1
trading Gillies didn't really impact our availability of a high-minors Jacoby Elssbury clone?
Nice. The gift that keeps on giving, indeed.
POTD Ezequiel Carrera
And so, at long last, the 1970's-era SSI green radar screen finally picks up the Carrera bogey...
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=== Today ===
Got cut, prompting moonlight to reflect the sun's opinion that Carrera could see action in Safeco Field at age 23.
Ironically, getting dropped from the travelling squad, with this particular timing, finally alerted Dr. D to the fact that Carrera is in the M's plans.
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=== WOB-jection ===
Reasons that SSI was so slow to come around, on such a blog-o-sphere fave:
(1) The skill that makes Carrera special is his sky-high OBP. But ML pitchers will see a little guy like that and make him hit himself on. At least, that is the default assumption on a little guy like him. Guilty, until proven innocent, of a Joey Cora ceiling.
(2) Even supposing he's Jacoby Ellsbury: we got a center fielder already.
But the word out of the M's camp is that Carrera might indeed be able to translate his minors success into some MLB walks.
So, okay. And that jibes with a .441 OBP, age 22 in AAA, that roughly does imply a .380 OBP at age 26.
And, supposing that the M's do have (say) Ichiro, Guti, and a .300/.380/.500 Saunders in left... what a 4th outfielder THIS dude would make, neh...
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=== BaseballHQ ===
In their Minor League Analyst, available here, Gordon and Deloney report thusly:
- 7B prospect: probably will be a major-league regular (!)
- Lean and athletic
- Plays within his game, keeping ball on ground (a la Ichiro - Dr D)
- Small body, "lack of load in swing" rules out HR, but can hit gaps
- (Plus range, minus arm, minus routes)
It's funny, because the bit of video I've seen, Carrera actually loads up pretty good, as does Endy Chavez, for example. I wonder if that's stereotyping (re: his size) or not.
He's listed at 180 lbs., but as HQ notes, that may be as much lean body mass as for another guy weighing 195. Watching Carrera, I don't get the impression that his power is an automatic "30." He could grow into 50 power, maybe, like Johnny Damon's at. Who knows.
...........
HQ has Carrera at #13 in the M's org, which puts him among the top 10 hitters in what HQ regards as baseball's most position-player-rich organization.
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=== Career Arc ===
A .441 OBP, leading a strong AA league in the high minors, at 22 years of age. Huh.
Had Carrera done that one year earlier, at 21, he'd have gotten a Returning Champion Exemption to Bill James' Wimbledon tourney and been a Grade A prospect by definition.
We remember when nobody in the world bought into Shin-Soo Choo's age-21 year in AA. D-O-V screeched from the rooftops that the [AA success] x [95 mph arm, 550-CF power, SB speed] made Choo a blue-chipper by definition. His AA success impressed exactly no one.
Carrera isn't a "name" player, except to SABRMatt, but the fact is that Carrera's AA season commands respect. Zduriencik traded for him, before the stats were glitzy, and then Carrera just exploded in 2009.
.................
I suppose I've got to admit that I'm slow on the uptake here.
Carrera follows a sensational 2009 by going to MLB camp, at 23, and wow'ing the big league staff there.
.................
Two months more of .400-and-plenty OBP in the high minors, and I've got to grudgingly admit that Carrera becomes a top-100-in-baseball type prospect.
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=== The Gift that Keeps On Giving ===
Staggering to reflect on the fact that Carrera was one more throwin, in the epic Putz trade that was Waterloo for Duke Zduriencik.
Did Zduriencik really get any less for Putz and Valbuena than Billy Beane did for Dan Haren, when Haren was one of the 5 best starters in baseball?
Very similar structure, too: Beane got a glam ML-ready outfielder and five dynamic (though not famous) prospects. Zduriencik got Gutierrez as the centerpiece .... Cleto, Carp, Carrera, Vargas for the minors ... Heilman and Chavez for the 25-man.
Is San Diego really going to wind up with any more than that for Adrian Gonzalez, if and when the fans lose interest in 2010 and they get serious?
I got your moneyball right here, pal.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
2
Would be interesting to know where the Phils' and M's talks went relative to these two players. Which is the better prospect?
Supposedly the Phils pegged Gillies as a more desirable prospect than Michael Saunders (!), which .... Saunders was the #4 guy in the PCL.
................
BaseballHQ's staff has Carrera as a 7B, Gillies an 8C -- 70% chance of regular vs 50% chance of being a star. Gillies is considerably higher-rated per HQ.
3
seems to be an edge in eye ratio for Gillies, and a couple more HR's. They've both hit tons of triples the last couple of years, so that basically evens out.
Gillies of course has the edge in age/performance, but Carrera is already proven at AA.
Amazing how quickly our no-bat farm has transformed.
4
I have no problem with admitting to a bit of a man crush on Gillies. I hated losing him almost as much as I hated losing Luis Valbuena the year prior. I'm beginning to think that my interest in a prospect is a kiss of death...
Gillies is faster than Zeke, much faster. Gillies had one of if not THE strongest arm in our system. Because of his arm strength, a lot of folks were projecting that more power is coming.
I have never been on the Saunders lovetrain and I probably never will. To me, he has AAAA stamped on his forehead. Makes me think of Jeremy Reed WAAAAY too much.
Lonnie
5
If Gillies is bigger, stronger, and faster than Carrera, well of course the Phillies are as old-school as it gets ... hard to imagine an old-school scout looking at the two players and preferring Carrera...
From a James standpoint, that gaudy .441 OBP is of more interest (in the abstract) than physical tools ... in Moneyball there's a long section on Billy Beane's efforts to pry away a very young Kevin Youkilis from the Expos, simply because of the OBP...
6
I haven't been able to find any at all.
7
This the same guy?
8
Could be better quality, but we'll take it. I'm hoping someone grabs some video of him this spring. And I'll be getting some once PCL ball starts up.
I'll add it to my list.
9
And would you agree, it looks like he takes a pretty fair rip at the ball?
10
It's tough to pay attention to the moving parts with that quality of video.
It doesn't look like there is much load there. Bat speed + swing path back up the stats (to me, anyway), lots of grounders and low line drives.
I've heard it compared to Felix Pie's swing in the past. Would like to compare now that we have some Carrera vid.
11
.411 BABIP last year though, although the BB% is high.
The upside hitting-wise is probably someone like Figgins, but how does he rate defensively? That might be key to his future value.