Enough noodling around MLBTradeRumors.com.  We're looking right down the barrel of 200 separate and distinct baseball games, brethren.  Life is good.

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=== Fister & Vargas ===

This winter, there's been a lot of talk about the M's fantastic depth at starting pitcher.  SSI actually sees the M's as going 3.5 deep -- maybe 3 deep if you count RRS as 0.5 along with Doogie Fister's 0.5.

To be sure, the park and defense give any gutsy pitcher a good shot at a sub-4 ERA, but in terms of pitchers who are good all by their ownselves... hm.

The noises we've heard seem to slot the rotation this way as we go into the opener:

1. King Felix
2. Cliff Lee
3. Ryan Rowland-Smith
4. Ian Snell
5. Jason Vargas vs Doug Fister
6. (Luke French, Garrett Olson)
7. (Let's hope they come to their senses and give Jarrod $5m)

Here are those same pitchers with crumpled dixie cups tossed from the SSI peanut gallery:

1. Felix Hernandez -- the Clemens, Seaver, Gibson of the '10's
2. Cliff Lee -- a tad overrated, because volume stats (like durability) are emphasized rather than rate stats,  and a bit of a burnout worry -- but a legit Opening Day SP
3. Ryan Rowland-Smith -- two different pitchers depending on whether his arm has juice in it.  The good RRS is a #3 starter
4. Ian Snell -- move on sooner, rather than later, please
5. Jason Vargas -- far too little deception, has had his 15 minutes, is booked now, is a AAAA pitcher, but is a gutsy, useful 6-7-8 SP to stop gaps
6. Doug Fister -- SSI has high hopes.  Would be my 3-4 going into camp
7. Luke French -- fuhgeddaboudit
8. Garrett Olson -- see #7 above
9. Jarrod Washburn -- now you can see why I'm befuddled about this

Sure enough, here's Doogie front and center, starting the opener.  SSI would like to construe this as the Mariners agreeing with SSI's judgment that Doogie is the pick of the non-Cy litter this spring.

The O-N-L-Y question for Doogie is gopheritis.  The discerning will count the warning-track fly balls.  To avoid gopheritis, he will need ONE of the following on his fastball:

• 90-91 mph
• Excellent movement, a la Sept. 25 vs the Jays, or
• Relentlessly pinpoint command a la Mark Beuhrle, Brad Radke
  

I was a bit surprised to see that Fangraphs had Doogie's fastball at an average velo of 88.2, higher than I expected.  If Fister's fastball gains a foot or two, averages 90 after an offseason of rest, then this competition is over before it starts.  A Doug Fister with an average FB velocity -- and/or good movement on an 87-88 fastball -- is going to be a good starting pitcher, end of story.

The one with minus FB velocity might be a good pitcher, anyway, if his command is as good as we suspect it might be.

If you want to psych up for the game, check this Sept. 25 video.  Fister shows a lively, running FB with excellent swerve, and fans 5 Jays in seven innings.

=== Lineup ===

The M's website says that they will play their starters every other day, starting with Wednesday, until the last 10 games.  The site seems to list the batting order as:

• Ichiro, rf
• Figgins, 2b
• Bradley, lf
• Griffey, dh
• Lopez, 3b
• Kotchman, 1b :- /
• Byrnes, cf
• Moore, c
• Wilson, ss

Here's another article raving about Ackley's natural-ness at second base.  Presumably it will be on the even-numbered days we'll see Ackley and Ryan Garko.

Cheers,

Dr D