The M's fascination with this pokey has reached epic proportions, as they now put him on the marquee as their 3-hole hitter.
Why?
Because Kotchman is good at staying out of double plays. The only thing we got goin' for us is all those first-and-thirds this year. Gotta get a batter who meshes with 'em.
:blinks:
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=== Don't Shoot the Messenger Dept. ===
SSI has warned since the day Kotchman signed, that Kotch is:
So, okay. Let's double-check the ground-into-DP rates ...
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=== Let's! Go To! the Vid! e-o Tape! Dept. ===
Kotchman GIDP's into 17 double plays per 162 games, career and lately both. Let's put it into relief; these are the M's who have played at least 160 games in the majors:
So here is Kotchman at 17 per full season, coming off a .382 SLG in 2009 -- .287 SLG in the American League portion of 2009 -- and he looks good at #3 because he does have the skill of not grounding into DP's. After all, the only thing we've got going for us is all the times the #1 and #2 hitters will be on.
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I personally don't respect Wakamatsu and Zduriencik any (a-n-y) less when they do something that I think is clearly a blunder. Bobby Fischer blundered. Infallibility is not only not my minimum standard for respecting people, it's not even possible.
I do think that at some point the current admin will lose its current air of mystique with the blog-o-sphere, which will eventually converge on The Truth that lies at Grand SSI Central. ;- )
Z and Wok aren't perfect, but they are the best rookie managers to come along in a good long while...
They're not magic. They're not uniquely, or even particularly, sabermetric. But they are a lot better at their jobs than most of their peers.
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If we sat down to $22 albacore salads with Z and Wok, they'd give us reasons for Kotchman #3 that they didn't give in the newspaper.
Wok is, of course, aware of Kotch's groundball rates, aware of the fact that Kotchman's BIP's bounce 2x before finding a mitt, and aware of his career GIDP rates. Even if he weren't stat-literate, Wakamatsu's been in the same division with Kotchman, watching him play.
In private, the M's would have a real reason for hitting Kotchman third. Starting with, this is one whale of a lousy offense. There's nobody else to put there.
Cheers,
Dr D
Adjusting for PAs, Kotchman's DPs are actually higher.
League average per 691 PAs is 14.
Kotchman's average is 20.5.
Wak needs to look at the stat sheet on this one. As a #3 hitter behind Ich-Figgins, Kotchman's DPs would be even higher.
Thanks for the legwork.
Yeah, that's exactly the worry: you take a GIDP problem and you put him exactly behind your two singles hitters...
If Kotchman played full-time behind those two he would easily rack up 25-30 GIDP's this season, like Lopez' 25 last year. I dunno about you, but I don't think Kotchman's RAR can take the DP hit...
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You think Wok overlooked this Taro? Or you think he's just saying that because he needs to say something?
Honestly, I think it kind of silly to compare Kotchman to speedy lead-off hitters. If you're comparing Kotchman's hitting to other 1Bs - then it is only fair to compare his base-running to other 1Bs. Comp him to Garko and Sexson and Fielder, by all means. Seriously - a big function of GDPs is that you hit in an RBI position - and you've got lots of guys on base in front of you.
Truthfully, I see Kotchman as a role-of-the-dice. I like the "profile" of Kotchman in terms of age/hidden upside. But, every Gabe Gross doesn't work out.
No, he's unlikely to turn into Brian Giles with the Ms. But, I suspect if he did, the blogs would spend the next few years with every "say-what" pick-up by Z going - "what the heck am I missing?"
:)
Kotchman was the worst of them.
We're not discussing whether Kotchman is worse than other 1B's. We're discussing whether he's worse than other M's.
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That said, any flyball hitter is going to hit into fewer GIDP's; Griffey's rate was 1/3 Kotchman's last year.
Bradley's GIDP rate was 25% lower than Kotchman's and that's before you isolate to the RHP's that Kotchman will face (Bradley will get out of the LH box in those games, so should hit #3 vs RHP's if GIDP's is the deciding factor).
Kotchman is a slow guy who hits tons of groundballs. I think this one is pretty straightforward; GIDP evasion is not a reason to hit Kotch behind the two SB stars.
If Casey Kotchman is hitting 300/380/500 at the break, I'll joyfully hold him up as one more example of how the M's were once again two steps ahead of us. :- )
In 2009, they did this to me with the bullpen and with Aardsma in particular. I thought for sure that bullpen was looking down the barrel of huge problems, but the M's proved me wrong with an underline.
Same thing on Branyan hitting against LHP's. The stats looked to me like Branyan was going to have a miserable time, but Zduriencik had him in Milwaukee and *knew* it was going to work out the way it did.
It's possible that Z will pull another Branyan. If he does, we'll all put the move in the Z-Obiesance Hall of Fame.
I think Wak overlooked this because Kotchman hasn't hit in double play yet in ST.
I think all players should be compared to average since that is the actual benefit/penalty the team's recieve. WAR already accounts for positional difference via defensive run adjustments.
That said, the league average rate for 1B last season was 15.5 per 691 PAs. Of course 1B combined for a 846 OPS last season so part of this was due to more runners on base.
The vast majority of Kotchman's PAs are in the 5th-7th spots. His GIDP rate will go up as a 3rd hitter behind two on-base machines.
GIDP does not count DP on LD to infielders.
So you do not have the entire data.
Once we refined the data to correct for that?
Some players LIDP a lot more than others?
:guinness:
... that if Kotchman is going to hit a blizzard of 2-hoppers, well, if you've got slow guys on 1B in front of him, you're doomed...
At least he can run in front of Kotchman if he's #3... this would lower Kotchman's GIDP-per-groundball-with-runners-on rate :- )
I'm sure the math would NOT work out, but he may be thinking, "I'll run in front of Kotch"...
No, I should have clarified that this is GIDP. Kothcman GIDP in 20.5 per 691 PAs in his MLB career and interestingly enough thats the exact same rate as his minor league career.
I got lazy and dropped the GI.
c-points
Baker on the Mar. 22 show, by the way, states that Kotchman probably will be the 3 hitter.
And that the Mariners have worked with Kotchman to stop swinging for power and to hit more for contact. (Am I reading these stats wrong? Is that a 7 in his HR column for last year?)
Not often that a new 3 hole hitter has me as stoked as this guy does. :- )