Seattle Sports Insider

Not So Fast on that Jack Wilson Option, Boys

Posted by

9/5/09

=== Respect for the Complexity of the Problem ===

Capt. Jack, of course, rox. We do, however, insist stubbornly that the differences between one pirate-ship captain and another are subtle -- that the GM world is best viewed in shades of gray, not in two tones black-and-white.

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In another article today, we gave our (un-)revised Luke French outlook. Maybe the lad will prove us wrong. We put the odds at 20:1 against him, day of trade, and the odds have gone south since then. :- )

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Freddy Garcia's trade value, in 2004, was equal to or less than Jarrod Washburn's this July, and Bill Bavasi philosophically went for (1) the White Sox' best hitting prospect, (2) a 25-year-old catcher who was slugging .496 in the AL, and (3) a prospect.

It blew up on Bill, horribly. This did not prove that his IQ was low.

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The Mariners, in 2009, were offered VERY serious minor league talent for Jarrod Washburn, including (reportedly) any 2-3 Yankee minors other than a list of four-five including Joba. Other teams reportedly made similar offers.

Z said himself, on the radio, that he'd had interesting offers of minor-league talent, but opted for Detroit's offer because French offered six years of immediate big-league help. This is precisely the prioritization of the immediate, that fans most objected to in Bill Bavasi.

AT THE TIME that the M's opted for Luke French, over these alternative hauls of longer-term resources, other teams around baseball were aghast (mostly because annoyed that their nice offers hadn't gotten them Washburn).

D-O-V was not a little amazed itself. We couldn't find a single player in French's template who was doing much in the majors, and IMHO Msr. French isn't going to be the first.

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Comparing the Washburn trade to the Garcia trade is comparing apples-to-apples. And doing so, helps us gain respect for the complexity of the problems that GM's face.

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The Adam Jones trade has been sold as one that was wrong in principle. However, the Jeff Clement trade was a more extreme violation of the same "don't trade WAR/$ ratio the wrong way" principle. Jeff Clement's 6-year WAR/$ is also large, and the Wilson/Snell return vis-a-vis Erik Bedard is far less.

I'm a big Jack Wilson fan, and I liked the reasoning behind the trade (the restructuring of the organizational attitude especially). But right now Wilson is .205/.239/.301 (!!) in the AL, with a 5/14 EYE. That's 43 years old in OPS+ years. It is an open question whether Jack Wilson is going to get Ronny Cedeno'ed in the AL.

NOT SO FASSSSST on that option there, boys! Are we SURE this guy can hit in the AL?

Ian Snell and his 23/19 reverse CTL has D-O-V quite alarmed, also. Right now Snell is not in my own top 5 SP's for next year. We know how much sleep the powers-that-be will lose over that fact.

Jeff Clement may very well hit 30+ homers some day. But you take the good with the bad, and that's the price of doing business for all GM's. Every sport.

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Speaking of Ronny Cedeno, he and Garret Olson were warmly welcomed into Safeco by every website in Seattle, except two (counting MC). We wrote at the time that both were easy writeoffs in the American League.

It's one thing to signal bunt, and have the guy pop up. It's another thing to signal bunt because you forgot there were two outs. ;- )

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The point isn't that Capt Jack isn't great. He is great! :- )

It's just that D-O-V believes that reason is better served when we realize that all 30 GM's in baseball are, in absolute terms, very good at what they do. Your local AAA pitcher, like Luke French, is a terrific baseball player in absolute terms, far better than you or me. Each of baseball's 30 GM's, and Bill Bavasi, are much more informed and experienced than any of us are. None of them are anything less than very intelligent.

Sometimes the difference between success and failure is more a matter of circumstance than anything else.

It comes down to the same ol' Bill James sermon. Respect for the complexity of the problem.

Paul DePodesta is a brilliant man. A high IQ can get engulfed by the tactical problems on the chessboard. Only the anointed few -- Pat Gillick, Walt Jocketty, perhaps Jack Zduriencik -- have the gift of simplification. The vision that cuts through a dozen confusing variables to identify what is most important about each problem.

Simplification is not driven by intelligence (alone), and it's not bequeathed by method (such as sabermetrics or positional technique or practicing the C-Major scale). It's mostly intuition. A man like Pat Gillick has the gift. Right now, it looks to me like Jack Zduriencik may have it, also. It looks to us like Don Wakamatsu likely has it.

=== Finishing Cheery, Dept. ===

On Saturday, Wilson was at 2B, Wilson was at SS, Hall was in the lineup, and we were positively choked with admiration at the grim determination with which the 2009 Mariners scrutinize their talent.

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It took the Mariners all of three weeks to cut bait on Carlos Silva, and they have shown a real touch for finding the choicest pasta to toss against the wall. Other orgs would probably not have gotten Doug Fister into the rotation this quickly; he was absolutely nobody in 2008. Other orgs wouldn't have sent Rowland-Smith down so purposefully and fixed him so quickly.

The org correctly settled on Mark Lowe and David Aardsma in innings 8 and 9 -- very quickly, despite a baffling array of choices including Morrow, White, Tyler Walker, etc -- and were certainly way ahead of me on that one. :- )

Other orgs might have given up on Brandon Morrow as a starter right now. Other orgs might not be as positive with Erik Bedard as the Mariners are being right now. If the Mariners pull a Cinderella next year, they'll have been planting the seeds under our noses right now.

Very FEW orgs, even the best of them, could have accomplished the culture transplant that Zduriencik and Wakamatsu did, in one spring training.

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This offseason will be as fun for me as for all of the Jack-can-do-no-wrong pundits. It will be exciting to see what sage moves the Capt. has in store.

But it's a bare-knuckle cage match in there. Like Zduriencik says, they'll be glad to improve, if they're given the opportunities. The other GM's aren't in business to make the Mariners better.

Enjoy,

Dr D

Comments

The French Trade

Was not about French, as you know. French was a warm body that could take Wash's place in the short term.
In a radio interview, Zduriencik said about this trade that it was - quoting almost verbatim - 'an opportunity to put a gun to the head of a scout'. Meaning someone out there really, really believed in Robles, and Z wanted to act on that.
In light of this I see this as a tactical organizational / management maneuver as much - or more than - a tactical roster management maneuver.

Hadn't heard this one :- )

'An opportunity to put a gun to the head of a scout' ? That is awesome
Which would make the point here a lot better than I did.... supposing in Bavasi's first big deal, he traded Garcia for a package about which he didn't know much, but wanted to test one of his scouts ... how does that get reviewed? :- )
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Still, in my own frame of reference, that's pretty cool ... and the reminder is well taken, that young Mr. Robles offers what chance we have of seeing nice return on the deal...

LOL on the Gargia

LOL on the Gargia comparison.. : )
Ya I was pretty blown away by the comment when I heard it. And actually he backed off it a bit immediately after he said it, realizing that the imagery was a bit harsh. But say it he did...
Now that I think about it, he *could* have been referring to French with that comment, not Robles. I assumed it was Robles, based on the context and all the chatter about it. But it was impressive to me that Mr. Uber-talent-evaluator was operating as manager and putting the onus of the decision on the people or person he's paying to scout these guys.

What is intelligence

While very tangential to your article, I don't think I agree with your characterization of intelligence. The greatest gift of intelligence is the power of synthesis. While not a synonym for simplicity, systhesis is the power to extract the wheat from the chaff. Nonetheless, I agree that being a good GM is about more than being intelligent because a manager must manage people as well as information.

Wouldn't argue with you Kelly

In chess that's one of the ways they define genius - the extra-class ability to categorize, compare, and synthesize to find solutions that other >140 IQ players can't find.
It's an awesome area of study, intelligence per se, and my simplified characterization above is certainly subject to debate. :- )
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Probably you and I would agree, though, that what separates Epstein, Gillick, and Jocketty from their peers is not an extra SD in the IQ distribution. :- )

I agree on Jack Wilson

Before this was posted, I had already been looking at 2010 roster construction ... and the guy I was LEAST enthused about (option-wise) is Jack Wilson. What I'm wondering is what is the defensive skew between Wilson and Hall.
Part of the thing that tends to get lost in roster turnover is that regardless of what you may want for the future, you've GOT to send somebody out there to cover each position every day. I suspect that Z included Cedeno because he had little faith in YuBet. But, Cedeno was a complete and utter disaster at short ... and by the end, it was clear to everyone on the planet that SOMEBODY was needed to replace Cedeno.
Wilson comes over and is viewed as a stablizing force at short, who can provide great defense, and (hopefully) adequate offense. Problem is, the offense doesn't happen, AND he gets hurt very quickly. Bad luck, yes ... but for 2009, most of the bill is covered. So, you're getting what you get basically free of charge.
But, for 2010, if you think Wilson is going to provide a .660 offensive contribution, then you've got to seriously debate whether it is remotely possible to cover his contract with defensive contribution. Me? I'd like to see Hall get the bulk of the September innings at short, if for no other reason than to get a real eyeball on what you think his defensive value is compared to Wilson. At this point, I think everyone would agree that Hall has far more offensive upside. He's also cheaper. If the defensive delta isn't too bad, the club has a LOT more payroll flexibility paying the 600K to get out of the Wilson contract, and accepting Hall as the interim SS, (pending any cheap spaghetti Z might toss into the pot during the off season).
I *LOATHE* the talk of moving Lopez to 1B. It's about the worst possible step the club could take going forward, because 1B *DEMANDS* .800+ production, and even though I'm high on Lopez, he'd be guaranteed to drop in relative value in such a move. But, with Branyan sidelined, SOMEBODY has to play first. So, against lefties, sure why not use Lopez there to get some more flex to look at other guys, (while still trying to compete with what you've got).
The surprising reality today is that AL 2B and 3Bs currently have nearly identical profiles. So, moving to third wouldn't change Lopez' value ... BUT, I believe it'll be MUCH harder to find a 2B offensive upgrade than it will at third. For 2010, DH, LF and 3B are the three positions that Jack can work on upgrading. The plus is that NONE are defensive-critical, (LF is the one that would skew a little up, due to Safeco).
If you have faith in Saunders, then you need to pull a Branyan/FGut success at DH and 3B. (Considering how bad 3B was this season, getting upgraded at 3B shouldn't be hard). But, Griffey and Sweeney -- especially with his recent hotness -- haven't been horribly below average.
In the end, I am liking the gamble of Wilson being able to post a .725 OPS in Safeco less and less, and to compete with the big dogs, the club CANNOT have multiple sub-.700 bats in the lineup. If Wilson is posting a .660, then the club has to roll an 8-dice Yahtzee everywhere else.
I agree that Z has had PLENTY of misses, (short term), but still love what he's done because almost every move made has been designed to address BOTH immediate and future needs. BUT, that's a trade-off. If you're addressing BOTH, then you're getting less quality in both categories. It's simpler to go after EITHER immediate or future needs. If clubs are offering 2-4 year prospects for Washburn, and you take it -- you've quit for 2009. So, if you want to "appear" to be continuing to try and compete in 2009, then SOMEBODY you get for Wash has to end up playing immediately.
French doesn't have what it takes, (today). But, I'm feeling that he's likely still suffering from that dead arm, and have hope that come 2010 after considerable rest, the fans might get to see what the scouts were selling Z.

Just a few more data points

Just a few more data points for the mix:
Mauricio Robles in Florida for Detroit's A+ team: 10.29 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9
Robles in Cali for M's A+ team: 9.46 K/9, 5.29 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9
He goes to the Cal League and only gives up one HR in 32.1 IP, but his walk rate goes up. Maybe a fair tradeoff for High Desert. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=paF06518&position=P
Jeff Clement was not rushed to a terrible Pirate team, but has been laboring in AAA, striking out more, and suffering from a .234 BABIP it seems. Looks like he's been almost exclusively at 1b, and did not get a Sept. callup right away. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4652&position=C/DH
Prior to having to excercise the option on Jack Wilson (one year/$8.4M or $0.6M buyout), they can negotiate a multi-year deal that obviates both the option and the buyout (point being, it's not necessarily either/or -- everything's negotiable). I seem to recall comments along the lines of 2-3 years at around $6M per.
They also said that they went after Wilson after years of seeing him play in the same division as Milwaukee, so they think they know exactly what he brings. If I'm finding it right, his career BABIP is .291 and his Seattle BABIP is .235.

Robles was the key for Wash, not French

Regardless of what Z said or didn't say about French, Robles is the key to the deal. You say nice things about French to keep him in a positive frame of mind, see what he can give you in your 4-way race for the #5 slot in the rotation, and see what you can get out of him if he comes through. You then inflate his value with a good ERA in a big park with terrific defense behind him and rotate him out for something else you need (like hitting) to a team that needs a starter at the break.

Meanwhile, Robles is the best starting pitcher prospect you have in your minor leagues.
Tillman, age 19, 2nd year as a pro in a real league:
Wisconsin (A): 8.5 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.33 WHIP
High Desert (A+): 9.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.51 WHIP

Robles, age 20, 2nd year as a pro in a real league:
West Michigan (A): 7.2 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 1.28 WHIP
Lakeland (A+): 8.7 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.6 B/9, 10.3 K/9, 1.37 WHIP
High Desert (A+): 6.4 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 5.3 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 1.30 WHIP

Robles is not a soft-tosser, he's a smoke-thrower. He's a lefty, so he will own in our park. He has a good FB and a great curve. If he was 6'4" we'd never have gotten him for a Washburn rental, but Detroit undervalues short pitchers. His LH arsenal is as dangerous as Tillman's is as RHP.

Much like Tillman, Robles will get the chance to prove it at AA. I've only seen a handful of pitches from him, but the M's scout who saw him already made the call on whether that game will hold up - otherwise, you don't take the Tigers deal. You can always find another Luke French.

Fishing the #2 SP out of somebody's farm system for your 3-month rental is the key. I already love him like I loved Soriano - except Rafael had but one weapon. Robles has a pair.

Watch Robles when you want to know what we got for Wash. not French. French is what we took to make it seem like Robles was the throw-in. "What's that? You have a Rembrandt in your garage sale that you are sure is a fake? Lemme see it....oh yeah, definite fake. I'll take it and that old lamp there in the corner. Can I get a discount?"

French is the old lamp.

Robles is the Rembrandt.

Next year in AA should be a fun proof for that.

~G

That's your story G :- )

Zduriencik was insistent, on the radio at the time, that the big thing was that the other trades didn't offer help for right now.
This Detroit deal, saith he, offers us a quality lefthand starter, we control for six (6) years, can help us win immediately today five minutes from now, and that fits in better with what we're trying to do here.
Had minor league upside been the goal, how many Yankee pitchers would have looked at least as good as Robles? ...
.... that said...

It is fun to watch the pre-eminent M's minor league guru

Constantly serving up Grade-A Prospect Alerts on senor Robles.
I'm sure I'll keep rolling my eyes on the Washburn deal, in the midst of all my raves about Capt Jack, and you keep right on holding up the giant Robles head in the stands... when he pulls an Edwin Jackson you get the adopt-O certificate...

Today & Tomorrow

Of course, what a GM says in public should typically be ignored.
I think given the circumstance, if Z doesn't *SAY* that French was a key "we can win today" piece, then trading away Washburn ABSOLUTELY SURRENDERS the 2009 season.
This is where the balancing act of "what you do" vs. "what you say" can become really, really hairy. I've contended that GMs should (and the good ones DO) pay attention to what message their moves send to EVERYONE in the organization. Part of what makes great orgs great is that everyone feels like their part matters. And this is where the FA market can quickly become a landmine. Because FA acquisitions, by their very nature, call into question the competency of existing scouting, talent, and coaches.
This is why I think Bavasi set himself up to fail. He IMMEDIATELY got a pair of big name free agents, then repeatedly signed LONG-TERM FA contracts to plug holes. To plug a hole here or there, fine. But, dipping into that well repeatedly does send a message to every scout, coach and prospect, that they aren't getting the job done. Not exactly a sterling way to build morale.
Most who wanted to trade Washburn had ALREADY given up on 2009. But, the CLUB hadn't. While it made tons of sense to trade the short-timer while you could get something, if you trade him ONLY for prospects, then the ACTION says "2009 is done". If you pick up someone you can SAY can help for 2009, then you can spin the move as a 'gamble' for 2009, perhaps -- but not a surrender. (I'm still convinced that French has pitched with a dead arm most of 2009 ... and wouldn't be shocked if come ST, he appears to be a completely different guy. I also wouldn't be surprised if he fades away into the AAAA pitcher many have already pegged him to be.)
As for Robles vs Washburn? In the back of my mind, this "feels" a lot like Doyle Alexander for Smoltz.

No offense of course

But IMHO the Garcia to Washburn comp is COMPLETELY illigitemate.
In 2004 Freddy Garcia was:

a #1 (not a ACE, but a #1 none the less)
in the prime of career (only 29)
just got done posting a solid run of ERA+'s although had only average/solid years the previous two instead of the spectacular years he had in his first 3
had that year reestablished himself as a #1 (with a 142 ERA+)
Was a power pitcher pitching in a park not suited for him (RH power pitcher (read challenger) in the safe)
In 2009 Jarrod Washburn was:

Mostly regarded as finished as a MLB SP to start the year, and in fact contemplated retirement
Old (34 is NOT the time to be buying high on a post steriods era player)
just got done posting 5 out of 6 years of average to below average ERA+s
Was a solid #4 with the results of a good #2
Was a lefty finesse pitcher pitching in the perfect home park for him
Was getting very lucky and unsustainable results and everyone knew it.
There was no way on God's Green Earth that Washburn had anywhere NEAR the trade value that Freddy had, and I STILL think Jacky Z did better than Bavasi. Maybe it is hindsight tricking me, but I was VERY underwhelmed when the Freddy trade went down and I am still fume when I think all we got for a #1 picther was a light hitting LF (Reed), a raw uncoachable (not a good combo) catching prospect (Olivio, career OPS+ 64) and a light hitting DH (Morse)

It is easy to sit back and say we heard about this rumor for Wash, or what about this raw kid for Wash, but we do NOT know any trade offered OTHER THAN the one that was taken. And personally I would rather have ONE A+ prospect (Robles) than 4 meh C prospects (anything coming from the yankees over hyped system)

So to recap, the comp between Wash and Fred is totally not fair and yet I STILL think that JackZ got a better return than BillB did :)

Hmm

My whitespace went AWOL after the bulleted lists, wierd, makes it much harder to read.

OH well no one will probably read it anyways :)

An interesting take

Now that you mention it, it sounds quite feasible that Zduriencik was trying to put the whip to the horse's backside in the 2009 clubhouse.
He was very insistent that the 2009 trades did not mean cashing the season in, as all the media were lobbying that he do. If his remarks about French were part of that PR campaign, then fine.
Good put.

The Freddy of 2000-2001 was long gone amigo :- )

Your case is lucidly stated, but the staff ace of 2000-2001 was a dim memory by 2004.
Freddy was of course throwing well in 2003-04, but in 2000-2001 he was throwing 93-95 mph with a Fister-like swerve on both his FB and change. His 18-6, 3.05 season in the 116-win year probably did establish him in the league's top 10, albeit briefly.
In both 2002 and 2003, his ERA+'s were below league average, and his W/L's as discouraging. A 12-14, 4.51 record in 2003 was a long ways from 2001, as was his velocity and movement.
The Garcia of 2004 was throwing 89-91, had no overhand curve, no tail on the change, and dinking around with a stupid little 85 mph slider. Predictably, by 2006 he was pretty much done, due to early overuse.
Sabermetric niceties like FIP aside, Garcia's market value to GM's was nowhere near what it had been in 2000-2001. Bavasi was simply lucky that Ozzie Guillen and Freddy Garcia were real tight (Garcia staying at Guillen's house all the time, etc) and that the Sox paid a lot more than anybody else reportedly was willing to.
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The Washburn drama was recent. We all remember that after Halladay was off the table, there were several bigtime contenders who were hot-and-heavy after Wash.
Got to differ on this one. Although you know and I know that Garcia was a better pitcher, his actual market value wasn't.

Is Washburn a MLB pitcher?

Is Washburn a MLB pitcher? Hes been worse than French since the trade.
IMO we've learned nothing about French either than the fact that hes a pinata without his slider.
An offseason of rest and perhaps he comes in '10 with recovered velocity and a better feel for his slider.