I like Sweeney. I'd love to see him getting 300 ABs with a line such as you suggest. But, like 2009, the issue in regard to bench depth is complicated by how FEW innings some of your "regulars" are likely to provide.
Griffey is 40 and injury prone. Bradley is borderline psychotic and is still hunting for his first 600 PA season.
The "dream" for the season is that in late May, Bedard returns, and starts pumping out those hall-of-fame quality 5-inning starts.
My personal view is that any talk of potentially carrying only 11 pitchers is simply an organization white lie intended to encourage BOTH the pitchers and hitters to work their buns off to make the team during ST.
Felix and Lee are seasoned enough to have expectation. The rest of the rotation is the NBC (No Bloody Clue) Mystery Movie, in regards to performance, stamina or both. Oh, they might break camp for a week or two with only 11 pitchers, (light April schedules do that routinely), but the honest truth is, the bullpen is just as much an unknown as the rotation. Many fans have deluded themselves into thinking the bullpen was good last year, (it wasn't).
And, it is typically April that you're left dealing with things like the EOF implosion, or reality catching up to guys like Corcoran.
The sad reality is that the decision to gamble on Griffey for one more year has put the club in the exact situation they were in last season - having one lineup slot for a defenseless player. While I hold some slim hope that Griffey's surgery can buy him another year at the plate - I think every 14 seconds he spends in the OF is going to be an exponentially growing disaster clock waiting to strike retirement. BIG difference having surgery at 40 compared to 30. Huge!
=== Controlling the Bottom Half of the Inning ===
I've always had a (not entirely justified) bias toward getting the best batter-pitcher matchups from the offensive side of the scorecard, as opposed to using four bullpen switches a game to get them.
I'd prefer to (1) counter Jon Lester with Mike Sweeney, Ryan Garko and Eric Byrnes than hope to (2) get my 2nd LOOGY into the middle of a 7th-inning game situation.
I think that the bias towards controlling the top half of the inning has some of its roots in passivity, whereas the attempt to use your lineup to gain percentages is more of an attack orientation.
But then, I grew up in the 1970's, with 9-10 man staffs, and Earl Weaver pointing out "your 5th starter takes innings away from the four men who are better than he is." You can see how I feel about the 12th pitcher generally.
Early vibe coming from the M's camp is that they would like to, if circumstances permit, go with 11 pitchers in April.
"Circumstances permitting" would be, as we understand it:
- 1 Felix Hernandez firing on all cylinders, light ST, 7+ IP April
- 2 Cliff Lee firing on all cylinders, 7+ IP April
- 3 Back-of-the-rotation looking solid, not shaky
- 4 A swing man like Vargas or Fister who can munch log-man IP
Of course, the case-against has become pitcher health...
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=== The First Four ===
Apparently being penciled in, in rather dark #2 carbon, going in:
- Eric Byrnes (Saunders or maybe Langerhans if Byrnes gets hurt or looks weak)
- Backup catcher: Johnson if healthy, Josh Bard if not
- Ryan Garko
- Jack Hannahan, org golden boy (Tui and Josh Wilson with outside shots)
Meaning that if anyone else is going to have a decent shot, it's the 11-man staff that is key.
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=== Mike Sweeney ===
In his first 3 AB's on Saturday, had a single, a homer, a double, and three RBI in a 4-4 game.
It's entirely possible that Mike Sweeney is still the Mariners' best power hitter, even at 36. In the second half last year, Sweeney hit .311/.376/.500, and I don't think it unpossible that Sweeney could hit for exactly that slash line in 250-300 AB's this year, either.
SSI's bias is towards talent, and Sweeney's an All-Star talent. He could provide a Vlad Guerrero, even Frank Thomas wild card element to the M's offense.
I don't say it's probable. But note that all of the above holds true, before you even consider that the M's would pay Sweeney to take 0 AB's (as a coach).
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=== Ryan Langerhans ===
I'm not the fan that most are, and he's redundant with Byrnes (who also backs up CF). But still.
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=== Matt Tuiasosopo ===
Is still raw enough that he can learn in AAA.
But as you know, SSI considers him to have big upside even in 2010. As a 4th infielder super-sub, he could start the engines on learning AL pitchers, and be ready to replace JLo at 3B when the time is right.
Yes, you can learn in AAA. But they can also learn playing 1-2 times a week in Safeco, actually standing in the box seeing ML pitches, and consolidating knowledge in the video room. Talking to Sweeney, er, Junior, er, Milton Bradley. Getting ML-caliber coaching.
In my day, talented rookies weren't snuffed in AAA until handed a 550-AB entitlement. They frequently made their first teams as reserves, and played their way into more PT. George Foster, Hal McRae, and many others did this for the Big Red Machine.
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=== Dr's R/X ===
The M's have a handful of tasty options on the #5 benchie platter. This year, the 5th-reserve choices look a lot more palatable than the #12-pitcher choices.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I'd prefer to (1) counter Jon Lester with Mike Sweeney, Ryan Garko and Eric Byrnes than hope to (2) get my 2nd LOOGY into the middle of a 7th-inning game situation.
Thinking back to last year I'm not sure Wakamatsu is familiar with this "pinch hitting" thing. ;)
Hannahan was a golden boy as a lefty hitter who played solid D and had more than a passing familiarity with the concept of "base on balls" -- and the guys he was backing up were Lopez, Beltre and Yuni.
Figgins in the infield makes Hannahan's skill set way less important. I think they're serious that Tui can make the roster if they deem him competent at short.
We've got a ton of platoon players this season.. I wonder if Wak is going to be more active in strictly platooning and pinch hitting guys this year?
I'm talkin' platoon lineups.
Remember, though, how seamless Wok made it look last season, carrying *both* Sweeney and Griffey. And it isn't like he had a 155-game LF'er then either -
Playing 2B/3B, and of course they've got one more dedicated 1B than in 2009, that being Garko. So, yeah.
They have made that statement about Tui, that they have to deem him acceptable at short to be the utility IF. With the Mariners' bias towards slick defense, I wonder if that's possible.
If you mean it seemed like Seattle had less players than other teams, then yes, I do remember it.
My memory is that during April there were absolute screams about how the thin bench was a disaster, (and that not DLing Sweeney was egregiously stupid -- the one that forced Burke to play 1B for a single game).
I also remember a long, steady stream of grumbling that Wok didn't ever use his bench. The Yankees, (best offensive team in baseball), used 97 pinch-hitters in 72 games. Seattle had 58 pinch-hits in 45 games.
The irony here is that it seems like having 8 guys posting 120 OPS+ figures would reduce your pinch-hitter usage. Instead, it was more than double what Seattle managed.
Griffey/Sweeney undoubtedly reduced the flexibility in going for a pinch-hitter. But, with Ronnie and Wlad as the only pinch-hit options for the first 1/3 of the season, little damage was actually done.
The real irony? Bradley had 15 pinch-hits during 2009 ... exactly the same number as Griffey. (Sweeney had 12).
Honestly, the pinch-hitting situation may be your best evidence of the danger of obsessing about defense. Historically, best offensive players start - and then you might pinch-hit late, and then put in your defensive whiz. Well, if your defensive whiz is already in the game, that whole late game lineup shuffle paradigm vanishes.