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Posted by

3/11/10

For starters: when a crack M's analyst differs with us in a comment, we don't put it on the front page in a spirit of debate. What happens is that guys raise points that are so intriguing that we "elevate" the point, as they say in the corporate world.

Guys know they are free to come back at us. :- ) It's about baseball.

Q. Sweeney wouldn't be a very good candidate to platoon with a LH bat. He hits righties better than he hits lefties. For his career, even.

A. Good point that Sweeney isn't a classic platoon hitter right now, as Ken Griffey Jr. certainly is, for example.

But: Law of Gravity Corner time. There isn't any question that RH hitters have less time against RH pitchers. Sweeney's own career "sample" aside, there are 10 million historic MLB AB's that give us an axiom to work with here. :- )

A hitter's last quality AB's, before retirement, will be with the platoon advantage.

.................

It is reasonable to project Sweeney to hit RHP's well again in 2010 -- but if you're predicting that, notice that you are also concluding that Mike Sweeney is not yet experiencing a bat slowdown due to age. (This may be true.)

At 36, I'd like to give Sweeney the luxury of that extra moment against LHP's, but I could be wrong.

:daps:

.................

Also, Sweeney's reverse platoon split is gentle: 860 or so vs RHP's, 825 or so vs LHP's. You don't necessarily use Sweeney DH vs Jon Lester because it's to Sweeney's advantage. You use Sweeney DH vs Lester because it's to Ken Griffey Jr's advantage.

Still and all, if you see Sweeney as better vs RHP's still, then you move past the simple LHP/RHP splits and you get Earl Weaver on it. Sweeney gets in there based on injuries, specific pitcher-batter matchups etc.

The 9-to-make-5 Beane roster allows you to play different cards out of your hand each go. If it's LHP vs RH, fine.

Q. I think it's a given that the Mariners will go with 12 pitchers -- my impression is that every team does nowadays.

A. This is something I don't have the information to address. (Hopefully somebody does, and will.) Is that true, that all 30 MLB teams use 12 pitchers, every year?

I'd be pretty surprised if 11 was no longer feasible in the 21st century -- but then, in the 1970's, the first team to use 11 was a phenomenon to us kids. So I'm biased. (Earl Weaver frequently used 9, and sometimes used 8. Homo sapiens' arms have not evolved all that much since 1975.)

What brought this up, of course, was the Mariners having two of the most durable pitchers in recent ML history, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee:

Lee: 231 IP last year
Felix: 238 IP last year
Workhorse starter: 200 IP
Lee + Felix - Workhorse x2 = 69 IP
David Aardsma IP: 71
QED

Lee and Felix are subtracting 70 innings from your bullpen over and above what 200-IP (!) starters would absorb. See what I'm sayin'? ::pittslurredspeech:: Only one guy can pitch at a time, right?

Suppose they hadn't acquired Lee, and then the M's told you they were going with 13-14 pitchers. Same IP-per-man. Ludicrous to use 13 or 14 pitchers, right?

We're conditioned to think that 12 is the correct number of pitchers. Actually, even if 12 were "correct," which I highly doubt :- ) that number would still have to flex +/- 1 based on whether any team's rotation was using 50 more, or fewer, IP.

...............

If Lee and Felix are going to go 235 apiece, you'll be mismanaging your bullpen to have seven guys down there.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

Sweeney wouldn't be ideal as

Sweeney wouldn't be ideal as a platoon hitter though. Garko is a much better fit for that role..
Its hard to see how Sweeney fits unless he can still hit and play so-so defense at 1B.. If that were the case, he'd be your main 1B.
Byrnes will likely be more productive vs LHP and he brings a glove bumping the the very productive lefty masher Bradley to DH. Byrnes Lf+Bradley DH is almost certainly an upgrade (especially when considering D) over Bradley LF+ Sweeney DH.

Yeah, against Generic Pitcher X

... especially considering defense.
Against Specific Pitcher Y, whom Sweeney hits but Byrnes doesn't, we revert.

It goes both ways though.

It goes both ways though. Unless something crazy happens like Kotchman getting traded, I just don't think Sweeney fits..

He doesn't fit

In the classic paradigm that has one player for each classic role.
In the Beane paradigm, the best players make the team and positions come later :- )

Well, I don't think hes a

Well, I don't think hes a better player than Byrnes or even Langerhans. Certainly not as a platoon DH. Odds are against him being better than Garko as the platoon 1B as well.
The question is if he can still give you an 800 OPS and -5 to -10 run defense at 1B. If he can, he might somewhere around a push with Kotchman.. and the clubhouse presence would put him over the top.
I don't Kotchman going anywhere though, and Sweeney is too much of an injury/performance risk at this point for the Ms to drop one of their "gauranteed contract" types.
The only realistic scenario I see is with Saunders/Byrnes/Langerhans winning the LF job outright and then adding Sweeney. I wouldn't be in favor of it in that situation however. I think the platoon LF brings more value to the team than Sweeney can as a platoon DH at this point in his career.

If Sweeney were going to OPS 800

I'd buy him lunch at Ezell's and say g'bye.
He OPS'ed nearly 900 in the second half last year, 311/372/500. For a 131% OPS+.
We're talking about 200-300 targeted AB's. If Sweeney doesn't figure to SLG .500 in those PT at-bats, we're not having this conversation. :- )

He hasn't eclipsed an 800 OPS

He hasn't eclipsed an 800 OPS since '05... Stanger things have happened in baseball, but I wouldn't want to risk dropping Byrnes or even Garko for a gamble like that..

shrugs Garko and Kotchman

*shrugs* Garko and Kotchman haven't cleared a .765 OPS since 2007, either of em. That's 4 seasons just like Sweeney's last 4. We're not talking about benching a super-stud for Sweeney. We're talking about whether Sweeney has another season in the sun as a former hitting genius (which neither Kotchman or Garko can claim to be) who finally LOOKS healthy.
Will he stay healthy? That's what Kotchman/Garko are around for. Can he contribute? That's what the long look in Spring Training is for.
Garko had a .870 OPS against lefties last year in 133 ABs (.887 in 485 career ABs). He's a good platoon player - if we want to run a platoon out there. Otherwise he's just a lefty pinch-hitter. Kotchman, OTOH, is not a significant platoon player over his career, and last year his platoon was "bad against RHP, atrocious against LHP."
The smart platoon would actually be Garko against LHP and Carp against RHP - against whom he's OPSed .848, .906 & .826 the last 3 years - and bury Kotchman. Or to go find Lahair (career .913 OPS against RHP) and give him a job. We're not gonna do that.
The Kotchman trade was the sole irritating thing for me in the offseason. I understand he has a good glove - it's his bat that floors me. We could do FAR better at the plate with two scrubs platooning there, or running Garko out there full-time, or any number of other options.
So with Casey, the idea is glove trumps bat. But Mike Sweeney's bat has been crazy-good this spring, Garko has the power that Kotchman simply doesn't. The door's getting wedged open, and we may have to find a spot for Sweeney by the time the Spring is over. I'm always open to options that can get us some production at the plate, even if it means Wak is gonna have to dance a jig with lineup construction before every game.
He can use the exercise.
~G