.
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Q. There must be some silver lining here.
A. Kotchman was 26 last year. Nick Johnson had a lifetime OPS+ not much over 100, when he sort of jelled, posted a soft 130+ OPS in small AB's at ages 26 and 27.
It's not unpossible that Kotchman could "figure out" MLB pitching and decide to get under a few balls, maybe lower his grounder rate to 9000:1 or something.
I imagine this would be Capt Jack's reasoning -- that Kotchman is about to jell, as it were, the way that Johnson kind of did at 26. If that isn't the reasoning, then I have no idea what the reasoning would be. They'd have to explain it to you.
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Q. What are the chances that Kotchman will leap a plateau?
A. Objectively? 10, 20%. Subjectively? Zero.
I've been following, and arguing about, Casey Kotchman for five or six years. I used to argue him with Inside Pitch allllll the time, back when Kotchman was an overrated PCL'er that all the Angels fans loved.
Kotchman is technically beautiful. He's a pleasure to watch on the field. He's a super-professional. He's got a swing that is as fun to watch as John Olerud's.
And because of those things, nobody has ever noticed that he's an entitled, hyped failure.
He cheats to get out in front of fastballs, looks awful on any kind of ML offspeed pitch, and when he does get a FB he two-bounces it to second.
Ecccchhhhhh. Instantly my least-fave Mariner player of this decade.
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Q. Dr's Diagnosis?
A. The M's just brought in an very weak MLB(TM) Honda Civic, a "credentialed" 100 OPS hitter with a good glove, to patch a hole at 1B.
They could have done a lot of things rather than ossify 1B with an MLB(TM) mediocrity.
They coulda re-signed Branyan. They coulda played Carp -- or Tui, via 2B/Lopez/1B. You coulda been investing time in Jeff Clement, and his light-tower LH bat in Safeco, at first base. They coulda gone after LaRoche, or a bunch of guys.
There was no need to cover-your-backside with such desperation. Growf.
What's that scene in Grinch? Adam A. Aardvark ... I LOATHE you. Andrew Anderson ... I DETEST you entirely. :- ) The Kotchman type of move is the one that drives me batty. The MLB(TM) CYB Special.
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Q. Lopez to 1B, maybe?
A. NOW we know why they were talking Lopez to 1B. They never wanted Branyan's health questions back, and they don't like what they see in Mike Carp.
You musta been some kinda desperate at 1B, dude.
Okay. When are Raben or Poythress ready? Can Saunders play 1B? Maybe Ackley can do an Erstad thing there? I can't wait until this 1B carousels around to whoever's next.
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Q. C'mon, baseball is for fun. Throw us a bone, at least.
A. Consider for a moment, the laser-focus on 2010 that this move speaks to. (Granted, of course, that Casey Kotchman's age-27 year will give you a bit more than Mike Carp's rookie year.)
This goes way past "focused on this year" to... not panicked, not shrill, but whatever word is past "obsessed."
I'm all for GM's who realize the importance of THIS year. From 2003-2008, cyber-Seattle constantly strategized to win the pennant in year +5. Zduriencik's focus on these next 162 games is breathtaking.
I loathe Casey Kotchman the ballplayer, but I can't say I'm unhappy to have a GM who realizes that this year's pennant is worth as much as the one in 2014.
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Q. Under what circumstances do you like this acquisition?
A. Under the circumstance that Kotchman is here to keep Adrian Gonzalez' locker warm.
Bah humbug,
Dr D
Doc, wow...but unfortunately so true.
The ONLY way this makes any sense if some how the Mariners GIVE $2+ Million less to the Sawks than the Mariners receive from the Brewers...thus giving the Mariners MORE money to spend this year. I doubt that is true, but one can hope.
... they're running out of places to spend it... 1B now occupied, and no LF bats to spend it on...
Undoubtedly Zduriencik would explain it in terms of Kotchman's age-27 season producing more than Carp's rookie year.
That is the kind of decision, though, that in any other regime, would take a merciless beating ... the honeymoon is getting stretched rather far on many of these moves...
..............
The upside occurs if Kotchman is seen as a Band-Aid for the next 1B in: Adrian Gonzalez, in May. Or similar. In THAT scenario the pieces sort of fall in.
That the biggest contrast between Carp and Kotch is notably defense. But even then, I don't get it. This move is dislike.
My other question is, is there really a point in having a good defensive 1B in the UZR/defensive cheezwiz stats? The biggest thing at 1B really isn't the range or the defense, but being the receiver on plays at first. The standard defensive stat isn't going to analyze this, as far as I know.
With that in mind, depreciating catching 1B defense is easy, since you can get players that don't suck at throwing to first base. Yes, it's good to have a good/great 1B receiver, but if the rest of your infield is really good, it's not death on a stick to have an average 1B receiver. The great, Olerud-class 1B definitely can stack your cards, but really, if your infield doesn't suck (as the M's have done to the extreme with the entire left side), why try to overleverage defense to this extent?
Let me preface this by saying, I truly loooooove Captain Jack.
Everyone else, (including the Doc), is confused by this move, because to a man, everyone discussing this is talking "as if" this is a move separate from all other moves. The lone exception being Doc's half-hearted hope/dream that this is precursor to an A-Gone deal in mid-season. (What I don't get at all is why anyone would think, if your plan is to go after A-Gone, why wouldn't you play Carp as the place-keeper, anyway?)
The problem here is everyone is focused on the 1B side of the equation. You want a simple explanation of the whole thing? There is only ONE question being asked with each move. How can I improve the team? The question is not, (and never has been), "How can I win this year?" or "How do I land a big bat?" or "How can I not look like an idiot?" The question that Jack asks with each move is -- "How can I improve the team?" It really is THAT simple.
Bill Hall was a right-handed, crash and burn, whose ONLY value at all was his multi-position defensive capacity. His brief stint of decency ended in 2006, and since then he's been running an eye ratio of 1:5 (and getting worse). The day the Ms signed Figgins, Bill Hall's value to the club dropped to negative 10,000. He was a 40-man roster spot getting WAAAAY too much money, for a guy no longer even qualified to claim AAAA status. He was less valuable to the Ms than Silva.
If this works, Jack trades a guy who'll be lucky to post a .650 OPS again before he's out of the game, for a 26-year-old never-quite-was Mark Grace wannabe. It doesn't change anything about the Carp situation, really. Everyone, (especially the beat writers), ASSUMES that Kotchman will just be handed the 1B job as the entitled vet. Is there ANYTHING that has happened in the past year that supports that view?
I believe Kotchman will have to BATTLE Carp for that 1B slot -- and that bringing in the good glove 1B to push Carp "defensively" is an excellent move. Carp will have to prove his defense against Kotchman. Meanwhile, Kotchman will have to prove his offense against Carp.
People rail about the uselessness of the Cedeno/Olson for Heilman trade. They miss the point that Jack was *CORRECT*, even though the results didn't pan out. Jack wanted an MI who could potentially replace Yuni -- because he had little faith in Yuni. He also wanted to stack up LOTS of young arms in the minors, because he understands that in an average year, EVERY team will have to dip down and find a couple of young arms to fill in.
If he just holds onto Heilman, yeah you've got a disgruntled vet in the pen who wants to start, and still have nobody to step in for Yuni. Well, Yuni DID fail. And the club DID need additional starters, (including and beyond Olson). But Cedeno and Olson both had something Heilman didn't -- the uncertainty of upside youth. They had the POSSIBILITY of stepping up and surprising. Even though both failed -- the truth is that Yuni did fail, and it wasn't until August that the club was convinced that they had an arm worth bringing up from the farm that wasn't brought in by Z.
I'm one of Carp's biggest fans - but I love this move, because it IMPROVES THE TEAM. Kotchman is a VASTLY superior MLB player today than Bill Hall. It's not even remotely close. And if people would stop obsessing about winning "this year" they'd start to understand that Jack is looking 3 moves ahead. He got Bill Hall because AT THE TIME, Hall provided something the club didn't have. But, getting Figgins improved the team and made Hall superfluous.
Swapping Hall for Kotchman improves the team. And maybe Z turns around and trade Carp for something else that helps the team. Or maybe they battle for a job in ST. Or maybe Carp faces righties and Kotchman faces lefties, (since Kotchman doesn't have much of a split). Everyone is making assumptions about playing time that I just don't see as a slam-dunk. But, picking up 20-somethings who have posted .840 OPS figures already, but then been pegged as journeyman is EXACTLY how one gets cheap "surprise" finds off the discard pile. No, he's not Branyan -- but he's much younger, and 'might' be ready to actually work his tail off to EARN a full-time gig.
Kotchman is more likely to be a tertiary or not even truly final move. I almost look at it like an impulsive buy because you see the spinach is 59 cents a bundle one day.
Hall is entirely a redundant and useless part that was spun for another part that can help the team. But I'm personally not impressed nor optimistic with the upside on it.
I think we'll see on Opening Day. If he's starting, then we have a long ways to go. But I doubt he will be.
The one thing that seems glossed over in the obsession for run-prevention theory as a tool to marginalize another group of fans is this: There is a minimum standard of offensive competence needed in order to worry about how good your prevention abilities are to begin with. The M's were below this line last year and a bunch of things worked in their favor to succeed despite it. But note that the success was strictly in terms of having a winning season and they really weren't in the hunt for the playoffs. They have added one solid piece, some below avg. pieces and one huge question mark (Bradley).
Laws of diminishing returns are great to flex math skills, but in this case aren't based in reality. Have the M's added 50 runs to the offense? I'd say on paper, no, and that's a problem.
I'm with Doc on the Kotchman analysis - he's basically Greg Dobbs, except at the opposite corner of the infield. Dobbs also has a very pretty swing that's useless against real pitchers.
Philly did decently well with a few hundred ABs from Dobbs in 2 of the last 3 years. Trying to pick and choose their spots with him.
Last year he was an absolute disaster, but these things happen when you're not actually a very good player.
I feel basically the same way about giving Kotchman 500 ABs at 1B that I would about giving Dobbs 500 ABs at 3B. Except having a glove-first 3B can be seen as somewhat reasonable in certain circumstances. Kotchman plays one of the few positions at which you can stick a large, immobile object that crushes small round spheres into the stratosphere - and Casey definitely does not do that. Unfortunately, we need someone who does.
The only thing I see here is a glove to hold down the position until we add a major 1B. Which is fine...as long as we actually ADD a major 1B.
Either Branyan comes back, or we go add a monster before the trade deadline. This team isn't winning a pennant with the current offense going the whole distance, and I kinda thought that was the whole point.
~G
I think they traded for Kotchman to get rid of Hall, who we didn't have much use for here, and to provide health insurance and a useful bat off the bench and a good defensive replacement glove. Basically...he was "free" and we could turn Hall into something useful. I don't see Kotchman as the starting first baseman.
If Kotchman is there to compete -- in an interim -- that's a different subject.
And, of course, shedding Hall is a plus.
Another spot-on comp. On about four levels.
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Like we say, where are the 3 and 4 hitters. WHILE THOSE ARE ABSENT, the Hannahan 1B, Chavez LF, Kotchman 1B et al's will continue to drive jemanji up the wall.