Q. So what's the saber assessment of him?
A. What's to saber? When the guy's on the field, he's awesome. He and six or eight other guys, Halladay, Felix, Greinke, they overmatch their opponents.
Some years one's a shade the better, some years a shade the worse. They're all Cy Young starters. We're not using instruments fine enough to discern which one's better. It doesn't matter much.
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Q. So Harden's as good as anybody. What's the best-case scenario on his 2010 results?
A. That the Mariners sign him, pitch him 5 innings about once every ten days, and then ride him white-knuckle in the playoffs as he wins two games a series.
Obviously if Harden gets on a roll, the games are going to be as much fun as Kingdome 1997. The man dominates like nobody else in baseball, including Lincecum and Felix.
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Q. Is that worth a try?
A. If you're totally clear about seeking 100 or so innings from him.
Harden, despite his brilliance and despite throwing well late in 2009, will be worth about $18 roto.
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There are certain pitchers -- David Cone in the 90's -- who could limp along saving their bullets, and then dominate in the playoffs.
Harden's injuries are chronic. No, what's beyond "chronic"? Catastrophic.
Again and again, just about every year, Ron Shandler points out some example or other, "Chronically-injured players don't suddenly get healthy."
We're not talking about an Erik Bedard, who's been healthy 2-3 years, in dry dock two years, healthy 2-3 years, in dry dock 2 years. Rich Harden has never had a healthy season.
Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar, all these fragile aces string together a couple of clean years here or there. It's one thing to have two major injuries -- Bedard's TJ in the minors, and now his Carpenter shoulder -- and it's another thing to have a Chris Snelling body.
All the roto champs stay wayyyyyy clear of injury cases like this. Granted, they'll take a flier on Harden at $9 roto, like the M's would at $7m or whatever.
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Q. It's worth a flier, though.
A. Sure, depending on the $$. It's awfully tempting.
As we all know, 125 innings of Harden plus 75 innings of (say) Doug Fister are preferable to 200 innings of a Jarrod Washburn type. In 125 innings, Harden is going to be -30, -40 runs better than RLP.
There's going to be a disconnect between Dr. D and all the non-roto types here. Rotodweebs just get sick of watching Rich Harden types get hurt.
Rotodweebs keep track of which investments pay off, and the Harden ones usually don't. Shandler on Harden specifically: "Chronically-injured players don't suddenly get healthy. Beware."
That ain't what anybody wants to hear, I know. :- )
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Yer gotta admit, fellers. It's a little ironic, the gushing over Harden when -- given an optimistic assessment by the doctors -- Erik Bedard is probably the same idea, but better.
Nobody is assessing the Bedard scenario in terms of its best-case outcomes. Enthusiasm for one variation, over the other, warps judgment...
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Lieber, Smoltz, Penny, thanks for the names Matt... did you look those up, or is your memory that encyclopedic :- )
SOMEbody is going to purchase EriKKKK with exactly that idea in 2010... come October, some playoff opponents are going to see the real meaning behind the term INVESTMENT...
I just remembered Lieber because at the time I laughed at them for doing it...Smoltz and Penny were last year so I remembered because I was annoyed at the Sox scooping up ALL of the reclamation projects in baseball (they added Baldelli, Saito and a couple of others too).
And yes, I can well see Bedard getting the same kind of deal Smoltz did...one year 4 mil with incentives. And I can well see him helping out a winner.
As far as your proposed roster goes, after further review, I have a couple quibbles..
1. Your salaries are a bit off. I am sure it will take more than $1 mil for Zaun. I like to think both Harden and Bedard earn higher incentives, or else they did not do too well. Last, i keep seeing $6-7 Mil per year for Branyan.
2. I believe that Olson, Petit, and White are out of options...so they must stay on the team, or they will be lost on waivers.
3. I would hate to repeat the starting then relieving thn starting of Morrow. Thus, unless he is lights out in SP...Morrow starts in Tacoma on a strict pitch count of 80 - 90 pitches so he can last all year.
4. French is a starter, and he has options. He starts in Tacoma. I would suspect the same treatment for Fister, but I am not as firm on that.
Thus, I keep your same position players. I make the following changes to start off the year on the pitching side:
Starting - Felix, Harden, RRS, Snell and either Olson, Petit or Silva
Pen - Aardsma, Lowe, Kelley, Vargas, White, and the left over 2 from above.
My guess at Payroll is $98 Million
1) No, I don't think it will cost more than at most 1.5 million to sign Zaun. He's 40. And no, Bedard is unlikely to earn more than 5 million even with incentives. Boston...the second richest team on the planet, did something similar with John Smoltz last year...his base salary was 4 million and his incentives were nothing. I also don't know where you heard 6-7 mil for Branyan...I heard the team had offered him a 1 year 6 million dollar deal and he turned it down because he wanted 2 guaranteed years. The next step in negotiation would be to offer two guaranteed years at slightly less money per year.
2) Petit will either make the big leagues as a reliever or be released. White is out of options and in my bullpen as before, Olson will probably be released. Petit was a bullpen flyer just as Walker was last year...Z has no qualms about releasing flyers like that if they don't pan out.
3) The question as to what to do with Morrow is a fair one...but even throwing 90 pitches per start, he won't last the whole year. The Mariners are going to have to Joba him. He has to make some relief appearances...either early in the year or late. But even if you want him to start in AAA (and I'd be OK with that)...Fister is the natural fifth starter...not Silva.
4) French will start the year in AAA, most likely, I agree. My placement of him in the bullpen is as a late-season option if Vargas or Varvaro can't make it as a LOOGY. Although he has started in the past, he is a 4 inning pitcher in all of his big league record...he has great stuff for LOOGY duty and I believe he will eventually end up in that capacity.
The most logical season-opening rotation would be:
Felix / Harden / RRS / Snell / Fister
Morrow starting in AAA to get ready for the rotation, Bedard on the DL until he's healthy, Silva pitching in mop-up duty.
That makes the bullpen:
Aardsma (CL) / Lowe (SU) / Kelley (SU) / Varvaro or Vargas (LOOGY) / White (MR) / Petit or someone else (MR) / Silva (LR)
The M's payroll cap can, both in theory and this particular winter, flex some. I'll betcha.
If the M's are even halfway serious about being in on Bay with "pitching the priority" then you know they're not up against a hard cap :- )
is an old roto fave from what... twelve years ago :- )
Fun to see him getting his 15 minutes of fame. Around baseball nationally they're saying the same things we are in Seattle.