Q. How good was he in 2007-08?
A. He had a batting line of 310/425/550, in 750 plate appearances across 24 months.
In terms of HR rate, walk rate, doubles rate, speed ... he was a switch-hitting Edgar Martinez. With a few more dings and few less walks.
He was Matt Holliday, if Holliday had a little more OBP.
He was Jason Bay, if you added 30 points of AVG, OBP and SLG.
Bradley, in 2007-08, created 9 runs per 27 outs -- for the non-saber reader, if you'd had nine Milton Bradleys in the lineup, you'd have scored 1,450 runs and averaged 9 runs per contest.
That was based on the basic idea of a .320 average with 40 doubles, 30 homers, and 100 walks per full season.
.
Q. What happened in 2009?
A. The below are the facts of the case:
There are two possible interpretations of this.
.
Q. The first interpretation being?
A. That, at 31, he lost his reflexes and went from a 999 OPS guy to a .397 SLG guy, having an early-age crash that puts Richie Sexson's to shame.
Check Bradley's run values on curves and changes last year. That's either (1) losing your bat launch and cheating on every pitch, or (2) going up there and flailing away without any effort to think with the pitcher.
.
Q. The other interpretation being?
A. That Bradley, in a strange league, off to a slow start, and physically in excruciating pain ... simply went up to the plate looking for a tater pitch every AB.
Take the time to go to MLB.com and check Bradley's scatter-charts for 2008 and 2009.
In 2009, he's rolling everything over to the second baseman. In 2008, he's got the most beautifully-centralized scatter-chart you could imagine. It looks like Edgar's.
........
If this be the right interpretation, then all you need is for Bradley to get back into the AL, relax into his swing, hit the ball where it's pitched and boom. 300/400/500.
.
Q. Which do you think is correct?
A. The one the Mariners think is correct is the second one. They just put him on the marquee as a MOTO hitter.
They've looked at this, it's safe to say, and they've published their conclusion. The Mariners' team assesses Bradley as a great hitter and 2009 an outlier.
That's good to know.
.
Q. How much can he play?
A. He's a Nick Johnson type (although a far better hitter and player).
It's always something, a soft-tissue thing. Think Eric Davis. The man is wound so tight that he's always pulling something.
Here's where I get a bit queasy at the fact that my son's hero is here, because if you DH'ed Milton Bradley exclusively, he'd give you 120 games and outhit Mark Teixeira.
Of course, Griffey being here is liable to be the thing that keeps Bradley in a positive frame-of-mind, so....
Let's see. 90 games for Bradley at DH and 30 in LF ... 70 games for Griff at DH and 10-20 in LF. How's that for you?
.
Q. Does he leave any money in the budget?
A. :- ) They owed Silva $25m and sent along $9m ... that's technically a savings of $16m. $8m saved this year, right?
Not so fast. It's strictly the M's choice whether to put Silva's $9m onto this year's payroll, or $4.5m of it, or $0.0 of it.
Bradley makes $9m this year and $12m next year. Silva made $11.5m, $11.5m, and don't forget the $2.0m buyout in 2012.
If the M's split the money sent to Chicago as $4.5, 4.5, 0.0, then they just added $2.0m to this year's payroll. But they could log that as anything from -2.5 this year to +6.5.
..........
If they want to, the M's are no less able to sign Jason Bay -- or trade for Adrian Gonzalez -- than they were before the deal.
Cheers,
Dr D
>How good was he in 2007-08?
In 2008 when Bradley had a break out year TEX had Steve Hecht as performance coach.
I hope Bradley will repeat 2008 performance with some mental guide with Steve Hecht.
But it maybe only me that thinks a mental trainer will do wonders to a player like Bradley.
I've always been a huuuuuuuuge believer in the idea of faith. Now don't roll your eyes, just hear me out.
With a doctor/patient relationship, the doctor is the advisor and the patient is the decision maker. Ultimately, the patient has to do the vast majority (80%) of the work, the doctor just helps. So if the patient doesn't have absolute faith in what the doctor is instructing them to do, the whole thing is going to fall apart in short order, and whatever gains you hoped to make will actually invert, causing more damage along the way to (hopefully) eventual recovery with another doctor.
For a guy like Bradley, having someone in his corner, sitting on the bench with him or even just a really good friend at home, who he trusts COMPLETELY, that is the key to his maintaining an even keel. We all know people who are in the Bradley template, people who just for whatEVER reason can't accept criticism, no matter how it's packaged. What works for those people is someone they can trust who gives them nothing but genuine, 100% positive reinforcement.
If there's no trust, then the whole thing will fall apart. But if he trusts that the advisor/doctor/teammate/coach/friend/partner is truly honest and truly on his side, then that is the absolute key to maintaining his forward momentum. It's so easy for this type of person to spin 180 degrees and start using his incredible determination to undermine and destroy everyone and everything that supports him. Just gotta keep him pointed in the right direction, and if he does pull a Crazy Ivan, back as far away as is needed so he doesn't find a target in the wrong direction.
>But if he trusts that the advisor/doctor/teammate/coach/friend/partner is truly honest and truly on his side, then that is the absolute key to maintaining his forward momentum.
Yea. I agree 100%.
My point was the fact that Hecht and Bradley was on the same team in 2008.
Whether Bradley trusted Hecht or not I don't know. But the fact stands that he had a monster year. So I assume that Hecht had a very positive influence on Bradley.
I am sure that Z asked Hecht what kind of player and personality Bradley has before the trade.
If true, who are the candidates to fill the Hecht role in '010?
Hecht is still performance coach for M's in 2010
It's a pleasure watching this guy work. Not every move will go as planned, and on a long enough timeline some will downright implode, but I absolutely love the foresight and clarity of vision here.
Good stuff. c-points.
Am getting more optimistic with each MC/SSI post. ;- )
DrD you should make POTD of Steve Hecht.
He was 3 years with Rangers(06-08) and got to Seattle 2009.
Looking at the performance of the team he is worth 2 to 3 WAR :D
That is a whale of an alert catch you made there on Steve Hecht. :golfclap:
There is something that G_Money brought up at Mariner Central that doesn't jive. Take a look at Bradley's home/away splits last year. Ye gads, what a horrendous split!
Home: .296/.407/.485/.892
Away: .214/.347/.299/.646
That looks an awful lot like what you would see of a prospect playing in High Desert, only reversed! How do you explain that, Doc?
Lonnie
Check out the extended splits on B-Ref...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=bradlmi01&year=20...
Split
G
GS
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
TB
GDP
HBP
SH
SF
IBB
ROE
BAbip
tOPS+
sOPS+
Home
62
57
246
206
38
61
10
1
9
28
2
1
33
48
.296
.407
.485
.892
100
5
6
0
1
4
1
.347
130
132
Away
62
51
227
187
23
40
7
0
3
12
0
2
33
47
.214
.347
.299
.646
56
5
5
2
0
0
2
.270
67
80
For all intents and purposes, it looks pretty identical, outside of BABIP, and by extension, results.
But more interesting...
Split
G
GS
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
TB
GDP
HBP
SH
SF
IBB
ROE
BAbip
tOPS+
sOPS+
1st Half
71
59
256
210
28
51
9
1
6
21
0
0
41
48
.243
.379
.381
.760
80
7
5
0
0
3
1
.288
96
105
2nd Half
53
49
217
183
33
50
8
0
6
19
2
3
25
47
.273
.377
.415
.792
76
3
6
2
1
1
2
.336
104
112
His year splits are interesting because he starts the first half with a pretty good K/BB, despite the 'slump'. But then, the jets turn on for higher slash stats, but his K/BB tanks.
I think a bit of it looks like heavy pressing on the part of Bradley. The Pennant Run heats up, so he starts pressing. Then it all hits the fan.
UGH: Please allow us some HTML coding for tables and stuff.
I take it as random noise, Lonnie.
That the Slash Stats change by month may suggests that Bradley actually started the first time around the league very, very carefully. His K/BB is practically 1:1.
But second time around, he starts swinging a lot harder, or at least he tries to. It may be that MB wasn't able to keep his production up because of injury and pressing at the plate, mainly due to the pressure cooker Cubs.
nm
Funny Lonnie, looks like Jr's numbers from 09, too.
Home: .268/.382/.548/.930
Road: .174/.278/.306/.584
Well, I guess MB wasn't quite Jr. Also, MB started 107 games in the outfield last year before things melted down. Why is everyone projecting him to get 60 games in the OF and 90 at DH? Do people still think the M's are going to bring in Bay or let Saunders rot on the bench for 70 games in the season? Milton is the new LFer and Griffey is the full time DH until they don't produce. Langerhans will give Bradley days off in LF and on those days Bradley may spell Griffey at DH, or not.
My biggest question is why Griffey can't hit on the road. But that's for a different thread.
Another example of why we need to be alert for stat-splits that are just random fluctuations. Obviously Ken Griffey Jr., after 20 years, is not psyched out by road contexts all of a sudden.
Both Junior and Bradley have real bad legs, though, and the time in airplanes, airports, and hotels could leave them feeling more sore than when they're at home. I've never seen a study for older guys with terrible knees and hammys, and their home/road splits.
I don't picture Junior as a party animal on the road ...