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I'm getting dizzy here Doc. So do you like this guy or not? And tell me, have you retired the first Dr. Detecto Avatar? That should be enshrined somewhere.
Doogie and the Scrubs are lookin' good
=== Another Fine Myth ===
Am becoming positively fixated on the lad's performances at this point. :- ) Locked into his game vs the A's, slo-mo'ing and freeze-framing and generally geeking out all afternoon.
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Mechanical flaw. Doogie has a tendency to lean back ever-so-slightly at the waist on his backstroke.
Forgetting injuries for a moment, and talking about performance only, this is simply the worst mechanical flaw a pitcher can have. As you know, it is the flaw that cost Randy Johnson five years of Unit-age at the start of his career.
The leanback actually is caused by something good: he's connecting his shoulders to the ball, and reaching back to CF -- which gets his weight involved in the acceleration of the ball.
But it's the easiest thing in the world to fix. A single bullpen, thinking in terms of 'protecting' the belly button rather than letting the sun hit it, and he'd be cured.
...
Also, Fister reportedly didn't like the mound in Oakland.
...
At any rate, Doogie walked the first batter of the game. He also was high in the strike zone for much of the day. This is because he was not staying compact "at the top" of his backstroke.
Point is, I'd sure like to know what he'd do if this flaw were fixed.
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=== Fastball ===
He didn't have his real good command, obviously, but did have his (mediocre) velocity back again. He sat 89, and even touched 91-92. So my worries about the 86 fastballs have pretty well been put to bed.
Despite the minor concerns about the location, he still fanned 5 men and walked only 2.
We feel that he's capable of locating even better.
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He had most of the swerve / movement back, that he'd had against the Yankees. This time the swerve was frequently vertical. As usual, he had two of the three: (1) movement, (2) Radke-like command, (3) mediocre-but-sufficient velo.
Part of the game he had (1) and (3); some of it he had all three. That's when he fanned guys on the FB.
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=== Changeup ===
Is now firmly established as a plus, probably plus-plus, pitch. A "plus-plus" weapon is defined as one that is capable of impacting and maybe winning a game all by itself. You decide whether Doogie's changeup has in fact been impacting and winning games all by itself.
He threw fewer changeups in this game -- only about 1/3 of his pitches were changeups, as opposed to fully 1/2 in some of his starts -- and later we found out that a blister was bothering him. We assume that the blister was in a spot that was irritated most by the changeup.
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=== Swinging Strikes ===
Had only 6 swinging strikes -- but 5 strikeouts.
Dr. D constantly sermonizes that we should not get too cute with sabermetrics, chase the latest "cutting-edge" metrics, and outsmart ourselves. ... am well aware that there's a very strong correlation between S% and K/9, but this is very early in Doogie's career and he is still LOCKING. GUYS. UP.
These swerving FB's two inches off the plate are freezing ML batters like Marvel Comic ice storms, and once the batters start swinging, it's not like they're going to start hitting them hard.
As Jeter indicated after the Yankee game, the hitters are well-and-truly confused against Fister. The ball arrives in random sectors of the zone, at random speeds, at random depths, with random arcs on the tail of the pitch.
They're swatting mosquitoes right now, and lots of the time they let the ball go by on a CALLED strike, and it's not logical to deduce that once they start swinging they're going to do something with these mosquitoes.
The S% will go up. The K% will not. Then the metrics will stabilize.
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=== Current Board: Odds-On ===
For the first time after the A's game, Dr. D's odds on Fister went over 50%. We now think that -- barring injury or velo loss -- that Doogie will probably be an effective starter in the major leagues.
His fastball lacked the great command vs the A's, and yet once again, Doogie managed the A's lineup like Chris Bosio. I mean, Chris Bosio and Brad Radke lost games. Fister with his B game competes as well as the Bosio/Radke types ever did. It's getting easier and easier to imagine Doogie grinding his way through 32 starts with a 3.80 ERA in Safeco.
So for next year, you've got three young SP's you like, RRS, Fister and Morrow, pitching for peanuts. Who gets the money?
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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Ya, I should go find that avatar someplace, and use it every tenth post or something...
Yep, I like Doogie, and have since his first game... thing is, all such guys trying to establish themselves in the majors are underdogs, right? ...getting to the point to where you'd bet them odds-on is a major milestone IMHO...
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Considering I bumped Fister up to a solid B- or B pitcher on my depth chart grades some four weeks ago...it's nice to have your support on it. :) Any rotation that excludes Fister next season will be utterly and completely brainless. And I mean that as literally as I've ever meant anything in my life. King Felix, RRS and Fister are the locks. Make Morrow, Bedard, Silva and Snell fight over the remaining two spots and call it good.
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"The ball arrives in random sectors of the zone, at random speeds, at random depths, with random arcs on the tail of the pitch."
Sounds like a knuckleball. How does Fister's swinging K% compare to a knuckleballer's?
Maybe Fister can be what us Dickey fans were hoping for. But with command. :)
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Knuckleballers get some of the best BABIP's against, precisely because hitters are trying to swat mosquitoes with willow switches, and after that are the guys with change-speed games, such as Moyer.
Radke himself had a .275 lifetime BABIP.
Fister's is .236... can't stay that low, but is an interesting start...
I think when the hitters have to swing at different DEPTHS of the ball, that's when you see the weaker swings... if it's just different areas of the swing, they can haul off and whack at it, hoping to adjust the barrel's location...
But Doogie keeps them off kilter as to how deep a pitch is going to be... the knuckleballer thing hadn't occurred but is very apt...
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If you go to fangraphs.com > leaders > pitchers > starters > plate discipline > sort by swing % ...
Fister's 40.8 swing % would be virtually lowest in the major leagues, and that despite his tiny walk rate. The man is throwing everything for strikes and yet nobody ever swings.
Average is what, 46% or so ... Wakefield has about an average swing rate...
Moyer's lifetime swing % is 43.7%, well below average, and oddly, Radke's (since 2002) was 52%, way above average...
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Sort fangraphs > leaders > plate discipline by Z-swing % -- how often a hitter swings at a ball in the strike zone --
and Fister is HILARIOUSLY better than EVERYBODY IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES. He's at 55% and best in the majors right now is Gallardo at 59.9%.
I think that if you examine the Fangraphs table on Z-swing %, and consider Fister's 55.4% rate, that gives you the idea on this kid. No wonder S% was giving people the wrong idea on him.
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...Fister will run consistently low BABIPs...and if the Mariners keep fielding this well behind him, he could be lower than Radke was as long as the defense remains this solid. So the correction will not be all that severe in BABIP terms. I also expect hitters will start swinging at more strikes and that the common approach is going to be to swing at the first pitch against him a LOT...I remember the 90s Mariners doing that with Radke when he was coming up...attacking the first pitch a lot because they knew he'd be around the plate. The result will be a high HR rate, a very low walk rate (even lower than it is now) and a temporary drop in K rate until he adjusts and throws his plus plus change-up more often on the first pitch. How fast he adjusts will determine how fast he gels into a top 15 starter in the AL...and yes, i believe it's only a matter of time until that is true.
Doug Fister is the Real Deal...if the Mariners do not keep him in the rotation, I will be very upset.
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Did you see that sick, sick movement on his changeup? He threw it well inside to a lefty and the ball broke about 8 inches away from him for a strike. That is devistating!
Lonnie
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The change-up is clearly Fister's signature pitch...and it's the kind of pitch they're not going to swing through as often as they'll stare at it for a K. I'm willing to bet that kind of Maddux-style movement gets an unusuallly low S% / K ratio.
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He starts getting the tail as well, he's got a Pedro Martinez change there...
It was a "70" change without the tail... now what is it?
Funny thing was, he didn't get the K's off the change; he got them off the FB. Which tells you that the hitters were looking change first, and then getting blown away by 89 fastballs.
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Thats actually pretty likely to regress, as is the BABIP (his BABIP in minors has been .300+ the last three years in the minors). Guys right now are swinging at balls and laying off of strikes. Some of this is thanks to his pitching saavy and his changeup. A lot of it is also luck.
While hes due for a hard regression, Fister is starting to look like a Major League pitcher capable of holding down a #4-5 spot in the rotation next year for pennies. His changeup looks like its for real.