Q. Would LaRoche get two thumbs up, or two thumbs down, from SSI?
A. As a consolation prize for a marquee bat like Jason Bay, Adrian Gonzalez, or even a Carl Crawford -- paid 3/$32m to hit fourth -- two huge thumbs down.
As an upgrade to a Nick Johnson concept -- taking a much smaller contract -- he could help the M's win a championship.
As a replacement for Russell Branyan -- he'd be a melancholy, but logical, risk management plan. Where Branyan could give you $1.00 or $0.01 cent, LaRoche locks in the $0.50 cents. Like two backgammon players splitting the value of the doubling cube, Adam LaRoche "settles" the Branyan cube.
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Q. Most-comparable player?
A. If you have seen Raul Ibanez, you have seen Adam LaRoche.
The similarities made me smile:
Both hit for a 115 OPS+.
Both hit for about 15-20 runs above average, if you want to look at it that way.
Both give you about 6.2 runs a game, if you like RC/27.
Both hit lefty, of course, and hit lots of line drives. The EYE is 0.50, a tick more or less, for both.
You're talking .280-ish, solid not great walks, 25 dingers, 35 gappers.
They play similar positions and have terrible SX scores.
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Q. Any differences between the two?
A. LaRoche does hit the ball in the air more, and therefore LaRoche has a considerably higher PX. He's theoretically capable of quite a few more HR's than Raul.
LaRoche is also 30, and there are good reasons to believe he's got upside from what he's shown.
But then, Raul himself had upside. In 2006 and 2009, he unloaded big seasons on hapless skeptics. I'd say that LaRoche has a season or two like that in his hip pocket, as well.
"Upside" doesn't always mean that you leap a plateau and stay there. For Shandler fans, "upside" means "capable of a great season or two along the way." That's LaRoche.
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Q. Why do you say upside?
A. Thusly:
1. The HR's have not yet caught up to the 150 PX's. Typically a guy running 150 PX's, and hitting 25 homers, is going to show you a 33-homer season or two, at some point.
2. LaRoche, a young guy, has been a 2H player. (Better that than the guy who makes hay early, and then dies of exposure the second trip around the league.)
3. LaRoche saw an immediate uptick in his play when Boston and Atlanta exhumed his body from the Pittsburgh cemetery. Very possible he's simply spent his career demoralized at the losing.
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Q. Is he a platoon guy?
A. Nope. No more than Raul is. His platoon splits are no big deal.
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Q. Is he a fit for Safeco?
A. He really is, yeah. First of all, he's a quality lefty hitter; he's a definite flyball hitter; and don't sell his power short. At this MLB.com vidlink, check his two HR's on Aug. 12th.
Aside from leaving you going, Whoa, at his power, LaRoche's swing will remind you sort of as a cross between Russell Branyan and Ken Griffey Jr.
I'm not saying he's great. But he's a lefty hitter with legit plus power.
I wouldn't get carried away; his HR scatterchart isn't totally pull.
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Q. How does he fit into Stars & Scrubs?
A. If this guy were Your Big Move, that's a shame because he's Civic allll the wayyyy.
I was philosophically opposed to Ibanez coming here for the same reason: you need a Marquee Bat somewhere. If not LF (on that team), then where? ...But of course, Raul proved us wrong.
Like we sez, it depends on who you compare LaRocheto.
To Nick Johnson? All day long, baby. To a marquee LF? Sigh. Use Holliday/Gonzalez and Tui, not LaRoche and Figgins.
To Russell Branyan? Now that's an intriguing question... Find a way to get LaRoche in here as a SUPPORT player and you've really got something.
Cheers,
Dr D
Hes kind of a sligtly poor man's Branyan.
He has less power, more contact, but overall kind of similar offensively. I prefer Branyan only because if all other things are equal, the HRs are going effect the scoreboard more. Defensively Branyan is also a little better (roughly 5 runs).
I'd be ok with it as a cheap alternative, but I wouldn't be jumping out of my seat...
Given any reasonable prognosis on Branyan's back, would prefer him to LaRoche ... especially salary and years taken into consideration...
I'd bet on Branyan to post the better offensive line, straight-up, neutral park or Safeco. But of course that's if he stays on the field.
Gotta love Russell. He's a pleasure to have in class.
Remember my take on Langerhans? In summary, I said ... "nice bat, WILDLY inconsistent."
Great job in pegging LaRoche as an Ibanez clone "in the aggregate". The problem with LaRoche is that he makes DC politicians look consistent by comparison.
In truth, I hadn't followed him much after he left Atlanta, but that was my impression of him in Atlanta. So, I (of course), went to examine his more recent split charts.
For his career, he pegs as a slow starter: .773 first half, .909 second. But it's such a BIZARRE split - because it's driven almost exclusively by a .289 to .342 BABIP difference. That's with over 1400 PAs from each side. ?!?!
The truth is, there is likely not a more Jeckyll/Hyde player in baseball at the moment. On a given day he is EITHER Adam Dunn or Richie Sexson, (the bad one). Take a look at his 2009 monthlies:
April .916
May .650
June .983
July .502
Aug. 1092
Sept. .844
For more detail -- in June he had a 15/18 BB/K split. In July, 2/20.
Oddly enough, my memory said he was wildly inconsistent. But, the last SEASON where he didn't post a .500-something OPS for at least one month was 2006, (his last season with the Braves, before returning in late 2009).
This does NOT mean I'm saying he is to be avoided. I'm saying that the fact that he looks, in the aggregate similar to Ibanez does not mean they are going to "feel" remotely similar. Ibanez seemed to be almost a machine with his consistency. His slumps were rare, and his hot spells, (outside of Philly in 2009), were solid, but not earth-shattering.
LaRoche is *THE* master of inconsistency. Spin the wheel of destiny each month to see if you get Dunn or Ronnie Cedeno. THAT is the LaRoche Experience.