=== Cliff Lee ===
From Day One, Cliff Lee has made noises about extending, that are a good one or two notches friendlier than we'd expected.
And this week, the quotes ramp it up, with the subtext like "if it doesn't work out to sign before the season" and "if I have to go to free agency, fine" and like that. Not exactly in those words, but that's the vibe.
Shannon Drayer, on her blog, taps what is in Lee's mind ... drumroll ... when you go to free agency, says Cliff, you commit to a team without knowing whether you'll like it there.
Am not sure why I never thought of it in exactly those words...
..............
Zduriencik consistently executes his game plan: let Cliff Lee get comfortable in Seattle, and then negotiate.
It hearkens back to the Dale Carnegie win-win days: you've got two reasonable men; why shouldn't they come to an understanding?
Honestly, Zduriencik's has an almost supernatural feel for business negotiation, and for talent recruitment in particular. I thought he was supposed to be a scout.
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=== Same Birthday as Dr. D, Minus a Week ===
Looking at Cliff Lee's game, you see a lot that reminds you of Dr. D's birthday twin Jamie Moyer:
Jamie Moyer with a 91 fastball would be illegal. Billy Beane thought that even at 87 mph, he was more frustrating to hit than Pedro Martinez.
There are a coupla differences, granted. Lee doesn't quite have Moyer's dead-fish changeup and so his BABIP isn't as scintillating as Moyer's was. Lee is certainly more of a power pitcher, attacks the hitters with an 18-inch chain as opposed to willow-switching them across the face until they break down in tears.
But still, you're talking about smooth, CG-balanced, graceful lefties painting the black like Rembrandt and out-thinking hitters.
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=== Random Noodling ===
Don't know where to put this in the article, but I don't understand why Cliff Lee throws his breaking ball so seldom. At times, it almost looks like Erik Bedard's.
Lee uses his yakker as a parsley garnish to the FB-change meat and potatoes. The few times I've seen him, the curve was my favorite pitch. ? Maybe his curve has developed bite recently?
Lee is the real blinkin' deal, there are no doubts about that.
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=== Don't Let 'im Fool Ya Out There ===
SSI has warned that because they don't show fatigue as clearly, butter-smooth lefties tend to be ridden too hard. Until they break down. But Jamie Moyer, of course, never did break down, and Cliff Lee has been remarkably injury-free.
Moyer's path to durability, despite that fact that he weighed 118 lbs., was:
You can take it from there, as to whether Cliff Lee matches up with Jamie on the above three points. I don't know whether Cliff Lee has the commendable habit of managing his own pitch counts.
But I do know that I'm okay with having a RH Felix followed by a LH 91mph Jamie Moyer.
The more so if they get that Steve Carlton guy going third day, fanning 10 men per ballgame and sponging up whatever chunks of grue were left by the first two fiends.
I'll sit in the view level with a box of Kleenex. Man, I love Stars & Scrubs.
Enjoy,
Jeff
I would love to lock Lee up depending on the terms.
The Ms aren't exactly loaded with SP talent in the minors and a durable lefty killer like Lee is a perfect fit for our situation.
My only concern is the cutter.. but Lee has good mechanics and doesn't supinate any of his other pitches.
I would imagine it will happen. Meaning, I would guess that he's re-signed.
Agree on our lack of depth in starting pitching. Locking up 10+ WAR in your 1-2 punch makes the rest of the roster assembly quite a bit simpler in the coming years.
Seems I read that Lee and the Phils were talking 3/$58-60m.
In the words of Sinjin Smythe, "sounds quite reasonable!" I wonder if the M's could sweet-talk Lee into 4 x $18m with no-trades etc etc.
They can expand payroll a bit as the playoff money comes rolling in and the attendance flies past 3 million.
Halladay got pretty much something around there though right?
I wonder if 4/$70 or 3/$55 does it? I'd definetly back a deal like that. :-)
reasonable deals that he'd agree to. He might want vesting options and other stuff that makes it possible for him to get the vaunted $100m mark, which I'd be perfectly fine with. It's not like his pitcher *profile* ages terribly, the only risk is you wake up one morning and his shoulder decided to give up the ghost.
Two years ago we'd have been forlornly talking about $125, $150m deals.
As you have often noted, Taro, the market is way down. About 20-30% this winter, and maybe more than that in terms of years.
Lee is one tough hombre. Him and Felix 1-2 and the M's are instantly legit, Capt Jack's other coups aside.
Will Seattle sign both Lee and Gonzalez to rich extensions when they've already got so much cash tied up in the Ichiro-Felix-Figgins trifecta?
If not... who gets the cash?
The M's have a LOT of unspent payroll in the speedloader, but yeah, thass' ay prow-blem...
$18m to Felix and Lee, the same to AGone and Ichiro, $9m to Figgins, that's $80m on five players, very well spent.
The rest is going to be going to Scrubs. You build around those five vets, then you're going to be using Ackley, RRS, Fister, Saunders, Tui, Moore, etc etc down the rest of the way.
Have not seen somebody pencil out what the payroll would have to be, to extend Lee and also bring in AGone. But the M's have been in on Gonzalez, right? Maybe that's why they're pinching pennies even on a $4-5m Washburn deal?
I definitely think $80M would be well spent on that core. However, will the M's agree? I think we have the parts to put around them... but you have to admit, kicking the budget back up to $120M so that we have even $40 MM to fill out the team (including Gutierrez...) makes for a thin budget with little margin for error.
I'd take the risk. But I don't see the M's FO doing so... at least, I'm not confident that they will. I hope so!
You've got production locked in, from your 1-2 SP's and 1-2-4 hitters, and you're resigned to using young players elsewhere.
You pick the wrong young players, you swap them out. It's the Civics way that forces you not to make errors :- )
Theres almost no way a Gonzalez extension works out for anyone either than Gonzalez himself and Boras.
Count me in as WAY against a rediculous extension for Gonzalez.
I'd be open to trading for him and keeping him for the next 2 years, but it depends on the cost. I'm guessing offering 3 non-elite prospects (like the Lee trade) won't get it done. If thats the case there are just far cheaper alternatives avalialbe and a loaded 1B offseason just a year away.
A vesting option for 230 IPs or whatever in the final year would be fine by me.. Something unlikely to vest like Figgins' 5th year.
Halladay's deal pretty much set the market for Lee:
3 years/$60M (2011-13), plus 2014 option
11:$20M, 12:$20M, 13:$20M, 14:$20M option
2014 option guaranteed with all of the following:
225 IP in 2013,
415 IP in 2012-13, and
Halladay is not on disabled list at end of 2013 season
As good as Lee is, hes not Halladay.. If you can negotiate him down $2-3mil per year from Halladay's deal, thats a pretty nice contract for both sides. 3 or 4 years gauranteed would be fine. :-)