Z has given himself a nice set of options, flexing on whether Tui is the everyday 3b in April, whether Hall can hold his own, whether Hannahan can show the patience and doubles power he had in the minors (which makes him a decent utility and platoon middle infield guy, not an everyday 3b), what they think about Lopez, etc. Key is that Hall and Hannahan can share the McLemore role and provide good defense even while we see if they can show anything at the plate.
Tui 3b, Lopez 2b, Hall/Hannahan McLemore role, no trade
Tui 3b, Hall/Hannahan 2b, trade Lopez
Lopez 3b or 2b, Hall/Hannahan 2b or 3b, Tui AAA or part-time/DH until feet wet, trade Lopez once Tui ready
As it stands, they don't have to count on any of the contingencies, but if they pan out, then Lopez becomes available to move for another piece of the puzzle.
One of the things they said was that they were shocked at how Bavasi's roster was such a bad fit for Safeco, and I would guess that they include Lopez in that characterization. In which case I would not be at all surprised to see him moved.
... said Branch Rickey to Joe Garagiola, the week before he traded him. :- )
The man wasn't lyin', right?!
.
Q. Have you given up on Lopez' power?
A. If Jose continued to parallel Carlos Guillen, he would do exactly this:
2009 / 2001 -- Decent hitter (age 25 for both)
2010 / 2002 - Decent hitter
2011 / 2003 - Average-solid hitter, major progress in EYE
2012 / 2004 - Explodes as MVP candidate
In terms of OPS+, Miguel Tejada followed precisely that pattern too -- average-solid hitter through age 27, with the big plateau leap at age 28.
Obviously, it would be naive to write off a blue-chipper's upside while he was still age 25.
.
Q. Do you expect him to blossom soon?
A. While he's in Seattle, I expect him to continue to hit for 105 OPS+'s, because of that annoyingly static swing.
He's going to have to choose to swing the bat more dynamically, and before he does that, he'll need to get his legs under him more. (Guillen and Tejada did that at age 28.)
Alternatively, Wakamatsu & Co. could go to work, convince Jose that he is a star, and work with him on being more ambitious. Wok should go about the business of erasing Jose's earlier coaching that he should hit like a cliche'd second baseman.
That is precisely what Earl Weaver used to do with players like Jose Lopez. As he emphasized in Weaver On Strategy, it's important to talk to the players who are capable of hitting homers, to get to 2-0 and 3-1 "and then look to hit the ball out of the ballpark."
That's what Earl left us with: just identify the guys who are capable, and then encourage those guys to swing from the keister on 2-0 and 3-1. (Of course, the instinct begins to translate to mistakes on, say, 1-0.)
................
Anyway, I'm planning on Jose going for 105 OPS+'s the next two years, being worth about $10M, and then moving to a place like Texas to become a big star.
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Q. What about the Eureka?
A. Jose said that a month ago, he learned to look to go the other way, and then react to inside pitches.
He's slugging .466 the last 30 days, before his HR today, so we'll wait and see. Maybe he'll boost his production to (say) a 120 OPS+ *without* the Earl attitude.
In any case, wouldn't it be great if he could lock in on both ideas?
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Q. You think Capt Jack will keep him?
A. Jose is an absolutely wonderful trade chip -- at $2.5 and $5.0 the next two years, he's affordable for small-market teams. And, he is productive. And, he has tantalizing upside ... right now. You can see how badly a team like KC :- ) would want him.
Zduriencik wants to bring in his own roster. You can see how a second Gutierrez-level blockbuster could be arranged around Jose Lopez. Jose could bring back major -- not minor, major -- young talent.
JLo would be a very cost-effective part of a contender in 2010-11. He might be in Capt Jack's plans ... in the E=MC2 plan, that is.
Hey, the Nationals need a second baseman. You think Capt Jack could find us a Scutaro somewhere if we flipped Jose for Adam Dunn?
Enjoy,
jemanji
Comments
Actually, it's kind of an interesting question: who is more likely to bust out in the near term, Lopez or Hall?
And who is more likely to give you average-solid/no-black-hole lineup patch in the meantime, Lopez or Hall?
What we do know is which one is a Z project and which one isn't.
Carlos Guillen had TB 2002 and recovering from it at 2003.
So if Jose has some similar illness?
Why even consider trading a young, average solid guy whose salary for the next bit is almost certainly classifiable as "bargain"? Well, yeah, if you've got Chase Utley in AAA, you consider it. But, part of the Bavasi legacy is that the MI in the minors was largely gutted because Bavasi committed to YuBet and Lopez *VERY* early.
Okay, I get your enthusiasm for Captain Jack. And yes, there might be a market for Lopez to bring in some solid talent. But, the Putz trade didn't bring in ANY *name* talent. Putz was THE name in that deal. When you trade THE name, you get to ask for a BUNCH of stuff coming back. There will come a day when that is the proper move. That ain't today.
Me? I think Lopez is already climbing on board the Z-train. I think his career high ISO this season is a direct result of the new culture. No, he's not the patient "smart at bat" guy that Z loves so much. But he IS the "hit it hard" guy that fits with the new paradigm. I think the big separation between Z and Bavasi era is that while he may have a preferred player template - I think the current regime attempts to work WITH the talent available, instead of demanding it be molded into a bunch of Ichiro clones.
While I think his upside is Soriano-esque w/o speed, (though Safeco is going to keep his HR output to high 20s, maybe low 30s), like most free-swingers w/o patience, he's likely going to be feast-and-famine. When he's hot, he'll get REAL hot. But, when he's cold, he doesn't add value in working counts, etc. So, he's a frustrating to follow hitter.
(Soriano has more inate power -- but he skews between 2 and 12 HRs per month from hot to cold. And this is almost every season. You see 36 HRs a year, you think 6 HRs a month. But, the free swingers tend to be more hot and cold. 2,12,5,7,3,7 ... that's the kind of HR/month lines you see. Lopez won't have those totals, but likely will have similar patterns:
2008: 2,0,3,3,4,5 was his HR spread
2009: 2,3,4,5,1,? at the moment.
Doesn't really FEEL like a Soriano scatter shot, does it? But, what happens if we look at the DOUBLES per month?
2008: 6,8,6,8,5,8
2009: 3,5,5,11,7,?
Lopez *optimized*, is going to be having erratic HR *AND* 2B swings from month to month. Frustrating to watch, but overall, more productive.
I don't think you can make him WALK more often. But, perhaps you can help him recognize a particular pitch that he should lay off more effectively. I have MUCH greater confidence in the new regime to actually maximize his potential than the previous one. And I'm excited not by the specific adjustment this year ... but by the ATTITUDE adjustment. That leap of, "if I change my approach a litte, I become better", open the door to all kinds of possibilities not available to young kids unwilling (or unable) to listen or take instruction.
He can be a 105 OPS+ hitter pretty easily. I think 115-125 is doable ... 50 doubles, 25-HRs. The talent is there to do it. The question is whether the mind is finally catching up to the talent.
Sandy...I don't see it. If anything, you've proven your own thoughts on Lopez to be completely wrong. 6,8,6,8,5,8 is among the most consistent doubles lines you'll ever see. 3,5,5,11,7 is one hot month but otherwise consistent too. I'm lost as to how you've made any kind of case that Lopez is streaky.
I think Lopez is a clear case of a player where people see what they want to see. I think this plays back to people's response to him in A-ball. Let's break him down into offense and defense.
On the defensive side of the ball, Lopez doesn't look good, but the zone statistics show him to be average. Those pre-disposed to not want to invest in Jose saw the very negative UZR the first two months of the year, saw a trend in declining range, and declared him a first baseman with the glove. But there isn't a trend in Jose's defensive statistics. Based on UZR range, Jose has one bad year (2008), and otherwise is average. A trip to the Hardballtimes and there RZR rates shows Jose being a poor second baseman this year, but slightly better than average last year in the AL. So if you want to use statistics that are widely available, Jose is an average second baseman with the glove.
Now for the bat. Jose has the hands and wrists of hitter. He is consistently in the top forty in the majors for contact rate, swinging at balls both in and out of the zone. While contact is better than not, the type of contact you make is the key.
OPS+ will slightly overrate a player like Jose, because his value comes from slugging not OBP, not significantly mind you but slightly. So I would say Jose has demonstrated he is a slightly below average hitter, with the potential to be better, but I don't see how he can be a lot better without a change in approach or a commitment to conditioning like Raul Ibanez. To be better than league average, Jose is either going to need to have a slugging average pushing 0.500 or sustain an batting average of 0.300+, because he's never going to walk.
To sustain the average, he would benefit greatly from a rigorous workout regime, to revive his infield hit rate (not THAT is a trend see fangraphs). Without a change in approach, I don't see how he can develop into a consistent threat to hit 25 home runs a year, particularly at Safeco. By change in approach I don't mean becoming selective, I mean learning to load-up in the right counts more consistently. I think this is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it occuring.
If I had to guess, the real crux for Jose is why does he swing so early in the count when he can apparently make contact with most everything and therefore should be able to manage being behind in the count? Is he afraid to hit with two strikes and sufficiently benign results occur when he puts the ball in play that pitchers aren't fine with him? Is his fear of two strike counts reasonable? Does he not have the pitch recognition to lay off the splitters in the dirt and the low and away sliders, or does he have an unwarranted fear of not putting the ball in play? Is his approach the best route to maximizing his skills or does he have the ability to minimize the cost of being more selective with the first two pitches of each at bat? Rember, to get more 2-0 and 3-1 counts means more 1-2 and 0-2 counts.
So moving forward, Jose Lopez is a league average player, and I wouldn't be looking to move him, but I would be planning on having other options in place when free agency arrives.
Got interupted earlier, so here are the double results from '06 and '07 for Jose:
2006: 7,3,10,0,5,3
2007: 1,4,7,1,3,1
I'm looking at the extreme months ... 0 to 10 in '06 and 1 to 7 in '07.
Of course, 2009 isn't complete yet. But, when you look at all 4 years, (depending on what happens in September), the 2008 season starts really looking like the outlier. The skew in '09 is from 3 to 11, (with 11 being his career high monthly total).
What I'm getting at here is that because Lopez has only shown "nominal" HR power thus far, it's really easy to view a small change in production as a huge deal. So, I think examining HRs directly can be a little iffy. That's why I went to look at the 2B counts. For his career, he HAD BEEN very erratic, running hot and cold, up and down. In 2008, his hit total monthly skew from best to worst was only 29 to 35. That's TINY.
His hit skews (worst to best) from '06 to '09:
21 to 33
16 to 29
29 to 35
19 to 32
Playing time mucks this up a bit ... but my belief is that his consistency in 2008 was likely a result of the coaching approach ... cut down on Ks ... use that pepper swing ... bat DEFENSIVELY. In some respects, it worked. He DID have his best season to date by OPS (.764), driven mostly by BA. But, I believe that approach utlimately suppresses his power potential.
The new regime isn't as K-phobic, so they've got a new approach for him. So, much of 2009, he's adjusting to what the new regime wants. He was on fire in June and July. In August, to a large degree, he has slumped. But, he slumped DOWN to a : .278/.301/.443/.744 line thus far in August. Yet, he's already got 7 doubles this month, with 10 games to play. He set a career high for doubles in July, and given the number of games left in August, there is a decent chance he will set a NEW career high monthly total for doubles again this month, (though tying his new career high is more likely).
It is my belief that the previous regime "appeared" to succeed, in that Lopez had a very good 2008 season, but that they may have actually been suppressing his actual output. I believe the transition to the new regime is behind him, and that the likely outlook going forward is that Lopez will have better aggregate numbers - but that they will also be more erratic, (as was the case in the years prior to 2008).
Signing Lopez on the cheap, the way he did the young stars in Anaheim?
Or would it be too much teeth-chipping for us to even concede that Bavasi did any one thing right? :- )
Guillen had a long series of injuries that further retarded his development.
One might argue from that logic that if Lopez were to parallel Guillen, that Lopez could be expected to jell sooner than age 28. If he's going to.
One question. It's not a counter, just a question: how do you see Lopez increasing his power, considering the swing he's using?
kgaffney, bringin' it!
Great stuff KG.
This.
Although I think Z might trade Lopez depending on the return.
My spidey sense has me thinking that his change after his return from bereavement is the "natural" progression based on his skill set and talent. It's not about "adding" something new -- it's about "suppressing" some of the negatives of the Bavasi-era mindset.
How do I see him hitting 25 in Safeco? 8 HR in the Safe -- 17 on the road. But, he'll be pounding doubles at home on a regular enough basis to support a slugging above .450.
My crystal ball says (assuming he sticks around) - he'll have bad months where the masses will whine, "see, same old Jose", and good months where the same people will say, "Look, he's finally getting it," ... until the next bad month. Same thing you get with Langerhans, (though a completely different hitting profile).
I think 2008 will be the most singularly consistent season for Lopez for his entire career, but likely not even CLOSE to the career year he has which eventually ends up looking a lot like Hall's. He's been up so long, people forget he's still only 25. That's the age where the "average" brain finishes developing. Assuming that occured while he was out, (for sake of argument), he's had two months to actually work on his game with his "finished" brain.
(Just fyi, my final shot of maturity when I turned my wandering life around and became responsible was at age 27).
What I don't expect is many more .500-something OPS months. I think he'll be inconsistent, but he'll have .660 months and 1080 months. Ultimately, it'll be how he deals with the ups and downs that'll determine his aggregate. The REAL question for me is whether he'll get a maturity "patience growth spurt". No, he's not gonna become Abreu or Dunn ... I'm talking Soriano growth, where he just actually learns "a little" of what he's getting suckered worst on, and lays off ONLY that, (which considering his non-existent walk rate - could mean doubling it from ... Steve Wonder to Mr. McGoo).
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=3903
Just an update on Jose Lopez:
Some interesting stuff regarding infield flies and pulled hits which I absolutely should have included in my calculation earlier.