=== Josh Wilson ===

I/O:  Hitting .143/.196/.200 the last month, with 16 strikeouts in 56 AB's.  Has 2 runs scored in 60 PA's (a pace for 20 runs scored in a season).

CRUNCH:  Wilson came in, had a hot week or two, causing folks to wonder whether he'd learned how to hit.  :- )

As Mark Twain would say, we'll bring the curtain down at this point in the discussion, out of sheer human kindness.

Well, okay.  As Bill James would say, we don't start wondering whether a 28-year-old has suddenly learned to play baseball because of a hot week or month.

On some of these amigos, Wilson, Hannahan, several of the pitchers, etc., we start thinking about the 1983 handbook -- track records, track records, track records.

.

=== Franklin Gutierrez ===

I/O:  Hitting .258/.312/.373 since the All-Star Break,with 17 walks vs 53 strikeouts.    Has been some time since Dave Sims raved about him as "by far the best player on the Mariners."

His second-half OPS+ was 82, after a first-half OPS+ of 114.

CRUNCH:  Gutierrez played 134 games in 2008.  He's 26, in great physical shape, and the decline began long before game #134.   It's not feasible to make excuses for Guti on the basis that he's not used to playing this many games.

..................

Mike Cameron was an extremely similar player and hitter to Guti.  FWIW, not all that much, at age 25, 26, and 27, he had no significant second-half fades.

..................

Typically Ron Shandler would interpret an age-26, 2H fade in one of two ways:

1) Part of the unsteady growth of a quality young player.

2) Shows that the 1H is about as good as it's going to get.

..................

As y'know, I love Guti's swing (as I liked Mike Cameron's real well).  He's shown visible progress in terms of checking his swing on the low-away slider.

I'd tend to interpret Guti's 2009 2H in both ways per Shandler:  nothing to worry about, just part of the learning process, and also don't expect a 135 OPS+ hitter out of this guy at any point.

A Mike Cameron career path is the midrange projection at the present.  Not a star IMHO any more than Jose Lopez is a star, but obviously a plus defender, at a premium position, with a solid bat, making arb money, is a huge asset.

.

=== Bill Hall ===

I/O:  Now hitting .184/.234/.345 in 24 games for the Mariners.   The 93 PA's are considerably more than he'd get in, say, a spring training.

6 walks, 36 (!!) strikeouts in 87 at-bats.  

CRUNCH:  It doesn't exactly look like it visually, and this administration doesn't crucify its own players the way the old one sometimes did.  But this is a Miguel Olivo situation, with that strikeout rate.

We've seen the staff do some neat things with hitters' mechanics, like with Mick Saunders', but Hall has a real good swing.  He just doesn't see the ball.

It didn't start yesterday, either.  The project remains interesting, especially with this staff, but I'll believe it when I see it...

.

=== Jack Wilson ===

I/O:  Hitting .241/.279/.310 the last 30 days.  It's not enough.

CRUNCH:  Can't pick up the option, not at that dough.

I was sympathetic to the idea -- a great defensive SS, and Jack's kind of player -- but he's got to be able to pitch in with the stick a little bit.  A 60 OPS+ is going to cancel even a great year by a Russell Branyan.

A slick glove that hits for a 60 OPS+, the rationale there would exist only at a minimum salary.   You can't possibly pay this guy big dollars if he's not going to hit at all.

Wilson's not the only alternative in baseball for Mariners SS 2010.  I mean, supposing he fell over Yuniesky Betancourt and was out for two years, you'd do something else then, right?

Wonder what Scutaro's up to...

Cheers,

Dr D