Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Colby Lewis

Posted by

2/16/10

Japanese transfer student :- ) Taro has earned the moniker 'Champ' at SSI because of the outcome of the 2008 roto leagues (the last ones DOV/SSI sponsored):

20-team mixed league: Cool Papa Bell the winner
12-team All-Star AL only league: Justynius the winner
Finishing a hair-fine 2nd place in BOTH: Taro

... giving Taro the best aggregate season. As well, Taro is one of the three mega-NPB analysts in the Seattle blog-o-sphere, so when he weighs in on NBP stuff it's worth considering.

=== Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid dept. ===

Taro is wondering if Colby Lewis got lowballed because, once again, the pendulum has swung back and GM's are underestimating Japanese baseball again?

Colby Lewis is potentially the biggest bargain this offseason. Its interesting how little attention this guy is getting even though hes been one of the most dominant NPB pitchers over the past 2 years despite pitching in that bandbox in Hiroshima.

A cutter and tightened command have led to his breakout seasons...

I wonder where the other 29 teams were on this? Lewis put up comparable and even slightly better numbers than what Matsuzaka had in his final 2 NPB seasons.

A near 10 K/BB is no joke, he led the league in K/9 in BOTH '08 and '09, he raised his GB/FB ratio to 1.48, and he did it all in Hiroshima. Thats the same launchpad where Kuroda pitched (the Coors of NPB).

$8mil over 3 years? I still can't believe it.

At first glance I thought that was for ONE season, not two and an option year.. Thats such a rediculous bargain, its silly. Lewis could be merely league-average and the Rangers would only be paying him a little over $1mil per W.

Are we back to assumming that the NPB is AAA level? Whats the deal? Why weren't more teams in on him?

=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

Thebaseballcube.com now offers the welcome improvement that it synch's NPB stats with our own minors and major stats. Here's the cube.com player card on Lewis. Let me run the stats for you, in case you don't feel like turning the cyber-page:

2008: 183 strikeouts, 27 walks, despite pitching in a tiny park
2009: Went out and did it all again, 186 strikeouts, 19 walks

Lewis' arsenal is similar to that of a Ryan Franklin type. 90-92 fastball, four distinct pitches all in the mediocre-okay range.

Interesting that Taro credits improved command, and better movement to his cut fastball. This is precisely what gave Cliff Lee his plateau jump in 2008. In other words, there's nothing unusual about a SP with a less-than-shocking toolbox simply becoming a great pitcher.

=== Dr's Prognosis ===

This winter, I wouldn't panic too much about $8m/3 for any quality pitcher. That's more than Jarrod Washburn's getting. There are a lot of interesting, and good, pitchers taking pennies on the dollar. It could just be collusion, IMHO, that kept Lewis' price down. At least Lewis got 2-3 years.

...........

Just the same, Lewis' toolbox is unexciting, and I could sympathize (and perhaps even agree with) ML scouts who go, "yeah, Lewis is better now, but he's overchallenging and not getting punished enough over there."

Nobody thinks more highly of the NPB than I do, but the NPB (and even the NL) does not guillotine "here it is, hit it" mediocrities the way that the American League does these days. You center a fastball in Fenway Park and you're down two runs, muy pronto.

I don't think of the overall player quality as being radically different in the NPB, but I do see a big difference in the severity of punishment doled out to mistake pitches. Lewis was obviously getting a lot of the plate in Japan.

There are some NPB 186/19 CTL toolboxes I'd kill to have in Safeco, such as Darvish's. There are other ones where I wouldn't buy in as much.

...........

I can see some skepticism on Lewis when you consider the unimpressive 4-pitch arsenal -- and try to visualize Lewis translating that into a less-forgiving environment. It could just be that Lewis' game won't work in the AL.

All that said, 186/19 is 186/19. I'd have loved to have had him as a 4th starter, and given a chance, will roster Lewis in an AL league. Maybe about the #35, #40 starter taken, and hope for a big score on him.

My $0.02,

Dr D

................

Great panorama of stadium pics at http://marinerds.blogspot.com/2009/06/friday-foto-mazda-zoom-zoom-stadiu...

Comments

While I agree that Lewis's

While I agree that Lewis's arsenal isn't all that overwhelming, hes got pretty decent stuff.
If Lee himself left for Japan in '08 (and busted out there instead of MLB), what kind of contract would he be getting this season?
Lewis has a crisp low 90s fastball (touches mid 90s at times), added a cutter, improved his deception, vastly improved his command, and has always had an tight effective slider (if not the break of a guy like Harang). He won't continue to run 1 BB/9s and get away with a low HR rate (since some of this is just overchallenging), but I think hes going to be pretty good.
I think he has a shot of being around as good as someone like Aaron Harang with more GB tendencies. The difference is he'll make $2.5mil a year. :-(

The Rangers are paying Lewis

The Rangers are paying Lewis like hes a #5 SP. At $2.5 mil a year they are paying him like hes not even worth 1 W per year. If hes even league-average, its a bargain.
The thing is, theres an excellent chance Lewis puts up a 3+ WAR season next year. The only real question mark is whether he can adjust to the 5-man rotation (stay healthy, fresh, and rack up innings) and if he can continue to pitch the way he did in the NPB despite the pressure (if he can mentally handle the bigs). If he can pitch close to 200 innings, he'll be worth even more.
The bottom line is you don't put up 9.5 K/9, 9K/BB, 1.5 GB/FB, 0.6 HR/9 in the Coors of NPB unless you can pitch a little. Its a ridiculous bargain for the most underrated SP FA this offseason.
Really the contract is just preposterous.... I wish it were only one year with incentives like Bedard, but Texas is giving him slave money for the next 3.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYz963o9I_8&feature=related
Heres a short highlight video.

Thanks for the link

It's hard for me to pass judgement on Lewis' abilities based upon this video without seeing the pitch sequences leading up to all the punchouts and awkward swings. Not surprisingly, I barely remember this dude ever pitching in the majors.
The video actually made me feel alot better about the Rangers signing this guy. He seems to stay pretty high up in the zone and his fastball looks straight as an arrow in this video.
I can't help but wonder as I watch this video, how his size might correlate to his success in NPB. Forgive my ignorance, but is it commonplace for NPB batters face a pitcher with low-to-mid 90's heat who's also built like an NFL tight end?
Obviously he must have some ability beyond just being ginormous in comparison to the average NPB player, it seems to me though, if 95% percent of the time you find yourself at the dish facing a guy who's dwarfed by David Eckstein, even Carlos Silva might prove a tough matchup for a little while if he's throwing hard and has something approaching average control.

yawn

IBIWISI
Last time he pitched in the big leagues, he was completely dominated.

Which may be one of the

Which may be one of the reasons why the Rangers were able to get him at that ridiculous contract... If he was a Japanese prospect that spend his entire career over there and broke out in '08, I think he may have had a little more interest.

I do agree with you thats its

I do agree with you thats its hard to tell much with limited video.
You can see a couple things though..
Regarding the fastball, the NPB ball doesn't tend to move as much on fastball and 4-seams in particular (less slippery than the MLB ball). Lewis has armside-run on his 4-seam though and also throws a cutter to lefties, so his fastball should play fine. A guy like Jered Weaver has FAR less movement on his heater than Lewis does.
Similar complaints were made regarding Uehara and Kuroda for example, but when they came over they ended up having above-average run. We have very limited MLB data on Lewis, but he had MLB average arm-side run on his fastball (-5.7 inches vs -6.0 inches average) for 37 IPs in '07.
Its true that its not typical for guys to throw that hard, but speed alone doesn't gaurantee success in the NPB. Kuroda threw even harder when he was younger but put up 5+ ERAs in his first few years before he learned how to pitch.
Colby just learned how to pitch. He added a cutter, tightened up his delivery, improved his deception (you can see how the ball looks like its coming out of his ear on the vid), and vastly improved his command.

Harang and Lewis

I like the Harang comp, Taro. Their deliveries look very similar.
I did not see the kind of precision that Harang and other command pitchers have, though. I agree with the Doc that Lewis was not punnished in NPB for his mistakes with the fastball, especially.
I expect his walks to go way up and his K's to also take a hit. But your larger point is taken - he is an extreme bargain as a FA SP if he turns out to be league average. I would rather have Lewis at that price than Blanton at his for over the next three years.

Thanks.. Its hard to tell how

Thanks.. Its hard to tell how good Lewis's command is until we actually see him pitch for a couple months. His BB/9 numbers have certainly been spectacular in the NPB the past two years, and he didn't have a mistake (homer issue) despite playing in a tiny park which suggests excellent command. Hiroki Kuroda, in the exact same situation, put up higher BB/9 and HR rates in the NPB in his walk year and he has a sub 2 BB/9 and low HR rate with the Dodgers over 2 seasons.
Harang stylistically is somewhat similar to Lewis. They are both mainly command fastball+slider types with good deception and a curveball and changeup. Both have above-average life, although Harang has less horizontal movement on his fastball than Lewis (Harang's fastball is straighter but with good life).
Harang doesn't throw quite as hard as Lewis, but has more dive to his slider. Lewis has a superior curve, while both have show-me changeups.
The biggest difference I think is the velocity edge Lewis has and the fact that Lewis throws that cutter. It makes Lewis more of a groundball pitcher as opposed to a fairly extreme flyball pitcher like Harang.
At the end of the day, I think Lewis might actually be a little better. With Lewis in a bandbox in the AL and Harang in the NL, I think they'll end up with similar all around ERA/FIP/xFIP numbers.

http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/

http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7449001
Against the Ms Lewis won solely with fastball command, against the Indians he won with "stuff" (see highlights above). He was shaky in the 1st inning again, but ended up with 10 Ks, 4 BBs in 5.1 IPs.
Its a done deal. Barring injury or fatigue due to less rest in between starts, Lewis is going to be one of the top 10 or 15 SPs in the AL.
Texas got a crazy bargain here. They'll be paying him Bloomquist money for the next 3 years.