.=== Exhibit A Dept. ===
Seattle fans have had a close-up look at a variation on this, that being Adrian Beltre. And what did that teach us?
In 2004, Adrian was simply "on" outside pitches in a way he's never been since. A pitcher would throw him a high-away pitch and Adrian would smoke it over the RCF fence. A pitcher would throw him a low-away pitch and Adrian would patiently wait on it and smoke it into the right-center gap.
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Adrian's hero-to-right-center syndrome echoes Bret Boone in the 2001-03 era in which Boone was, IMHO, incredibly bulked up. His strength allowed him the luxury of punishing away pitches hard to right field.
(This is why I'm so high on Matt Tuiasosopo: his natural strength allows him the timing luxury that Boone & others had when they were, IMHO, bulked up. The strength allows him to wait on the ball and still hit home runs, and will slow the game down for him, as it did for Boone and perhaps Beltre.)
(And, it increases our admiration for players like Jose Lopez and Ken Griffey Jr. Jose can't hit ANY homers to right field, guess why? Junior isn't aging like Barry Bonds, guess why?)
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=== LCD Dept. ===
I'm inclined to suspect that IFF there is a grand theme, it would be that something happened with these U-27 stars physically.
Partying caught up to a guy at age 27 ... or the back knee hurt so much that he couldn't swing correctly and get any quickness or torque, so scuffled along as a 100 OPS+ player ... or they just got out of their early 20's and lost a tick of speed .... or something like that.
For some batters, that little bit of explosiveness in the batter's box might be the key to their games, and you take that explosiveness away, and they're mediocre. That's my guess.
It could happen to a guy 27. For lots of reasons.
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=== LESSON LEARNED Dept. ===
But. Has Bill Hall lost explosiveness?
He just hit a 440-foot home run, and he doesn't look slow to the ball to me. He just looks like he doesn't see the pitches well.
Of course, he always had a lousy EYE. I'm wondering if, for a couple of years, he didn't just get some pitches he could hit, an extra 15 homers' worth a year.
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Bill Hall struck out 162 times, the year he hit 35 home runs, and he is not a man the size of Adam Dunn or even Jay Buhner. Bill has to swing absolutely pedal-to-the-metal to hit 30 homers. A swing that crazy all-out is vulnerable to exploitation.
I suppose the freefall is occurring as Bill presses harder and harder to recapture the 35 homers.
Lesson? Unless a guy's level of performance is very established, and unless he walks 90 times .... I'd be very careful with smaller players who fan 130+ times. They're probably trying to do more than they're capable of.
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As to what Pat Gillick saw in Bret Boone: the 3 years prior, Boone had hit 20 homers from second base, was a solid fielder, and The Boone always had the swagger. Gillick is big on projecting personalities.
Gillick no doubt thought he had a Jose Lopez type, on the cheap, and liked Boone's presence.
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What would be fascinating to know, would be whether Gillick knew about the Phil Nevin workout routine in San Diego, before he offered Boone a contract. There is something I'd like to know.
Cheers,
Dr D