Here is our earlier kibitz of John Sickels' top 20. Here are SSI's quick takes on Baseball America's list:
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...my top ten list is a lot closer to yours than to BA's...
Dustin Ackley
Carlos Triunfel
Matt Tuiasosopo
Adam Moore
Michael Pineda
Josh Fields
Alex Liddi
Nick Hill
Greg Halman
Rich Poythress
Michael Saunders is about 49th on my list. I hate him as a prospect. He just looks ugly out there. Maybe he is better than he looks...but seriously...I don't understand the fascination with him.
when you find yourself shooting around the same corners as Dr. D, it's time to get either a Kevlar jumpsuit or a flamethrower, bro :- )
I swear, each list I see about Seattle specs, I wonder if there is confusion out there about Triunfel and Tui. I mean, how long can a guy produce, and be written off, while another fails to produce and continues to be lauded?
I like the list above -- my only personal addition would be Kasarek -- but I understand he doesn't have a prospect pedigree, so I think I'll see him in the majors before I see him on a prospect list.
Query: Tui and Saunders are both athletic-jock-stud-golden-boy types, both from northern climes, both multi-sport guys late to move to baseball-only mode, both signed at 18 (Tui in 04, Saunders in 05), both with streaky minor-league histories, both of which probably due in part to being pushed up based on tools/potential before being fully baseball-ready, both given MLB looks at 22 in which the tools/potential didn't show up quite as hoped.
Yet, here we have folks liking one, but not the other, and vice versa. Nobody's got a top 10 with both of them?
I have always been a Saunders guy, but it's not like it's an either/or proposition.
Both: slow fuse due to northern-climate, multi-sport background -- these guys weren't taking BP all fall and winter as teenagers, they were playing football and hockey and hoops. There are plenty of sun belt guys who didn't "get it" until 25/26/27, but we want these guys to be stars in the majors at 23 without playing college ball and after being rushed through the minors? Patience.
Saunders: Mike Cameron minus the automatic gold glove, but left-handed -- doubles, Ks, walks, defense
Tui: Jose Cruz Jr. in the infield -- all the pedigree and tools, but never quite the star he looks like he should be -- multiple 120 OPS+ years to tantalize, but no bust out (and I honestly don't know why I don't think he'll bust out, but that's my sense)
All of which puts them both in the top 10 prospects at this point, of course, because that would still make them both steady regulars and MLB contributors in the long run.
There *are* similarities between Saunders and Tui, which draws the inconsistency into sharper relief.
Interesting that Sickels himself admitted to a bias against Saunders as well, though it's hard to leave him out of an org top 10 when he's the #4 in the PCL. These late bloomers can cause some real controversy...
Saunders is up there, at the moment, arm swinging at the ball...and he has far less projectable power than Tui...whose opposite field approach and large frame make him a better bet to one day potentially crack 30 bombs without striking out 150 times. Saunders has an ugly, exploitable swing, and it doesn't come with the power potential you need to be a prospect when that kind of swing.
Saunders is Mike Cameron minus 15 HR and 20 walks and 10 SB.
Tui could turn into Bret Boone.
Bret Boone 150 OPS+ season? Really? From Tui? Is he gonna get on the juice too?
Tui's best year:
Age 22, first try at AAA: .281/.364/.453/.817, .45 batting eye, strikeout every 4.2 ABs
His second best year:
Age 23, 2nd try at AAA: .261/.368/.473/.841, .43 batting eye, strikeout every 2.7 ABs.
Tui still can't come close to cracking .300 after 2000+ ABs in the minors, only hit for power after swinging three times at every pitch and repeating a league, and Ackley and Triunfel are positioned to freeze him out of 2B which turns him into a RH 3B in a park designed to mock him. So he's a low-average, moderate-power and OBP corner IF with a K problem in a park that crushes moderate RH power? That's the slam-dunk #2 in the system in your opinion?
I love how Doc doesn't think much of Halman or Morban or any of our other free-swingers, but when Golden Boy is regressing horribly in his K:AB ratio it's just glossed over. Bump in the road that isn't even MENTIONED. For his minor league career of over 2000 ABs, his ratio's UNDER 4, and very close to uber-free-swinger Wlad Balentien - he of the sloppy approach. But Wlad clubbed homeruns as a teenager even when he was MORE raw than Tui ever was. Tui just figured out how to do it last year while increasing his K rate to drastically absurd proportions.
If - after 2000 minor league ABs - any prospect not named Tui took his K rate from around 4 (bad) to under 3 (one of the worst in the minors) would you downgrade him? Or would you insist that he be the #2 prospect in the system (even though his power as a corner bat STILL is in question) and any other assessment of him is inconceivable and worth mockery?
Saunders and Tui both strike out too much, but Saunders is making steps in a positive direction while his power increases, not a negative one. Their batting eyes are pretty much identical for their careers but again, Saunders is trending UP with 500 less ABs than Tui, not down.
If Saunders needs to play CF in order to make any sort of impact, then Tui has to play 2nd. If Tui can play 2nd, then he's a better prospect.
But I still think he's Mike Morse.
How do you look at a guy with 6 seasons in the minors who has decided to strike out at unheard of rates in order to find power without concluding "He still needs a lot of work to reach his potential?"
And if 2000 ABs hasn't made a dent in reaching his potential, how much longer is he likely to get? He's out of options as of this year, isn't he? He's got one more trip to the minors left IIRC before he has to clear waivers in '11, but can you put a guy like Tui in the lineup now?
We'll find out, I guess. As you say, Wak seems to like him fine. Lots of managers have liked Bloomie too - that doesn't make him a #2 org prospect. I really hope you're right about Tui - we could use a killer to pair with what we hope Ackley will become for the next 6 years.
But your insistence that a lot of smart people are completely inept because they don't see what you see in him is disingenuous - you're the one who carries on the whole "lightbulbs" conversation in the first place. When you disagree with very smart people, I thought calling them silly instead of figuring out what they might see that you don't is the wrong way to go about things.
Did I miss something?
~G
Calm down G. Yes Tui is still fanning a ton. He has a long ways to go still.
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The 150 OPS+ is tongue-in-cheek but as I've explained many times, it is Tui's swing type x his physical attributes that I see. Not his performance to date. At age 21, Mike Piazza fanned 68 times and walked 11 in class-A ball in half a year.
Racking up a bunch of stats on Matt Tuiasosopo, comparing him to others on paper, is going to miss the point. Some players, you have to watch them play. People wrote up Adam Jones' stats early on and missed the point on him, too.
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I back Halman a lot more than most people do, but Roger Jongewaard never comp'ed Halman to Ken Griffey Jr. and Halman doesn't have the ability to let the ball travel three feet deep into the strike zone.
I visualize Tui three stages on. So does Wakamatsu.
It's precisely because SSI conveys so much respect for those with different viewpoints, that you ought to be able to tell that the once-in-a-blue-moon 'y'all are crazy' shtick is not malicious.
As you know, I respect tools scouts, but those who dismissed Lincecum and Ichiro were out to lunch on those two players, pure and simple. It doesn't mean they're incompetent. But it was definitely an embarrassment for them to see Lincecum and Ichiro as anything other than huge-impact players.
I'm calling the same thing on Tui. :shrug: we'll see.
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Not sure what's in your bonnet this morning G, all the 'disingenuous' stuff you're throwing around here, but if you don't care for Tuiasosopo as much as I do, fine. I respect that.
I think I pointed this out before, but the Official Site of the Seattle Mariners is listing Tui as a 2b and shortstop, and not at 3b: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=sea
Don't know where it comes from or how much it means, but somebody on the inside said it was OK to put it out there that way.
Maybe because having just Hannahan at backup SS looked a little funky...
We're not early on with Adam Jones. People griped about his first full season in the Midwest League without understanding what the Midwest League does to hitters. By the time he was Tui's age...well wait, Adam Jones was a gold-glove winner and plus contributor up the middle in the bigs at Tui's age.
We're 6 years down the line with Tui, and his swing is no more indicative of success than Dobbs' was, or Reed's, or Morse's. Is Tui a bigger guy than they are? Sure (well not Morse, but the other guys). Does big = big-league power? Ask Gabe Kapler. But at least Gabe tore up the minors in some way before going on to hit like Randy Winn in the Majors.
Tui hitting like Randy Winn at 2B is acceptable. At 3rd it's no better than what Casey Kotchman is doing with his pretty swing at 1B.
I've seen Tui play, as you have. I'm still not impressed enough to slot him where you do, so we must be looking at different things. Could he lock it in at 26 and have a few interesting years? Sure. Garrett Atkins comes to mind.
But Garrett is busy falling like a stone too.
Three stages on for Tui = him playing for a different team. If we weren't gonna wait it out with Wlad, why would we wait it out with Tui? If we can't find a 3B option I could see it...but Chone is here for 4 years, and Tui's not playing SS. That leaves 2B, where the #2 pick in the draft and our #1 international signing of the last few years are slotted to play.
How are we getting to 3 stages on with Tui here? He gonna replace Hannahan as the super-sub type?
I guess I can't see how we get Tui to perform for us before we run out of options, patience and space for him. If he does break through I would think it would be an Ibanez sort for another team. Unless he does it this year or the other 2B options either suck or can't play 2nd.
How do you see it panning out for Tui? You said you could get him some ABs off the bench this year. Where does he play next year, and will he have jumped enough stages in your opinion to warrant a significant chunk of playing time?
We're a season and a half, two seasons from the expected debuts of Ackley and Triunfel if they are who we think they are. It could be sooner, but it's not likely to be later. Is Tui the backup plan for if they fail? If he's #2 in the system, then no he's not. He deserves a spot on the roster and a place to play every day, just like Adam Jones got in Baltimore.
And I guess I just don't see him getting that - or at least that it's a long-shot. Why do you think he'll get the ABs that Wlad and Clement couldn't get?
~G
Lincecum was the best pitcher in college who was downgraded because of bias against size and a funky motion.
Ichiro was the best player in Japan who was downgraded because of bias against size and a funky swing.
Tui hasn't been the best player on any team he's been on in the minors, let alone a league or the minors as a whole, and it's not his body or his swing that anyone has a problem with.
I respect you calling your shot and going out on a limb for it, but while I was with you on the other guys, I have a bias against Tui based on performance and demonstrated ability (or inability) to harness his skill-set. There are late bloomers and there are really LATE bloomers. Yes, Tui is still young enough age-wise to have growth left to get and time to get it, but I don't think it'll be with us - which makes him a prospect I trade to the guy I find that believes what you believe.
The only problem is, no one else seems to believe that (tho Matt is in your camp on this I think).
I'd love to be wrong, Doc, and we get to really enjoy a hulking-but-agile IF bat who can crush the ball as a RH in Safeco. We're just so far from that in his development, IMO, that I can't see how to get to the end from here with him still in an Ms uniform.
Hope those goggles on your forehead help you see it more clearly. ;)
~G
If they keep the current roster, and when/if Tui is in the bigs, then I think they envision Lopez at 1b a fair amount, with Tui at 2b, giving them a more RH look. I think they will be selective about playing Kotchman vs. LHP.
MB will play LF only part of the time. Some that time can go to Figgins in LF, Tui at 3b.
Or when MB and Jr. both have a day off, Tui would be RH DH.
I certainly see enough possibilities to give him a chance to see what he can do.
But G is right that "third-stage" 26-year-old Tui, if he comes, will not come until after the roster squeeze.
Fact is, people don't start smoking pot as 25-year-old professionals. They start in high school, or earlier.
I don't know anything -- I'm not from there -- but I can't imagine that Lincecum did not have a whispering "reputation" below the radar that was sufficient to drag down his draft status just a little.
Given that the Ms are located in his home area makes it that much more likely that they were privy to off-the-record info that led them to take Morrow over Lincecum. I think "injury risk" may have been a euphemism.
Doesn't make it the right move, but with millions at stake, people err on the side of caution.
Of course, I could be completely off base. But it seems to fit with the on-the-record facts.
Let me volley it in a post, so can chalk up the URL :- ) and then you can return again.
Tui is 23. As you know, there are a whale of a lot of ML stars who weren't hitting AL pitching yet in their early 20's.
Last July and August, Tui showed the flashes of what we're looking for, the .600 SLG etc. The timeline isn't a problem at age 23 for a Conine type.
As for the traffic jam looming, yeah. ... cont. ...
whoever hits first, he's in there, regardless of whoever is behind him. If Tui or Carp or anybody else were to SLG .480 in Safeco, let's just say, then they are certified MLB(TM) and it's everybody else's worry how they fit in.
Tui is obviously being fast-tracked despite being as raw as he is. He's the kid who has come up and played the IF at Safeco. He's first in line, and all he has to do is produce, in order to make the competition a moot point.
Agreed.
And in support of your point, there was a kid who played for Florida's minor leagues before he was traded, about whom the inestimable John Sickels said this in 2006, 6 years after his drafting:
Top pick in the draft, though at least partially because of signability. Considered to be a smooth and polished hitter with an excellent glove, but there were questions about how much power he would develop. Although he was said to have good makeup on draft day, he quickly gained a reputation within the Marlins system as something of a prima donna. Doubts about his power proved true, and he seems destined to be a journeyman.
That pick?
1) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Florida Marlins (high school, Chula Vista, CA)
His 2005 minor league season was shortened by a woeful promotion to the bigs but FINALLY showed that power people wanted from him. Obviously Sickels discounted it when looking at the body of evidence in his other 2400 minor league ABs. His minor league line? .296/.365/.448/.813. Not exactly a world-beater, especially at a corner position.
He's been better in the bigs than he was in the minors. If Tui ever comes through on his athleticism, that's the promise he shows too.
I think it has to be soon, that's all. That holds true for Carp as well, what with Raben and Poythress having more power potential. Saunders doesn't have anyone nipping at his heels in the OF yet, but that's because Halman, Peguero, Chavez etc are all K machines. Saunders' competition (F-Gut) just got a 4 year extension, so he REALLY needs to come through to deserve a LF spot. He could lose his to a Raben as well.
I'd rather squeeze my prospects than have a dearth of them, though. I'm glad we aren't clearing out the minors to make sure no one pushes Yuni, for instance. I don't miss the days of Bavasi, that's for sure. Just keep the talent coming, Jack - we'll figure out what to do with it once it gets here.
~G