tacoma in 2009 who actually threw 100 or more innings:
Andrew Baldwin - 9.6 - H/9; 6.1-K/9 - (the most obscure Baldwin brother :-)
Gaby Hernandez - 9.7 - H/9; 6.0-K/9
Chris Seddon - 9.6 - H/9; 5.5-K/9
Doug Fister - 11.2 - H/9; 6.7-K/9
Fister had the BEST K-rate - but allowed 1.5 more H/9 than the other starters.
The PCL as a whole allowed 9.5 H/9. Tacoma - as a team - was 0.3 worse than that. Fister specifically was 1.7 worse than that. That's still about a hit and half that really looks like credit/blame goes to Fister.
But, I could easily excuse the 11.2 as an abberation - except Fister was allowing 10.7 and 10.4 hits in AA. While his control numbers spiked - his H/9 got WORSE.
I'm referring to him as an 11-hit pitcher - not because he was "really" an 11 hit pitcher in AAA -- (though adjusting for the team 0.3, that would make him a 'legit' 10.9 AAA pitcher). But, because the competition in the majors is HARDER. He's giving up 10.4 hits per game for the entirety of his minor league career.
While some players do improve performance after reaching the majors - the "normal" minors-to-major conversion charts expect players to perform slightly worse - because they are facing better overall competition.
Okay - the PCL allows 9.5 hits per game - while the AL allows 9.2 (in 2009). Perhaps calling him an 11-hit pitcher is overstating things. But, since the competition is better in the majors, it could also be understating things.
In the most egregiously forgiving conversion I can imagine - let's forgive Fister the 0.3 for PCL to AL *AND* the 0.3 for Tacoma compared to the PCL. That would knock 0.6 off his AAA hits/9 -- putting him at 10.6 H/9 with Seattle.
In any case, I see Fister pretty much allowing 1.5 more hits than his defensive context from the start of his pro career through today. I think - in the midst of his career year, he got called up - and with an aggregate 8.4 H/9 defense - his skew was ONLY 0.9 above that (9.3 H/9) during 2009.
My view is that the reality that he had his career WORST H/9 at precisely the time he was (by TTO methods) pitching the absolute best of his career -- that it is highly unlikely that he'll be able to sustain his 2009 success. My view is that - once booked by the league - Fister could easily EXCEED 11 hits per game allowed.
What's funny to me is that it's actually some things YOU have said in the past that opened my mind to the entire concept of the out-of-bounds players. When HoRam and Weaver were getting pounded - you were at the forefront saying the defense wasn't actually as bad as the numbers, because Weaver and HoRam were serving up BP pitchers that just weren't making it over the fence.
Eventually, I came to realize that when pitchers are below standard OR when they are injured, the McCracken rule ceases to apply. There is a point at which pitchers DO become responsible for hits allowed instead of the defense. I'm suggesting Fister is such a pitcher. If I'm wrong - maybe he can become Washburn. If I'm right - he might survive a year, posting a decent 200 innings - but when the teensiest drop occurs, his results become seriously ugly overnight, (like Silva).
Just to be clear...I agree with you that it's a bad sign when a pitcher'ss H/9 goes way up as his control ratio gets better...and I think it's entirely possible for a pitcher to break the TTO diagnostic spectrum that way. Jeff Weaver was one example of this...Fister could be another...that's why I created DNRA. Recall that DNRA attempts to capture the total deflection from the team's established defensive performance when X pitcher is NOT on the mound (so we look at the Mariners' H/9 in 2007 IGNORING the zillions of hits Weaver was giving up and Weaver's outs)...the goal being to try to quantify the diffreence in NON-DIPS performance that occurs when any one pitcher is in the game (his impact on balls in play). So yes...I agree that Fister may be a high-hit pitcher. I don't think that disqualifies him from potentially being a useful big league pitcher, though it means it's going to be difficult.
Andrew Baldwin, 2007 in West Tenn:
166 IP, 12 HR, 19 BB, 115 K or 0.7 HR/9, 1.0 BB/9, 6.2 K/9 and 193 H or 10.5 H/9
I noticed that he'd pitched 8 IP so far in Tacoma without a walk and looked him up.
Career in 7 MiLB seasons: 0.8 HR/9, 1.8 BB/9, 5.9 K/9 and 10.1 H/9
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=baldwi001and
Fister: 0.8 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.6 K/9 and 10.4 H/9
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=fister001dou
But the career numbers would obscure the "plateau-leap" argument.