Griffey has had a little bad luck in 2009, but the biggest problem with Griffey's declined BABIP the past few years is the substantial decline in line drives.
Griffey's career BABIP:
Groundballs: .219
Flyballs: .093
Linedrives: .733
In 2009:
Groundballs: .124
Flyballs: .121
Linedrives: 756
Griffey was actually BETTER in flyball and linedrive BABIP this year. Groundball BABIP is where he suffered.
Assuming Griffey HASN'T declined at all in comparison to career BABIP, this is how you'd adjust for Griffey's BABIP in 2009:
Groundballs: +10.7 hits (He gains 10 singles, only 0.74 value of an XBH since only 7% of Griffey's groundball hits go for XBs)
Flyballs: - 3.3 hits (He was only slightly lucky in the XBH department since 55.4% of Griffey's non-HR flyball drop for XBHs)
Lindrives: -1 hits (31.1% XBHs)
In other words, Griffey would be credited for 6.4 more singles and would lose 1.4 XBHs into singles. No need to get super technical so lets say thats 6 more singles and 1 2B turned into a single.
This is the adjusted '09 line you come up with for 2009 Griffey.
.236/.343/.421 (764 OPS)
Personally I think this is a little generous since Griffey's true BABIP level has probably declined since his prime, but it gives you the high-end of what Griffey's adjusted line would look like and is probably pretty close to what he deserved. Considering a decline in footspeed and batspeed you'd probably want to adjust that line a little lower though.
=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
We say that Junior's 2009 and 2007 stats differ in no important respect. No important respect, that is, except one:
11% - HR/FB, Griffey, 2009
14% - HR/FB, Griffey, 2009
18-19% - HR/FB, Griffey, in his prime
So Griffey is essentially -- today -- the same hitter he's been since he was 33, except that now a good number of his HR's die on the warning track.
How many of his homers? About 10 per season. 11% vs 19%, considering that he hits a few more FB's now, leave you at about 10 homers a year deficit.
It isn't really that Griffey can't turn around a fastball; we saw his spectacular 415-foot HR off a 97 fastball from Tony Pena. It's more that if Griffey doesn't really muscle up, he's liable to leave too many of them on the warning track, or get under them just a bit.
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This warning-track problem should not be minimized. The difference between these two seasons ....
.300 / .403 / .490 ... 140 OPS+, 22 homers --- John Olerud, 2002
.269 / .372 / .390 ... 107 OPS+, 10 homers -- John Olerud, 2003
... was basically that Olerud started leaving balls on the warning track.
Interestingly, Olerud did NOT lose much BABIP in 2003; it went from .302 in 2002 to .290 in 2003. I don't believe that a loss of 30-homer power means that a player deserves to start BABIP'ing .189, do you?
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=== Dumb Question Dept. ===
Here's a very simple question that maybe a baseball player could answer.
Go back to Griffey's 1990's tapes and you will see a hitter who swung viciously hard at the ball. His belt buckle would be snapped around pointing practically at the 1B camera well; his head would be cockeye; his bat would brain the catcher if the poor guy didn't lean away from it.
Even a few years ago, Griffey's swing had quite a bit more oomph in it than it does now. Now Griffey's swing is smooth, very controlled, and he never comes anywhere near losing his balance on the followthrough.
What if Griffey simply took a Bill Hall-style whale at the ball, like he used to? Why not?
It's not a complaint. It's a question.
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Anyway, normalize Griffey's 2009 BABIP to, say, .265 -- as it was in Safeco -- and he winds up with a .265/.365/.485 line. The gruesome road BABIP wiped out his season.
I'd like to see Griff come back in a player/coach role for 2010, with 300 well-chosen, well-rested AB's, and help Wakamatsu train up the Rainiers in the way they should go. But don't kid myself that it's going to be the consensus. :- )
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I wouldn't bet anything that I was afraid to lose, that Griffey wouldn't go to Atlanta or Chicago NL next year and hit 270/370/500. His EYE hasn't fallen off a tick; he's not late on the ball; he hasn't patented a potion for running BABIP's lower than pitchers get.
He can still hit some, especially when rested. Whether some NL team will give him a shot at it, I wouldn't be surprised. He sells a lot of jerseys.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
We should EXPECT Griffey's BABIP on grounders to drop significantly when we introduce the Griffey-shift. They play 3 infielders to the right of second base and his dead-pull tendencies are going to KILL him...especially since he has to cheat on fastballs now and they can get him to roll over on off-speed pitches at will.
I don't really care how many splits and newber stats and Euclidean coniptions are offered up, the basic reality with Griffey is very, very, very simple. He's threatening the Mendoza line for one, AND ONLY ONE, reason ... he's 39 years old. And no amount of math can change one simple fact -- in 2010, he's going to be one year OLDER than he was in 2009.
Is it possible he could still hit at age 40? Sure. Reggie Jackson managed a fine season at 40, Frank Robinson, on the other hand, after posting an .894 OPS at age 39, showed a .687 the next season. Willie Mays hit .907 at age 40, and lost 100 points (and 200 PAs), the next season. NOBODY knows the exact instant when Griffey becomes an embarrassment at the plate. But does anyone who enjoyed seeing him do extraoridnary things WANT to see him continue to play until he does?
He's NOT gonna make it to 3,000 hits, or 700 HRs, or 1,900 RBI. He's not likely to make it to the WS is he stays in Seattle for another year.
Ya, but the Griffey shift has always been there for most of his career. Whatever penalties he has are reflected in the career BABIPs.
That said I do agree that Griffey's "true-talent" BABIP has likely declined with the decline in footspeed/batspeed, especially in grounball BABIP.
IMO Griffeys true 2009 line should be somewhere between the actual line and the "upper-end" adjusted line above. Its hard to say how much is bad luck and how much is just due to age although I think its closer to the adjusted line.
Griffey HAS been unlucky this year, but its less than you'd realize. Most of the decline in BABIP is just due to the fact that Griffey isn't consistently hitting the ball hard anymore (massive decline in line drives).
...when some of us (myself included) were SURE that Sexson's 2007 was mostly bad luck...that he'd rebound in 2008 when he got back to his usual .280 BABIP.
I think the BABIP drop-offs for older players are more likely to be real than at any other time.
Right. Griffey's adjusted line still has him at a very low BABIP and doesn't help his OPS out too much. The big BABIP culprit is the decline in line drives.
+6 singles is the high end IMO. It could be +4 or whatever if you think his groundball BABIP level has declined.
Either way, the adjustment isn't as significant as you'd think.
but .240 - .360 is supposed to the be feasible range for BABIP and here Griff is at .189 road.
I don't doubt that .250, .260 is his new BABIP, but...