That said -- this injury could EASILY be the harbinger of a miraculous turn-around. As Doc has noted - Bedard is a gamer -- and if he's pushing, it's because he KNOWS that doing so improves 'something'. But, coming off surgery, and being a year older - and having TWO aces in front of you -- for the first time in ages, the pressure is OFF Bedard to perform miracles.
And, because of the surgery, instead of pushing, that little nagging voice of doubt in the back of the mind may allow Bedard to NOT exceed manufacturer's specifications - and actually stay healthy.
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Dr D: Probably Sandy has seen this occur in Atlanta, a couple of SP superstars allowing a recovering pitcher to take it at his own pace.
I can definitely buy into the idea of the M's telling Erik ... it's cool, take it at your pace, you don't have to carry the team ... and the press this time buying in. After all, the press has Felix and Lee to cheer for.
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We are continually taken aback by the many comparisons between Steve Carlton and Erik Bedard:
- 2-pitch arsenal based on epic slider
- Dour personalities and game focus
- LHP, high K's, etc
- Very smooth, centrifugal, lean-back-to-CF motions
- Zduriencik's remark that Bedard is as "strong as an ox" (Carlton was famous for martial-arts strength feats)
But Carlton was, somehow, able to throw 250-300 IP per season. I wonder if it's just a hereditary difference in connective tissue...
Carlton wasn't any better a pitcher than Bedard, and wasn't any different in style once on the mound. But Erikkkk oughta give Lefty a call about the durability part of it.
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Sandy: Go and look at Nolan Ryan's career. He *NEVER* "learned" control. But, he got better as he aged - I believe - because he simply lost the ABILITY to be as wild as he was for the first 15 years of his career. He lost just enough "throwing" ability -- that ultimately, he gained more "pitching" ability.
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Dr D: And Roger Clemens, and indeed Felix, and Bartolo Colon, and Curt Schilling, and 100 other guys. This is even the typical pattern for great pitchers, to drift more and more towards precision, location, and intelligence.
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Sandy: Bedard is a different case. He's already got mad control skills. But, having watched Maddux out-pitch Smoltz (and every other mid-90s hurler the Braves found for 20 years), I can say with confidence that VELOCITY is without a doubt the single most overrated pitching stat in baseball.
If Bedard loses a little speed - but in doing so adds even the tiniest smidge of control to his arsenal ... well, I for one think a 1.90 ERA season isn't implausible -- given the park and defense he's got going for him. No -- that isn't a projection -- that's the miracle upside -- but one that fewer than a dozen pitchers in the game today possess.
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Dr D: Tom Glavine with a Steve Carlton slider? :- )
That's an interesting final point -- that given Bedards +2.00 run slider, it could easily be that a shift to 90-LOCATED as opposed to 94-CHALLENGE might even be a step forward for him.
Randy Johnson, who is a good comparison for Erik Bedard in terms of K, BB, CTL and the 2-pitch power LHP arsenal, did exactly this in Arizona. He dialed back the FB a bit, added precision and deception, and if anything was even more of a load than in his Mariner days.
People don't realize what a good match Bedard is for Johnson, albeit even at Bedard's best he's 80-90% of the Big Unit. But that's still saying a lot.
