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Interesting. Is this being discussed among the Mariners or is it just speculation?
Shawn Kelley as an SP?!
Shannon Drayer, whose entries this spring have been Baker-like in their attention to the crucial, broaches the subject of Shawn Kelley as a starting pitcher.
Needless to say, SSI is thrilled even with the discussion of such a thing. In the above article, Kelley says that he'd "be up for anything" and talks about starting in college. After the Aumont fiasco, what we wouldn't give to see a gifted pitcher moved in the right direction, towards more impact...
Shawn Kelley is a whale of a talented pitcher, one of the few in all the majors who can throw a 94 fastball with plus-plus command.
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=== Postgame April 3, 2009 ===
After Kelley's first appearance, here was our assessment. "Probably the M's 2nd- or 3rd-best reliever right now."
Kelley showed amazing command of a hot fastball, but what was weirder -- his body language stated that such command was typical for him. This turned out to be the case.
As noted in the article, if there were such a thing as a pitcher who could locate 93-94 every pitch, literally on the black, he would throw shutouts with 100% fastballs.
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=== POTD Dec 2009 ===
We were pleased to note that Ron Shandler is more excited about Kelley than we are. He sees Kelley as one of the game's top closers-in-waiting, projecting an UP of 20 saves even in 2010.
Archetype for Kelley: Jon Papelbon. 70% fastballs, 94, painted. One fairly good offspeed pitch to keep hitters from cheating too much.
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=== Linkage ===
Here is Jon Shields' phat writeup on Kelley. :daps:
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=== Two Pitches? ===
Kelley doesn't have a changeup. He throws two pitches -- and doesn't throw his fastball enough. When you can throw a ball two inches outside, where the ump calls it, why give the batter a break by throwing anything else?
Oh, I know what yer thinkin. In the rotation you need three pitches....
Siigggggh. Okay, here's this year's assortment of good ML starters who use only two pitches:
- Edwin Jackson: 65% FB, 28% sliders (1 in 14 pitches not a FB/SL)
- Josh Johnson: 68% FB, 25% sliders (1 in 14 different)
- AJ Burnett: 66% FB, 31% curves (1 in 30 a different pitch)
- Brad Penny: 71% FB, 18% curves (1 in 9 a different pitch)
- Johnny Cueto: 72% FB, 30% curves (1 in 12 a different pitch)
- Wandy Rodriguez: 57% FB, 37% curve balls (1 in 16 a different pitch)
- Erikkkk Bedard 100% FB-CV (Randy Johnson, Aaron Sele etc)
- Roy Halladay: 72% FB or cutter, 22% curve (1 in 16 other)
- There are others
You might reply, the above guys have special fastballs. Edwin Jackson is 96 mph; Josh Johnson is a groundballer, etc.
I might then reply, Shawn Kelley has a special fastball.
You might reply, the above guys at least show you their minus 3rd pitches once an inning.
I might then reply, Shawn Kelley can show you his changeup once an inning.
...............
If it's me, I put Kelley in there and find out whether he's a star in the major leagues. Even if I didn't have issues at the BOR.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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The below is my post from your December article on Kelley. Detailing Kelley's starting prowess during his college career
pls see this excerpt from Austin Peay's website
"...Kelley will most be remembered for his epic 10-inning appearance in the opening round of the 2007 NCAA Baseball Championship. Squaring off against Vanderbilt and starter David Price – the No. 1 pick in the 2007 draft – Kelley single-handedly kept Austin Peay in the game, allowing one run on five hits to the nation’s No. 1 squad. He struck out a season-high nine batters in those 10 innings and ran his streak of innings without a walk to 29 before leaving with the game tied 1-1..."
I also recall reading an article early 2009 on Kelley. He indicated that the M's placed him in the bullpen immediately upon reporting to the minors. He did hint in the article that he would like at shot at starting (I'm sure he won't complain about being in the BP as long as he is remains on the 25 man roster)
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Only threw 11 changeups on the year. Of course, that doesn't mean he doesn't have one. He just doesn't need it in relief. Maybe with more use it could be a good one.
One concern with Kelley as a starter, and the reason he was converted to the bullpen in the first place, is health. He had TJ surgery in college and dealt with some elbow injuries in the low minors. Once he landed in the 'pen he was in the big leagues in no time flat.
The article just implies that they want him to be more than a 1 inning guy, which makes sense if they're going to go with a short bullpen. I wouldn't get too excited about the SP possibility.
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Didn't specify whether she was (1) reacting to an intriguing vagueness on the M's part or (2) proposing the idea herself.
I was piqued because it would be a little out of character for her to initiate the idea and then go interview the pitcher about it, etc.
That could be misconstrued as stirring up stuff, if it were the reporter's idea. If the player is later in a QB controversy, the ballplayers are all ticked at the reporter. It's breaking code -- this not being NY -- for a reporter to go suggest roles to players.
The Mariners haven't said anything about it. If they're musing over it whatsoever, no harm having a case-for available ...
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Supposing that the rookie Kelley threw (1) a great fastball, (2) a quality slider and (3) a show-me changeup, then... he's not going to throw any changeups at all in short relief.
So, no telling how good his change is or isn't.
...................
Definitely easier to make the majors in the bullpen, no surprise there.
As to whether the M's view Kelley as a Mark Lowe type, just no way his arm holds up to starting, that's a good question.
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that one is a 100-cpoint'er dude.
Shawn Kelley vs David Price and the #1's. Wow.
29 innings without a walk in college... man...
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I love how you guys pick up anything some beat writer states about the team as fact. Guess you guys really believe Tui's a SS since he played the position and it was written about. You guys need to start thinking for yourselves.
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that make me remember why I like D-O-V lenses in my baseball conversations ;)
Browse the archives, champ. We've been debating the Tui-as-SS scenarios for awhile. Those conversations started back when we drafted him, I think.
It's a mental exercise, or at least mental stretching, to find potential issues with paradigms and point out that it's ok to step out of even the best boxes once in awhile. S'all we aim to do 'round here.
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If you also look back at the piles and piles of threads discussing the overall value of a MOR/TOR starter, compared to a back-end bullpen guy (just search Brandon Morrow, Mark Lowe or even Rafael Soriano if you wanna go WAY back) you'll see this is not a first-time-we've-had-this-particular-lightbulb-burst episode.
Discussing the pro's and con's of player utilization is one of the less-common topics in the blog-o-sphere for some reason. It's like if a player has only established himself as a middle innings guy, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves and discuss whether or not he would work out in a role at the back end. Or if a player has only *proven* to be a good platoon bat, that you shouldn't get excited about handing said player the starting gig at a corner position.
With all of the resources available to the M's 'sphere, it's funny how this is one of the only places where you'll get good discussion about *HOW* a player might best be utilized.
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Only problemo being, unsigned won't read your replies any more than he read the original article :- )
I'm amazed how few guys like that we get at SSI. Sometimes it seems like it's 1-in-1,000.
When you do get a Beavis now and then, it serves to remind (me, anyway) how fortunate we are to have a place for idea exchange. Some blogs have to clean the fishing line out of their gears on a constant basis.
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If any of the adults skimmed the article a little too fast .... Shannon Drayer wasn't even reporting Kelley-SP-as-fact, much less us repeating such an error.
She didn't so much as suggest that the Mariners decisionmakers were thinking about it. She mused about it, and we can only hope that shot-callers muse too...
From where I sit, Kelley-SP is kind of in the too-good-to-be-true category. A 93 fastball painted, you say? I'll take about a million of 'em, at 10 cents each.
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I seriously doubt Kelley can hold up to the rigors of starting long term in the big leagues. HOWEVER...we CAN turn him into a 100 inning reliever and there's at least some chance he could stand up to that for a few years. If the Mariners want to go with 11 pitchers for a while this year (please let it be to keep Sweeney and not some extra middle infielder to cover their butts!), they need a couple of their relief arms to be both reliable and durable enough for 80+ innings and/or 70+ appearances. Kelley could be one of those. So could League.
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Tacoma News Tribune is reporting that Shawn Kelley has been optioned to AAA Tacoma. This makes no sense whatsoever to me. None.
Link here: http://twitter.com/TNTmariners/status/13155066802
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Kelley to Tacoma sounds strange by itself.
But, the club is trying to hold onto K-Tex, because he's a Rule5 guy, (that they obviously think will come around). Another concern is who has option -- that they can demote without risk of losing.
But, the up side of Kelley to Tacoma would be to potentially experiment with turning him into an SP. The Doc is *REAL* high on the concept. Well, there is an industry-wide aversion to drastically increasing innings for pitchers. Since Kelley hasn't thrown big innings yet, (being a reliever), a trip to Tacoma could well be a chance to (at some point), transition him into a starting role, (which may or may not happen immediately on getting to Tacoma).
The concept would be to add 30 or 40 innings to Kelley's work load in 2010 -- and see how he adjusts to the SP role, (some guys lose their control when only pitching live every 5th day).
For 2011, the club is going to be looking hard at what to do in regards to Bedard and Lee. They could lose one or both. If they both pitch gangbusters this season, the odds of getting BOTH back is probably zero - (and even if successful would make their budget for improving the offense about a buck fifty).
If Kelley is truly the guy optioned to AAA, my guess would be this is the club weighing the FUTURE value of Kelley (in whatever role) as more critical than immediate value from Kelley. Honestly, with Aardsma, League and Lowe making a VERY solid 7/8/9 trio, Kelley's value to the Ms isn't 'hyper-critical' in general terms, (though the close game nature of the club construction mitigates that analysis somewhat).
My instinct would suggest that the Doc's take on Kelley might be right - and Kelley to Tacoma is long-term planning with RRS being moved to the long guy in the pen. Essentially, they might be planning to flip RRS/Kelley in regard to SP/RP roles.
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He's UNDER CONTRACT for 2011. Unless he declines 8 million dollars guaranteed (with all those injuries of his) in his mutual option...which would make him suicidally STUPID...he's staying put.
The question is...can we find a rotation to fit around half-a-Bedard and Felix WHEN Lee walks.