Q. But an innings eater can help you, right?
A. Sure.
Liriano does fine with his junkball arsenal, assuming he can get away with merely "showing" the fastball.
Think George Sherrill, throwing 87 mph, with less of a slider, as a starting pitcher. He'll get you 7 K's, but baby will it be tough in between the K's.
Liriano, however, also has a third pitch -- his changeup is very effective. At times he looks like he's throwing an Eddie Guardado palm ball. Great arm action and even better, unpredictable, tumbling action out of it.
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Q. How about the chance to bounce back from his TJ surgery.
A. This is the wild card. He had the elbow ligament replaced in what, 2007, and absolutely, his terrible 2008-09 matches up perfectly with a "scared to cut loose" intepretation.
Liriano has the shaky command of a recent post-TJ guy, refuses to snap off the slider, is obviously not healthy.
This winter, the Twins are selling Liriano as having broken through the wall, throwing the stuffing out of the ball, 92-94 mph with the old 2006 slider.
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Q. Dr's Prognosis?
A. To me, Liriano isn't a guy you want, based on his 2008-09 performance. If I thought he was going to throw like that, the next three years?!, my own roster is the last place I'd want him.
Look, kids, do you want to build this dynamic young team around Aaron Sele at the #3 slot? Sele ran some 100 ERA+'s too. And most years, it was like going to the dentist watching him trying to survive five innings.
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But the question of his health bouncing back is the intriguing thing. You go get Liriano if you think that 2010 is going to be a lot healthier than 2009.
I don't doubt that it would be. Here's where the scouts' D.R. reports make or break your decision. If you're actually seeing him crack off the huge slider again, at will, then of course. If not, then no.
I don't have that info, do you? Zduriencik does.
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Q. Liriano for Jose Lopez?
A. This is the kind of deal you make IF the winter reports are that Liriano is all the way back.
Remember, these two things are different: (1) the winter scouts say that Liriano is all the way back. (2) Liriano's ERA is 2.16 at the All-Star Break. The reports on Ben Sheets are also that he's throwing great. Does that mean you pay for the 2006 Liriano and 2006 Sheets?
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In Minnesota, Jose's 5-year run of Tejada stats would begin. On Opening Day. At his salary, the Twins can't even ask that much (let alone get that much) unless they are talking to a team that buys in to the winter rumors.
I'd be fascinated to see Zduriencik give up Lopez for Liriano, because that would represent the M's as holding a 2006-Liriano file folder upstairs.
Cheers,
Dr D
Even if Liriano IS all the way back...even if you got one great year out of him...it's a horrible trade. Because he's never going to be healthy enough for long enough for you to build your team around him in your rotation. Lopez...is money in the bank production at a skill position. Please...just say no.
Supposing his ERA is 2.16 at the All-Star break, and he's the game's best pitcher again. What then? You have to deal him in July or watch him walk anyway?
Of course, Liriano's agent Genske is a little lightweight compared to the Boras and Nero types, and I remember something about the Twins keeping Liriano down and his missing out on a year of service time somewhere. Are we sure that Liriano's a FA after this year?
Liriano's a first year arb player, per this site.
http://www.twinkietown.com/2010/1/19/1259576/twins-agree-to-terms-with-all
Which gives him this year and 2 more before he's a FA.
~G
Just a small quibble with your comment in the prior post, Doc. You stated you thought Z was interested in trading Lopez because his template (lesser D; lesser OBP; bigger SLG) did not fit with Z's "style" preference.
My understanding of the buzz is that it is Wak who wants a change at 2b, because Lopez does not fit into Wak's off-field template: work habits, commitment, etc.
I don't know who's right, but that's just what I've picked up. Obviously, it is clear that all things being equal Z will take the player with good glove and OBP skills (especially in filling out the roster with the scrubs), but I don't think he would flush a player simply because he doesn't fit into that box.
Hate Santana's mechanics too? Pretty good comp for Liriano in that regard. Would I trade Lopez for him? No. Would I write him off as an injury-riddled flame out? No. Nearly all of these guys sustain a major injury at some point. He is a max-effort delivery guy who cross-fires a touch and doesn't get his hand out of the break quick enough. Those are fixable flaws and his performance a few seasons back earns him a long look if I own him. I think he fits in the back-end of a rotation for a season to see if it comes back. Not worried about the fb, its the slider that I would look at. I would hope that the observation of a violent motion wouldn't turn folks off out of hand, as we just signed a certain young pitcher with that trait to a pretty hefty contract.
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitche...
Scroll down to the bottom of this diagnostics page. Not that when Santana is set to release the ball, his pitching arm side elbow is shoulder height and his arm is cocked upright as is proper. Compare that to the image of Liriano at the release point at the top of this article. His elbow is above his friggin' ear and his arm is pointing palm-side down to the dirt in the classic inverted W. Santana has average mechanics...Liriano's mechanics make women and children cry.
Funny Matt, the article you quoted gave the impression that they were very similar styles, going so far as to predict injury for Santana. So no, they are not, 'nothing alike'. Being same sided, on the same team, and observation of success might have led Liriano to mimic him perhaps? There are a ton of ways to skin a cat so quoting "proper" technique will not be universal. Santana, up until now, was seen as an absolute horse with long-range projection. Some minor tweeks could be made with Liriano (and they are fairly minor) to get a bit more repeatable. That's why I suggested he get his hands out of the break faster, its to get set in the backswing earlier and take some of the lunge out of the motion.
Its I guess somewhat of a misconception that pitchers strive in any way for perfect mechanics. They may as youths, but outside of some generational arms, most meet some resistance whether amateur or pros where they have to do something to get an edge. That could take form in any number of ways, pitch selection, deception, side-arming, whatever. If Liriano doesn't show some more life this year, I get worried, and perhaps a different org. could tweak his hand action some (if I can see it, you can bet that they can). I see no reason to plug him into a predetermined mold and decide that he has injury risks that prevent him from any success. It just does't work that way with enough consistency to declare as law.
...does not claim that Liriano and Santana are similar...it says they both have mechanical problems and a similar injury risk...but Liriano is clearly and evidently throwing differently than Santana...just look at the danged photos I provided...Liriano has the inverted W...Santana does not.
Ok Matt, I can see that I won't be able to compete with the perspectively challenged alphabet that you use to determine injury risk. I have looked at some video of Liriano, and made my own observations of some faults with his motion. You can comment on those if you like, (and maybe even understand that my suggestion alleviates your concern!) or you can insist on using what is becoming a bit of a tired 'flaw' found with 'every' pitcher that gets hurt. Either way, I can tell you from experience that there is nothing he does that is close to un-fixable and given his age and success, he warrants a long look.
And yes, you need to take another look at the link that you gave me. The part where the authors says that "the troubling thing is how similar Santana's motion is to Liriano's" right under the first video kind of tips me off that he sees a certain 'sameness'. In fact, apart from some minor differences, there probably aren't 2 better comps for similar styles in the big leagues.
Liriano reported velocity in the winter makes this a deal I just don't think the Twins make. With the 2B options available via FA, why would trade someone with that kind of SP upside for Lopez?
It makes little sense.
Even Liriano's last two season are closer to league-average than on the surface. I wouldn't make that trade which means it'll probably cost Lopez+.
Liriano has improved his mechanics signficantly since TJ. He still not a 'safe' pitcher by any means, but hes no longer the train wreck he was pre-TJ.
By noting his weird short-arm stroke I'm not saying he can't pitch.
As you note, a lot of guys short-arm the ball and if you can get away with it velo-wise, more power to you. In my view, I don't know of anything from a physics standpoint that predicts tissue stress from that kind of stroke, other than that he has to muscle the ball more (without the Jered Weaver-like leveraging).
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In Liriano's case, you're talking a major injury already, and being slow to come back from TJ into the bargain. But you don't worry too much about those things?
It's good to hear an expert who is confident in Liriano's bounceback. :daps:
Never occurred that it might be Wok's thing, but that makes sense.
Very important point. And I'm guessing you're right about it being more a work-habits thing with Wok. That would make more sense than Zduriencik being Lope-averse.
There are options, but those who'll go .300-30-110 in the Dome for $2m?
Which option did you have in mind? Not volleying, just clarifying.
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But yeah. If the TWINS bought into Liriano's bounceback, why would they be trading him?
That's a lot of time. If he jelled during 2010, you'd have your Big Three for quite awhile.
Hudson and Felipe Lopez are equal/better than Lopez in overall value, though Lopez's upside out of Safeco is pretty intriguing.
When you consider the FA market and consider that Liriano has more upside with an extra year of control...I just don't see hoe Lopez alone gets it done.
The Twins start play in an out door park this year...Target Field will be a pitcher's park...the weather in Minneapolis especially in the spring and fall all but guarantees this.
I've got to come down on CA's side on this one.
Santana and Liriano were siamese twins in the Minny org and for me, the similarities are compelling... awesome change-speed LH deception, similar backstrokes and throughstrokes etc.. And in fact Santana has had some elbow issues, though I'm not claiming the short stroke is a belweather of doom.
Bit of a mystery to me CA why you get into it with Matty. :- ) Your on-field background and Matt's saber background are complementary, but really so different that you don't have a lot of need to justify your perspective around here.
If you just toss the BP and step around the rejoinders, the audience isn't going to get any less out of your insights. Same goes for Matt who brings his own specialized light bulbs to the table.
Odd thing about the internet: 90% of the audience doesn't especially care whether you reply or not to a 'refutation.' :- )
How could Hudson provide similar WAR - $ if Hudson's making a lot more than Lopez? Or by 'overall value' you mean performance not considering salary?
Thanks for the catch.
The remark about the weather makes sense, though Boston is a hitter's park even in April and October. Are you taking the dimensions into account? If so, yeah.
Didn't even know they had a new park.
...staring at the photos of Liriano throwing from LAST YEAR (yes Taro...that's post-TJ) and the photos or Santana throwing last year...both at the point of release...and while their lower bodies are similarly positioned and they have a similar short-arm delivery and a lot of torque on their arms...they are just NOT in the same release position...Liriano's is a travesty...Santana's is a little too high on the pitching arm side but his arm is cocked upright. Look at the images...line them up side by side...and PROVE to me that they have a similar release. You're not going to be able to do so...because they don't.
I wouldn't say that I was confident that he will come all the way back. Just that he has earned a long look and its a bit early to write him off. I've seen worse 'classical' mechanics in the big leagues and found it to be an over-reaction to state that a guy with his upside to be done at his age. Carpenter, Meche (somewhat) the list is long with guys coming back after big-time arm problems. And do really know something is a deathly flaw without having some kind of a fix to suggest? Maybe this guy just burns hot for a few seasons then goes away. Hard to tell. LH Low to mid 90's with a nasty slider is extremely valuable to the M's and I would take a risk on it in our position.
Just that he was poor in 2009, that you NEED him to bounce back, and that bounceback isn't something I would assume.
Analysis elsewhere around the net has been, if he stays right where he was in 2009, you've got a nice pitcher. Negatory.
Agreed on that. His moonlighting as a batting practice pitcher last year can't be ignored with any degree of legitimacy. His performance has to improve dramatically for him to be even an average pitcher. My only point was that he has the tools to succeed when he's right and we could afford to gamble on a guy like that with our top 2 being so effective. I wouldn't pay heavy for him, nor would I listen to the Twins tell me he's back, cause if that's all I was acting on, why would they trade him?
As to my interaction above: I have to admit to dropping an 'easter egg' into the discussion regarding hand position to see where we were at. It's been my experience that pitching coaches may know some of the advanced terminology but certainly don't use it while teaching. The little trick that I mentioned was passed on to me while watching a kid throw years ago and it was noticed that his throwing arm was dragging through the zone. In short, it can be (one of several) fixes to an "inverted W". Probably not necessary.
Pitching coaches change where a pitcher holds his mitt while taking the signs ;- )
J/K, but as y'know, other than maybe arm angle or fingers on top, it's not the easiest thing to change the way a pitcher actually brings the ball forward... still, if Adair wanted to take a crack at changing Liriano's throughstroke, more power to him...
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Don't mean to minimize Liriano's chances to get the juice back in his wing. After all, it's the right time for TJ recovery in 2010 and the reports are good.
Believe it when we see it, is all...
Ya, I'd still categorize him as above-average risk (but I think you can milk 3-4 good years out of this version). You should have seen him pre-TJ. The guy didn't have a prayer. It doesn't suprise me at all that he got injured so quickly.
Basically you could get Hudson+Liriano for about a net of $4mil more than just keeping Lopez (if Lopez for Liriano staightup was really doable).
The Twins could do exactly the same if they didn't trade Liriano, which makes me believe that this trade is pretty unrealisitic. It'll be Lopez+ for Liriano IMO, and depending on the + thats still a move I'm in favor of.
What of this rumor that we are trading lopez for another weak armed veteran pitcher from the Twin Cities? Who started this rumor anyway?
Take a gander at this statistic:
28/30
Los Sailores' runs scored ranking in 2009. The Mariners were a scant four runs behind the Padres and the Pirates for the title of baseball's worst hitting team.
What can we do to fix this situation?
Why don't we trade away the only guy on the team who is guaranteed to hit 25 home runs next year?
Perhaps we are taking this small ball stuff too far. A small ball team is just something you build when you don't have any hitters. Everyone really wants both offense and defense.
Why aren't we hearing any rumors that involve Joe Mauer?
Still Puzzling,
Mojician
And Boston is a significantly warmer park than Target Field will be in April. They do get their share of back door cold fronts from the maritimes in Boston, but on the whole, the average weather conditions in Boston are a good step warmer than in Minneapolis in the spring and fall...there's a reason Boston is in climate zone 6 and Minneapolis is in climate zone 3 (drastically shorter growing season, more frost-bitten nights, more extremes of weather in both directions, more wind, less rain). Minneapolis is the classic "continental" climate and the Twins are going to suffer some hellish baseball conditions as a result.
I also note that their hitters are all groundball guys, which will KILL them in the switch to natural grass and their pitchers are all flyball pitchers, which will hurt them rather badly in the summer time when the wind is blowing straight out to center most of the time. In other words...they're built totally wrong for their park.
A Lopez-for-Liriano trade makes sense in that both players are attractive mostly for their cheap club-controlled status and their yet unrealized potential. It seems to me that this is one of those kinds of trades that Z spoke about in his interview where both sides benefit from the swap. It is tough to come up with a more underrated 2B than Lopez in Safeco.
If both players were to play half their games over the nex two seasons in Safeco, I would wager that Liriano>Lopez.
Where is the best place on the web to find wind roses?
Thanks
The Twins ended up just signing Hudson themselves, which was predictable. Liriano's velocity spike and contract situation made this a trade I felt was highly unrealistic from the start, but a lot of people were still against it pre-season regardless.
Liriano has been arguably the best non-Cliff Lee pitcher in baseball this season.