Q. Is it reasonable to view Chavez as a blue-chip prospect?
A. It isn't, no.
League, we argued Devil's Advocate that it is reasonable to view League as a franchise pillar.
There is no analogous case to be made, IMHO, that MC/SSI analysts are missing anything on Chavez.
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We pointed out this Hardball Times list last night, and as you'll note, Chavez is #1 on it. Chavez is no ball of fire, but neither is anybody else on that list.
What happened, quite obviously, is that Ricciardi said "Sure, we can do something around League for Morrow. Pick anybody out of our minor-league system who isn't Snider, Wallace, or anybody like that." You can be sure that's what happened.
Zduriencik picked Chavez. As so often, this is a tools-oriented, non-saber move -- the kind that Zduriencik usually makes.
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Q. Could Chavez help?
A. I did like the comparison to Greg Halman. On the Chavez videos, note the big, strong hands. How tiny and light the bat looks in Chavez' hands. The NFL tight-end gait as Chavez storms around the bases.
The movement of Chavez' head at swing, the max-effort, is enough to send hitting coaches screaming into the night. He's extremely raw. But yeah, I think the comparison is more to Halman than to Balentien.
Halman would rank considerably higher, of course. With Chavez, you're talking about a guy just getting started.
IMHO, there's no reasonable way to sell Chavez as a huge prospect. This is nothing but, "Take your pick of these org prospects."
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Q. Is that all the prospects the Jays had?
A. The HBT list makes the Mariners' recent lists look pretty glamorous, does it not?
The Mariners do get undersold by minor-league analysts. Once the big club starts winning, all of the analysis of their prospects will become biased for, instead of biased against.
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Q. Which makes it an even-steven swap of Morrow for League?
A. Yep. Judge it that way.
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Q. Could this be a "makeup call" for the Cliff Lee trade? Maybe Zduriencik and Anthopoulos considered this the extra value needed in the Halladay-Lee trade?
A. Ingenious :- ) but MLB bidness don't work that way.
There is a whale of a lot of paperwork on a deal like this. Tough to sign all the papers on the sale of an 8-plex, finish that, on a wink that you'll also probably do the deal on a strip mall. The guys want the signatures at the same time.
Also, the M's only get Cliff Lee for one year. Aumont, Ramirez, and Gillies is plenty for a rental player.
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It is, of course, possible (and probable) that the Jays and M's were talking about this deal concurrently, and that Anthopoulos figured, okayyyyyy... if I can get Morrow in here, it makes the whole scenario work...
The trade is League-for-Morrow. Zduriencik wanted to do that.
Cheers,
Dr D
"Sure, we can do something around League for Morrow. Pick anybody out of our minor-league system who isn't Snider, Wallace, or anybody like that." You can be sure that's what happened.
I sure hope that didn't happen (and I don't think it did). Toronto has some specs that are a LOT better than Chavez IMO.
Not spects who are regarded blue-chip by baseball in general. After Snider and Wallace, the Jays don't have Clement, Triunfel, Morrow-type prospects.
The difference between Chavez and Arencibia, objectively speaking, is relatively subtle. Neither are odds-on to start in the majors. Yours and my preferences are another question.
I don't think the difference is suble. Arencibia is nearly MLB ready and has developed into a solid defensive catcher. Hes ALSO a tools guy, a Catcher, WAS a top prospect coming into the season, and with nearly the same number of minor league ABs, is already starting to figure out AAA ball. Don't get me started on Stewart vs Chavez...
Chavez has 335 minor league games and is still putting up horrible eye ratios during his second season in Low A. Ugh...hes well behind even where Wlad was at the same time in development.
I
I'm confused, Doc. In previous writings you have noted that EVERY organization not only has decent prospects, but DOZENS of tradeable commodities.
Yet, even after finding a source which rates Chavez not just AMONG the top Blue Jay prospects, but rates him the absolute best -- you rate the trade as a straight-up Brandon/Brandon swap. From my perspective, you're saying Chavez has absolutely zero value as a prospect --- which seems to go completely counter to your previous position that every org has dozens of prospects with some value.
Okay, I understand that one might have different preferences for a "top" prospect versus only a "good" one. But, I find the notion that when the moon is full every organization has dozens of prospects with value to be complete at odds with the sentiment at the new moon that Toronto's entire prospect pool isn't worth looking at.
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That said -- here's a poser. How often does a player in A-ball hit more HRs than his age? Chavez at age 20 hit 21 HRs for Lansing. Okay, I get that he fans too much and doesn't walk enough. He's not MY kind of prospect, (Carp is). Then again, he fanned only 11 more times in 106 more ABs on his second pass, so there was some improvement. His walk rate is sad ... but his OBP isn't horrible, because he's getting plunked a lot. (I was trying to figure out how the kid was showing 60-70 patience numbers on such low walk totals. Getting plunked 13 times certainly helps the old OBP.)
It's the 190 ISO from a 20-year old that is attractive from a SABR view. That 190 ISO was his "baseline" ISO from rookie league. After his trainwreck of a season in 2008, he's right back to 190 again in 2009.
All in all, I like League a tad more than Morrow, and getting a roll-of-the-dice Ortiz in the mix is gravy. But, I'm fine with being in the minority anyway. The age/years/control issues between the two Brandon's are a plus for Toronto, so a little sweetener is in order. Though I truthfully see this as just a part of the original Lee deal, where your theorhetical exchange is likely right on target -- except that it was the final exchange to go ahead and close the part of the deal with the Phillies ASAP.
Only Jack's hairdresser knows for sure. :)
Every org does have tradeable prospects, as we've just seen. Great prospects?
Idea isn't that every org has the same number of glam prospects, but every org can put together 3-5 prospects to trade for Adrian Gonzalez, pretty much.
Toronto just promoted Snider and Wallace, as you know, as well as Cecil and Lind recently (about as recently as Adam Jones).
If the Jays wanted to trade for AGone, let's say, then Snider-Wallace-Cecil-and-Padres-choice-of-two would get it done, I'm sure.
Don't think the idea was that Seattle would have no interest in picking four names off that list, if allowed.
The question in OTHER peoples' minds is whether any ONE of those prospects, along with a setup reliever, is worth our best young tradeable player...
The Jays' top 10 list is in a bit of a down cycle at the moment, because of the recent promotions. It'll be back next year, I'm sure.
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Your point seems to be that Chavez, Arencibia, etc., are more worthwhile than Seattle fans are giving them credit. That was my point as well.
Remember, I've been the one person arguing that the trade is sensible :- )
It is reasonable to assume that Toronto has several interesting propects.
IMO Chavez is not one of them.
Would that I could be so wonderfully succinct. :)
:- )
I much preferred Arencibia at the time and it just goes to show that development 'speed' is really important in addition to the tools.
Hes got a 955 OPS in AAA this season and is tearing AAA to shreds in June with an .800+ SLG.
If we had Arencibia instead of Chavez, this trade would look great right now.
*scratches head* Why would they have given us Arencibia? We knew about him, I mean we drafted the kid. But why would the blue jays give us their #1 draftpick, knowing catchers take a while to develop with a bat, instead of the free swinging international kid we did get?
Was there some rumor that said we turned down Arencibia and I missed it? Because I can't imagine being able to pry him out of there, no matter what his offensive numbers were at the time.
~G
Maybe not, but at the time the debate was over Arencibia vs Chavez on SSI. Arencibia is proving to be the vastly superior prospect.
Arencibia is 24 and repeating AAA. Chavez is 21 and in his first year of A+. Hard to compare them.
I don't see Chavez as a disappointment as a 21-yr-old: .290/.356/.530 -- 34 xbh, 15 HR, 24 walks, 78 K in 283 AB. Striking out at the Saunders rate, not the Halman rate.
Can't argue with that. Arencibia was always a far superior prospect to me. And he's a catcher - I don't get tied up in early minor league offensive returns with those guys.
Chavez had a terrible eye, now it's improved to just "bad." He's like the apprentice to the Halman/Peguero throne that was gifted to them by Balentien.
If he makes it, great, but I'm not holding my breath.
As for Arencibia, maybe we can talk the Blue Jays into a 3-way deal that nets us JP back as part of the Lee spoils. :)
~G
Ya, but High A is a launchpad. Chavez has a 799 OPS on the road and horrible eye.
At the same # of minor league PAs, Saunders was in AAA and Wlad was in AA. Arencibia went to college, but is currently mashing AAA pitching under the same MiLB PAs.
Gotta agree.