Q.  Lopez hasn't played 3b in the majors to speak of, and is a very solid second baseman statistically.  Figgins has great numbers at 3b the last two years, and what little time he's had at 2b, his numbers are lousy.

Why would a sabermetric organization want to make this flip?

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A.  Because the Mariners aren't a sabermetric organization in the way that we assume they are.  Their decisionmaking is not dominated by $/RAR ratio -- check, for instance, the Morrow-League trade, the Wilson-Clement trade, and the Lee trade. 

Numbers aside:

.......

Jose Lopez is a natural third baseman.

1.  If the 30 starting second basemen ran a shuttle race, Jose would without a doubt finish #30.  As Baker reports, last year Jose finished behind Carlos Silva...

2.  Jose has the classic big-infielder's physical attributes:  poor footspeed (compared to Pokey Reese), superb hand-eye coordination, and a powerful arm.  Jose's arm would be fine at SS, never mind 3b.

......

Chone Figgins is a natural second baseman.

1.  If the 30 starting second baseman ran a shuttle race, Figgins might win the race.

2.  He's 5-8.

3.  His quickness is, in part, wasted at third base where he is, after all, playing in on the grass relative to 2b.

4.  Though his UZR numbers have been superb in 2008-09, they were questionable at 3B in 2006-07.  It is certainly possible that Figgins simply improved astronomically, but very few infielders improve that much.  More likely IMHO is that the numbers are simply less than reliable.

.....

As you know, we take defensive metrics seriously, but it is quite possible that Lopez is benefitting from some kind of park/context illusion, and the same is possible with respect to Figgins the last two years.

The (recent) numbers say:

• Figgins = outstanding 3b, dubious 2b
• Lopez = average-solid 2b, not a 3b at all

SSI suspects that the real situation is:

• Figgins = above-average 3b, above-average 2b
• Lopez = mediocre or below-average 2b, above-average 3b

So the Mariners investigate switch, obviously deploying intuition and tools scouting in contradiction of what the numbers might say if employed dogmatically.

Bravo to them.  It's one more illustration of the way that Grandmaster Zduriencik's understanding of baseball transcends that of ours on the 'net.

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Q.  Ramifications?

A.  Though Dustin Ackley is supposed to get a lot of AB's in March, I would take this as a strong sign that Ackley has no chance to play in Safeco this year.

Which would make sense.  He hasn't played 2B at all.  It's going to be plenty stressful enough just having him play it at the PCL level.  Even Dr. D, by no means risk-averse, would have Ackley playing a year at second before adding that pressure to everything else in the majors.

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