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My guess is that the Mariners will work out a deal with Jack W where they buy out his contract and then sign him to something like a 2-year $12 million (or maybe $10 million with incentives.)
Wakamatsu on the returns of Branyan and Wilson
I/O: MLB.com with a few quotes as to Branyan's and Jack Wilson's return.
Doug Miller opines that Branyan "figures to garner quite a bit of interest, particularly from statistics-oriented organizations." HEH!
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CRUNCH: By "statistics-oriented organizations," I guess we're thinking of BUZZIE Bavasi's 1940's Dodgers teams. Being as heavy focus on STATISTICS in player evaluation goes back that far, at minimum.
Present company excepted, there's an unfortunate little subtext in this ever-present "statistics-oriented organization" sharp stick that is always poking Dr. D in the eye.
.............
No doubt, very few of you amigos need us to remind you that:
(1) Miller, in his context, means to say "sabermetrics-oriented organizations";
(2) All 30 MLB teams are sabermetrics-oriented, relative to teams from 10 years ago, and there is no divide at all in the way that he implies there is;
(3) "Statistics," such as "18 wins," "5 losses" and "2.49 ERA" -- these represent actual events occurring on the green grass of MLB fields, not theoretical exercises for the nerd pack;
(4) Russell Branyan's 2009 season -- 31 homers in 116 games -- is not one that requires post-1900 (much less post-2000) methods to notice.
.............
In other words, if there were two kinds of MLB teams, (A) those who rely on OBP, K/BB, and xERA vs (B) those who don't ... it wouldn't be sabermetric teams who covet Branyan more this offseason.
But there aren't those two kinds of MLB teams any more.
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=== Branyan: 4:1 in favor of the return ===
Anyway :- ) in the article, Wakamatsu "doesn't tip his hand" but says that right now Branyan is getting ready for next season. LOL.
Zduriencik a bit earlier, but since Branyan's back started barking, made it clear that the Mariners would be extremely interested in having Branyan back.
But Capt Jack also sent clear signals that it would have to be at a nice hometown discount. (Remember!, Capt Jack is a dyed-in-the-wool penny-pinching Milwaukee transplant. Brewers, A's, and now Mariners players who play hardball at the contract table, simply move on.)
Prediction here is, 80-90% chance we'll see Branyan in here on (let's say) a 2-year deal. Any chance Branyan had at HUGE offers are gone with the back problems. So he's funnelled strongly back to Capt Jack, who evidently takes pride in discovering Branyan in the first place.
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=== Jack Wilson: Uh-Oh ===
Wakamatsu didn't tip his hand on Wilson earlier but .... ulp ... said that Wilson's 50 OPS+ with the Mariners is not relevant.
Wakamatsu said the priority for Branyan is to make sure he's ready to play next season. And he also said he would basically give Wilson, 31, a mulligan for his banged-up stint in Seattle.
"Absolutely," Wakamatsu said. "Him not being able to run like he can, and to be hampered by all those injuries, I think it'd be real unfair to make a judgment on how good of a player this guy is."
My take on that is: Jack Wilson is a pleasure to have in class, is their kind of player, and that Don Wakamatsu is too close to the situation to realize that they're about to pay $8M for another Ronny Cedeno situation.
Wilson played fully 31 games for the Mariners -- 116 AB's, comparable to what they saw before they bailed on Wlad Balentien -- and had OBP's and SLG's in the 2's.
Wilson is the Endy Chavez debate all over again: to what extent does great defense carry a substitute's bat. Bringing Wilson back would be an interesting debate if he were making $2M. Bringing him back at $8M -- when that's most of the way to an Adam Dunn contract -- what's that all about?
...............
There is an argument to be made for putting Mark Belanger at shortstop. Belanger hit for a 68 OPS+ and played magnificent defense for Earl Weaver.
But!
1. Belanger was not one of the Orioles' highest-paid players.
2. Earl put bat-first players at bat positions, and Belanger was there to balance this.
3. Earl pinch-hit for Belanger constantly, including taking Belanger's first AB away from him and subbing Belanger in defensively, in the bottom of the first.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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$5-6M for Wilson a price you'd pay? ... what do you expect him to hit the next 2 years?
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Not so much the price I'd pay, but what I expect Jack Z is comfortable with and what both he and Wak think he's worth.
I don't think offense if a big priority with them in regards to Jack W, although they probably believe he'll be fine. They're looking for defense and a guy in the clubhouse to replace Griffey and probably Sweeney. They'll save a few million on him this year at the expense of 2011 and possibly '12 and find someone to drive in runs from the DH slot.
I would also think that promising Felix a shiny, glittery defense and a huggable clubhouse will be a part of their pitch to extend him. Hopefully they sell it enough that he won't ask where the runs are going to come from. ;)
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Might be pretty unusual though, to take a guy like Wilson, buy him out, and offer him a 40% pay cut to stick with a new team.
We may find that it's $8M or let the guy go.
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As Grizzle keeps reminding me :- ) the cap space is limited. That $8M is important.
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On a certain level that probably IS part of the pitch... and Wilson is/was clearly part of their plan for that...
The M's are given credit for having very sharp pencils in the saber realm... hopefully Capt Jack comes in cranky on the morning that the actual numbers are placed on his desk on this one... :- )