=== Disbelief in the Crucible Dept. ===

Jim Caple, an ESPN writer who came from Seattle, was on the radio talking about Edgar's Hall of Fame candidacy.

Caple has a vote on HOF'ers, and he was asked if 30-odd percent would lead to a HOF election.  He replied, definitely higher than I was expecting....

For a long time, sez Caple, I resisted Edgar's nomination.  People would work on me, he sez, and no matter what they said, I stuck with "the Designated Hitter is a spot in the lineup.  It's not a position."

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=== You Can Suppress Truth for a Day or a Year or a Decade, But... ===

Caple mann'd up and admitted, the argument that did have an effect, that softened it up a little: "If Edgar had been a bad first baseman, would you vote for him?"

Of course, concedes Caple.  But he wasn't a 1B.  He wasn't a position player at all.

Then came the day when somebody converted Caple in one sentence. 

As they were sitting together watching a Mariners game, a comrade pointed out at Ichiro.  You voting him for the Hall of Fame?

Sure, says Caple.  If Ichiro never plays another game, he's in the Hall.

Would you rather have Edgar, or Ichiro, on your team.

It hits like a load of bricks.  I'd rather have Edgar, and if I'd rather have Edgar on my team than that other Hall of Famer out there, the arguments against the DH don't hold up.

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=== Win Shares ===

This is exactly the type of Grand Question that Bill James invented Win Shares for.  Would you rather have Steve Carlton or Johnny Bench?  Would you rather have Joe DiMaggio or Ted Williams?  If you were picking up sides, would you rather have Sandy Koufax' career or Ron Santo's?

These are great questions, mostly untouched, that have everything to do with 21st-century drafts and with 21st-century trades.   Would you rather have Brandon League or Brandon Morrow?  Josh Fields, or a league-average 1B?

Edgar Martinez' Win Shares compare favorably to the typical Hall of Famer's.  Not to the minimum Hall of Famer:  to the average one.

And if you'd rather have Edgar Martinez on your team, for Edgar's whole career, than Kirby Puckett, than all of the arguments against the DH's value are quibbles.  They're rationalizations.  They're nothing more than statements that baseball used to be better in 1969 than it became in 1972.

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=== Ichiro ===

As to whether you'd actually rather have Edgar's career than Ichiro's ... that's an awesome question, isn't it?   What's more important, a duck or a cat?  Could you get two position players* with less in common?   Yet Ichiro is Edgar's direct successor in the Hall of Fame Mariner line.

Ichiro has averaged >50 runs above a bench player for the last 7 seasons in a row.  And that +50 mark probably undersells him:

• Ichiro is the best defensive RF in the game, by far, but gets 'only' 11 runs a year compared to the lumbering RF's around baseball
• Many invisible runs on the bases are lost to RAR
• Leadoff hitters gain effectiveness as the game is closer

Still, with Edgar, you were talking about a .450 OBP and a .550-.600 SLG.  He routinely created 140 runs per year, easily 50-60 runs better than league average, never mind better than replacement level.

Putting down the slide rule for a second, in 1995 it was totally clear to everybody that Edgar Martinez meant more to the M's than Buhner or even Ken Griffey Jr., an inner-circle HOF'er.  Without Edgar, the M's were nowhere near the Angels, the playoffs or, shortly, the state of Washington.

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=== It's Good to Be King ===

It's one thing to ask, "which player would you pick for your team this year."  It's a different thing to ask, "who would you pick all time."

Felix is 23 years old, and has won 58 games in the major leagues.   Erik Bedard, at 31 years of age, has won 51.  Cliff Lee has only won 90.

You'd go back in baseball history a loooooooong time to find somebody who, at 23, you would clearly pick for your team before you'd pick Felix Hernandez.  You could give me Felix over any pitcher since WWII, at age 23, and I wouldn't feel bad about taking Felix.

The King is a 23-year-old for the ages.

Remember that "Greatest Pitching Prospect Who Ever Lived" tag from several years back?  We were a little sheepish about it in 2007-08, when Felix was running 4, 4.5 ERA's.   But pre-night baseball notwithstanding, "Greatest 23-Year-Old Who Ever Lived" isn't far off the mark with Felix.

Theo Epstein said that of all players in baseball, the one he'd start his team with would be Felix.  We've got Jack, and that's what he's startin' with.

Cheers,

Dr D