So, you go to Fangraphs.com, which compiles the year-to-year changes for you. And all laid out for us, nice and neat, are the changes that Gil Meche made when he went from zero to hero.
The F/X data echoes what the eyes saw at the time. Meche began evolving in his last three months here, and the Royals completed the job for him. This is the kind of thing that has had them thinking, Hey, let's cherrypick the guys the Mariners aren't coaching...
What did Gil Meche do differently, to achieve those great 2007-08 seasons in KC, after 8 full years of futility in Seattle?
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Many fewer fastballs. With all apologies to our good buds who debate us about pitching backwards, there is no debate about what MECHE did to get good.
When he was lousy, for us, he was throwing 60-64% fastballs. When he starred for KC, he dropped to 48% fastballs. Bill James once complained about the Orioles' thrumming of his beloved Royals in the 70's: "They're a staff full of pitchers who have great fastballs and absolutely refuse to throw them to you."
With hitters guarding fastball all the time, Meche simply tossed one offspeed first pitch after another, and worked ahead in the count all the time.
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A very slow 3rd pitch. In his first year with the Royals, Meche threw almost 1/4 mid-70's breaking pitches -- along with all the low-80's sliders and changes.
Snell, right now, throws only two speeds: 92 and 83. Two-pitch pitchers need vicious bite on their offspeed weapon, as Jered Weaver and Erik Bedard have. Snell's change-slurve is actually kind of mushy and is not a strikeout pitch. Ian Snell's 83 mph offspeed zone is nowhere near good enough to make him a two-pitch pitcher.
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If Snell were to duplicate Meche's breakthrough, he would start throwing three speeds -- one much slower than his current change/slider.
Granted, Gil Meche already HAD a change-curve that was capable of locking hitters up. That's the big question. Does Snell actually HAVE a change-curve, like Meche does? The Fangraphs.com data is misleading on this one. Fangraphs tries to separate out three-four pitches when in fact the lines are blurry between even two.
But if I were Rick Adair, I'd be very interested to find out. Snell has got to throw something that makes hitters flinch with their hands -- a 3rd, slower, pitch mixed with the 83 would probably do it.
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Better command. Meche made a couple of simple mechanical adjustments -- we talked about them at the time, but I forget what they are now; landing on the front toe? -- and improved his FB location.
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If Snell were to duplicate Meche's path to mini-stardom, he would do the following:
(1) he'd get a little tweak in the mechanics from Adair and hit his spots a bit better; (2) he'd find a third, slower breaking pitch and use it a TON; and (3) he'd throw more offspeed stuff than he threw fastballs.
I'm not saying that's the only fix. But that was Gil Meche's fix.
Cheers,
Dr D
LL has a picture highlighting Snell's plant foot basically pointing to the 3B dugout with the title "Attn: Rick Adair. You still have some work to do".
Snark aside, Jeff does have a knack for seeing those types of mechanical issues in a pitcher. As he points out in the comments, it's an easy mechanical fix to see but a difficult one for the pitcher to put into practice mid season.
... doubt you'll find a lot of snark on SSI towards the estimable Mr. Sullivan. :- )
... if the toe is pointing toward 3B, that also causes the Aumont-type locked front leg, so that would definitely be job one.
A difficult fix? My old martial arts teacher would have (before a bullpen session) put something uncomfortable in my shoe, at the heel, so that I had to land on the front toe in Randy Johnson style. That automatically unlocks the front leg and would surely make Snell aware enough of his landing toe that he'd get it pointing the right way.
But Eastern teaching techniques are silly by definition, correct? :- )
When Snell locates, he still doesn't miss bats. Hitters sit 93 and adjust (easily) to the slurvy 83-83-83-83 pitches.
But LL's observation sounds like it would take care of #1 of the 3 things that the Royals got squared away on Gil Meche...
If Ian Snell is throwing with as much command as he is, despite crossing over a roadblocky front toe, that's pretty impressive.
...also saps velocity and I would think it would break his power breaking ball too (because landing with your toe pointing to third base causes your front shoulder to open up more than you want, creating less ability to snap your wrist through a breaking pitch)
Yeah - I think Sullivan says that it's really a muscle memory thing. You can do it in the pen all day long but once you are in the game it's a whole other paradigm and the old habit slips back in there. I can buy that.
I do agree that a mechanical adjustment won't solve all his problems but it would be a good step. Dude needs a circle change something fierce.
This.
Snell has a lot of things to fix (3rd pitch, mechanics, pitch selection), but the potential is there.
On a different note, Jakubauskas has thrown his fastball 73.5% of time this year.