1
Wasn't this Ted Williams preferred approach? Look to go the other way first and use the bat speed to react to inside pitches and pull it?
Jose Lopez' Epiphany?
I saw someplace, forget where, a commenter quote a national analyst, who had claimed that Jose Lopez has "one of the quickest bats in baseball." This was followed by general derision, hilarity and peanut-shell throwing. :- )
.................
I fell out of my chair in the 6th inning of Wednesday's game. Roman Colon had entered the game, and on his first pitch to Jose Lopez, threw a fastball. This pitch was, according to Brooks, exactly 48 inches high off the ground, and 3 inches inside off the plate.
When a hitter is in his normal batting crouch and swings at an outside pitch, this ball is in serious danger of catching him flush on the jaw.
Might you point out to me someplace where I can see another example of a RH hitter ... other than Vlad Guerrero ... getting his bat on a pitch that is wild high, and well inside?
....................
Jose Lopez hit it down the LEFT field line.
He hit the pitch in the form of a smoking line drive -- because Lopez got ON TOP of that pitch. Let me read that sentence again.
I checked the gun. Colon threw the pitch 96 mph.
......................
When Lopez was 20, I saw some ML scout who said, "You've got to check this kid. He could pull a bullet from a 30-30 rifle."
Pat Gillick, when Felix Hernandez was 16, named Felix untouchable in trade talks, along with Jose Lopez.
When Lopez was 20 years old, he was a #4 hitter in the PCL. The definition of a blue-chip prospect: rips up A+ ball at 20, rips up AA at 21, rips up AAA at 22 ... solid player in the bigs at 23 or 24.
... Lopez' worst problems, since hitting the majors, are (a) that he pulls everything -- because his bat is so fast, and (b) that he grounds everything, zapping his HR's, because his bat is so fast that he's on top of the ball.
.
=== Epiphany Dept. ===
Jim Street, combining a nose for the crucial with a feel for the right quote in Geoff Baker style, delivered the goods in his postgame:
........
+++ [Lopez' sister] passed away in mid-June and Lopez went on the bereavement list for a week. He returned on July 25 with a new attitude and approach.
"When I came back, I decided to hit in the cage every day," Lopez said. "I hit the ball the other way, every swing, and it has worked. Early in the season, they pitched me away and I kept trying to pull the ball.
"Now, I think first of going the other way [to right and right-center] and pull the ball if it's inside."
The results have been impressive.
He was batting .248 with five three-hit games on June 17 and is batting .335 in his past 51 games.++
...........
Exactly! When your bat is faster than a snake's tongue, and your REACTION is to lash the ball down the line anyway .... absolutely! Go up thinking RF, and then adjust to the inside pitch.
Three guesses why other hitters don't try that.
.
=== By The Numbers Dept. ===
- 16 three-hit games this year, most in majors (per Street)
- 4 three-hit games this week (per Street)
- .462 SLG on the year now, not counting Wednesday
- 102 OPS+ now
- .332 / .356 / .540 the last 28 days, not counting Wed
- Hit for a 145 OPS+ in June, 123 in July, and 213 in August
Most of the time when a hitter says "Hey! I figured out this game!," we Shandlerians refer to that as, um, "Noise." Stick to the numbers.
In THIS case? Jose Lopez' hitting strategy might just be the light coming on.
Would it be weird for Jose Lopez to figure the game out, and hit like Miguel Tejada from now on? What has been a little weird, has been that it has taken him 2,500 AB's to do so.
Dr D
Comments
2
I've said it before, and I'll repeat it here, as it directly applies to an oustanding essay ...
Players do NOT get better *because* they get older. They get better because they learn SOMETHING. Every word of the above article supports the likelihood that Lopez has matured, (25 is when this typically happens), and that he LEARNED to leverage his skill set much, much better. This is a fantastic example of going to the plate WITH A PLAN. Doesn't mean he's going up there to walk, (which would be a miserable plan for THIS hitter).
What's scary to me about this knowledge? That this places Lopez' upside at Alfonso Soriano production levels. What people forget about Soriano is they had his age wrong initially. He hit 18-HR and 25-2B as a 25-year-old ROOKIE. Lopez is likely to beat both of those numbers. If the kid truly has Sheffield bat speed? Yes, 40 HRs is really a possibility, even in Safeco.
3
That's a point I'd never realized. Yeah, now that you mention it, Sheffield's in that Juan Gonzalez template...
Only Q on Jose's HR's amigo, and it's not an argumnet, just a Q.. .... he stays on top of the ball so much, is he ever going to raise his F/G ratio?
You see him as, for example, deciding to turn on a pitch and knock it out to LF?
4
When Teddy Ballgame was coaching OTHERS, he would tell them to hit the ball right back at the pitcher ... which is essentially the point you're making. "The pull will take care of itself," he'd say.
Hitting the ball at the pitcher, the margin for error is greatest in both directions, of course. When your timing is messed up, up-the-middle gets back the most simple timing.
Other-way allows the ball deeper in the zone, so yeah.
...................
Ted himself in the box, that's another subject :- ) They never THOUGHT of shifting Junior the way they shifted Ted.
They'd put three guys at the 2B's position, and play the 3B at short, and Ted would try to go to LF and literally could not. "I'm trying!," he'd wail. "I just can't do it!"
It's kind of like Larry Bird going to a TV commercial and being asked to miss a shot, and needing five shots before it doesn't go in. He's so hard-wired that...
5
You've probably read John Benson's "Age 26 With Experience" principle.
#2 yellow sticky on a rotodweeb's monitor, draft day: ML players exactly age 26, who have been in the bigs a while. Most common age for a huge bustout.
#1 yellow sticky is the high-BPV pitchers who've had misleading ERA's, like Ian Snell. :- )
6
Right. That's what I remember. Him telling Boggs to take this approach every time he hit a little slump. Williams couldn't not pull the ball himself.
7
...is that Jose Lopez moved to the third spot in the batting order at precisely the moment he figured out how to hit. Before berievement, he was generally hitting 5th behind the DH or even 6th. After berievement, he hits third. You talk about a manager recognizing talent and execution within one game of the light bulb turning on!
From where I sit, the new-look Mariners, complete with passable MLB shortstop, interesting MLB outfield prospect, and much improved offensive catcher are exactly one power hitting DH (who can bat 4th) away from having a playoff caliber offense if J-Lo is going to continue to hit like Tejada.
8
FB% is up and his IsoP is as good as ever. His BABIP was due for a rebound. I think getting away from GBs is important for Lopez. He isn't Ichiro, his value is in 2Bs and HRs.
Its the power thats really shining this year. 25 Hrs maybe?
9
What's Lopez' FB trend and where is it headed long term?
Do know that he has a lot of road HR's this year... let's see... 11 homers road, projects to 17-18 on the road this year, or 35 in a neutral park.
Just sayin'.
10
Makes you wonder if Wok spotted a Eureka like within a day or two.
All of a sudden, with Rob Johnson, Wilson, and Lopez, the offense has revved up as you and Sandy have been expecting.
11
2006: 1.46 GB/FB (33.2% FB)
2007: 1.22 GB/FB (37.4% FB)
2008: 1.24 GB/FB (35.6% FB)
2009: 0.94 GB?FB (41.4% FB)
12
...we just need Beltre to hit his career norms once he gets his swing back and we need Saunders and Langerhans to OPS .720 or so...very reachable goal. If we could fix DH by getting Dunn, we'd REALLY be in business.
13
His FB% is at 41.4% this year. His HR/FB% is10.3%.
I think the FB% is sustainable, but I don't think the HR/FB% is. Lopez is much better off hitting the ball in the air though.
The average distance of Lopez' HRs this year is 381.7.
IIf Lopez can maintain the high FB% than he'll still hit 15-20 HRs year and may pop 20HRs another year, but this may end up being a career high HR year.
14
Not to make too much of it, but three of the last four games this offense has looked fantastic. As you said, add a DH in the offseason, and the offense and defense is poised for a pennant race. I still think we need one more solid starting pitcher, but things are looking up in large part to the midseason turn arounds, at the plate, of Jose Lopez and Rob Johnson.
Anyone see Jose's road numbers this season .333/.365/.557
Odd that home/road splits have completely flipped from last year.
15
Taro...that's league average...10.3% is actually a shade LOWER than league average. Even accounting for Safeco, you don't think Lopez has league average power????
16
His HRs don't travel very far, and 6 of his Hrs this year barely went out.
I think hes been slightly lucky HR-wise (career 7.2 HR/FB% and the HRs don't travel far), although 15-20 HR power is a safe bet and he could hit 20 HRs again if the FB% stays where its at or improves.
17
Tejada had a very similar young career...at age 25, he was hitting the ball on a line too much...not lofting the ball...The reason Lopez' HRs aren't traveling very far...they're ROPES! He's hitting line drive missiles that squeak over the wall. LOL
As he continues to adjust his game to a more power oriented flyball approach, the HR/Fly will *IMPROVE*...not get worse.
18
Ya, I just don't think its sustainable (line drive just over the wall).
Miguel Tejada has a 13.4 HR/FB% (15% in his prime), Alfonso Soriano has a 15.5% career mark. Their HRs go farther and they aren't handicapped by Safeco.
I don't think Lopez has minus power, just average, it just happens to be a bad match for the park. Lopez's 15-20 HRs mean a lot more than Dustin Pedroia's considering the park.
19
...When Soriano came up...he was all liners too...his HRs were going just over the fence routinely back in 2001/2002. Then he learned to hit with upward leverage.
Tejada used to be a GB/LD topspin hitter just like Lopez...then he learned to get under the ball and lift it. Lopez has better bat speed than either of those hitters...the power potential is, therefore at least as great. I'll bet you anything (within reason) that Lopez' HR/FB is higher in 2010 than it is this year.
20
keep it comin' professor...
21
has indeed seemed less than overwhelming.
Seems every time he hits one, it's pulled straightaway LF and maybe five rows deep.
Not saying that's the gospel truth, but yeah.
22
Nice analysis all. We should bear in mind when thinking about approaches, Safeco, HR distances, and whether or not he'll fit the park, that Lopez's growth curve won't necessarily match a Soriano or Tejada.
Why?
Because neither of those guys had the "make a productive out by going the other way" mantra gut-punching their talent during their development phase.
I don't know where Lopez's ceiling ultimately is, but if there is a candidate to surprise everyone (except us I guess), I wouldn't look too much further than here.
23
Tejada and Soriano had a lot more natural power than Lopez does.
Their HR/FB% are literally twice as high and their HRs average 400ish feet.
Lopez has really good power for a middle infielder, I just don't think hes a 30 HR guy. 20-25 HRs is the upper end for me for Lopez in a really good year (I think he'll sit in 15-20 HRs most years), but he'll get some doubles as well.
24
You don't have HR data for Soriano's first couple of season's Taro...I remember Soriano VERY well as a 25 year old line drive hitter who rarely hit a ball a long way. I remember Tejada as a groundball machine when he came up. HR distance does not just come from raw body strength...it comes from the angle the ball leaves the bat and the speed of the bat. When Lopez starts to elevate the ball, it's going to go a lot further. Bank it.
25
Maybe, but I don't think its a significant difference.
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_3183&type=hitter
This year Lopez's HRs are traveling 381.7 feet (which is a career high), and his last 5 HRs have actually been shorter.
Lopez's average HR distance over the past few years is 378 feet.
26
Who's argument does that support again?
27
also said that his approach was always "look for a pitch away to take up the middle or to right, and *REACT* to anything inside of that with my hands.
I think when you can generate that kind of batspeed, it's a perfectly valid approach.
28
Its a difference of 3 feet, its not significant. 'Sides Lopez has had a 40+FB% before and and averaged 378 feet.
He doesn't have anything close to Alfonso Soriano type power and even the prime-Tejada (whos a step down from Soriano) had nearly double the HR/FB%. Still he makes better contact than BOTH of them, so you can expect a healthy amount of singles+doubles as well.
I'm just saying that 30 HRs in Safeco is really, really unlikely. That doesn't mean his bat isn't plus at 2B. Hes a very good bat for his position. 20 Hrs is nothing to sneeze at, and I think he'll do it again a season or two in his career.
29
A misterjonez sighting!
What have you been up to man?
Any picks for UFC 101?
30
Taro brings up a valid point of discussion ... does Lopez REALLY have Soriano-esque power? Taro says no. And if true, he's correct that Lopez will top out as a 25-HR guy -- and 2009 could well just be a career year.
HOWEVER, I went back to look at the MINOR LEAGUE numbers. I think the minors can often be illuminating for foundation abilities (like power). Against easier competition, "sometimes", you get a better view of "inate" power. Of course, if you can't catch up to an MLB fastball that inate power can vanish quickly, (see one Wlad B.).
That said - Soriano didn't spend much time in the minors. 360 ABs in AA, and another 530 in AAA. In AA, at age 23, Soriano hit 15-HR and 20-2B in 361 ABs. He posted a .501 slugging, (.196 ISO). His first 82 ABs in AAA were dreadful, (.566 OPS), so just looking at the 459 ABs he had at age 24: 12-HR; 32-2B; .464 slugging (.174 ISO).
At age 25, with the Yankees he posted a .432 slugging and .164 ISO as a rookie. His power didn't actually BLOSSOM until age 26, (2nd MLB season), .547 with a .247 ISO.
Lopez, at age 18, had a .464 slugging (.140 ISO). 19, AA, .403 (.145). But, at age 20, in AAA, he showed a .505 (.210). He split time in 2005 (age 21), and showed a .505 (.186) in AAA.
Then, he moved to the majors permanently at age 21. Since then, he's posted an aggregate .407 slugging (.135 ISO). THIS season, he's got a .459 (.181) at the moment. The 2009 major league power production is perfectly in line with his AAA power production from age 20 and 21.
So, Taro does have a legit point. That Soriano's *CURRENT* power is beyond anything Lopez has ever shown. Soriano has been posting 230+ ISOs since he turned 26. BUT, Soriano *NEVER* showed the 230 ISO prior to turning 26. Conclusion? Soriano is not a bad comp for Soriano at all in terms of lack of patience and "inate" power, (thru age 25). However, Lopez doesn't fan NEARLY as much as Soriano, (roughly half as often). Just because there is a reasonable comp thru 25 does NOT guarantee Lopez will take the same quantum power leap that Soriano did. But, it IS important to understand that Soriano, at age 26, DID take a quantum leap in power.
When I mentioned Soriano, I did note this is the "upside" projection for Lopez. I see nothing in Soriano's historical line to dismiss that as a valid upside. Is it the most likely result? Probably not. But, Lopez contact skill is closer to Vlad's than Soriano's, (but his eye isn't nearly as good). To become a 40-HR guy, it is likely that Lopez will HAVE to fan more than 100 times a season. Me? I'd set the odds of a 25-HR guy on Lopez as high as 95%. I'd set the odds on him being a 30-HR guy at 60/40. I'd probably set the odds of him becoming a 40-HR guy at about 25%. His eye isn't good. His park isn't favorable. But, I believe his production was likely suppressed by the instruction under the Bavasi regime, where Ks were the greatest evil a hitter could do. Unless you're Pujols or Bonds, you *HAVE* to strikeout to get HRs. He keeps his Ks under 70, the 40-HR plateau is going to be hard to reach. But, I believe if his Ks go UP, and concentration on hitting the ball hard (in any direction) sinks in, it's not impossible.
31
Sandy...good analysis of the minor league data...as always top notch 30,000 foot view stuff...but I think you're missing the crucial part of the analysis that suggests why Lopez has more power than Taro believes.
WHY did Soriano take a quantum leap forward in power? Well looking at his major league batting lines, his XBH% didn't change all that much...the thing that appears to have changed most dramatically for Soriano was simply that doubles turned into homers. After his age 26 season, he also slid further and further into being an extreme flyball hitter, which helped keep his ISOP up even as his LD% and XBH% started to slide a bit (more flyballs = more XBH that turn into HRs with his natural bat speed).
I don't think Lopez is going to be a perennial 40 HR superstar, but I think Taro is flat missing the main reason Lopez hasn't hit for power in the major leagues (the groundball rate) and ignoring the obvious power skills he showed in the minors. He doesn't have average power...he has significantly better than average power and the HR distances he's laser focused on will improve as his topspin starts to get replaced by backspin. No one with his blistering quick bat can possibly fail to be at least league average in HR/Fly.
32
Lopez's shot of hitting 40 HRs are essentially zero unless he gets advice from Brett Boone on PEDs. He just doesn't have that kind of raw power. Its a numbers issue, but its also a scouting issue. When Lopez 'gets all of it', his HRs don't travel like Sorianos or Dunn's or Fielder's.
I'm not a fan of comparing timelines, considering development curves, and especially since PEDs can have drastic impacts on individual timelines. I'm not saying thats the case with Soriano, but I don't like imperfect comps as a way of predicting a player's future. All guys are individuals and its very hard to find two players who are exactly similar.
Soriano isn't anything remotely comparable to Lopez, Tejada is closer but also a different player type. Lopez doesn't have the raw power in his swing of either.
33
My argument is that the increased FB% will help him in XBHs department, including HRs. My other argument is that his power (HR/Fly) won't be high enough for 30+ HRs in Safeco.
League-average HR/Fly would be a career high for Lopez. If you project that, then he'll come out to 20-25 HRs.
34
The idea grows on me, more and more, of gauging a player's HR potential by (primarily) the distance he hits the ball at his maximum.
JLo doesn't look too good by this criterion, and Taro's feel for the critical factor here is dazzling, BUT
1) Lopez *has already* shown 25-, 27-homer power in a neutral park, and
2) Lopez doesn't weight-shift at all right now. There is room for him to load up more if he chooses to.
35
Jell at the plate, and then start deliberately yanking taters over the wall, as though in Home Run Derby.
It's not unrealistic for a young star to have the game slow down, and intentionally loft his swing on 2-0 meatballs.
Whether JLo will, I dunno. Safeco is a terrible, terrible HR park for him.
36
Lopez could load more, that could also come at the expense of his CT%. I think the 2Bs are a very important part of Lopez's value. I don't see his raw power as special, but the combination of above-average pop + great contact% + flyball rates make him a very nice hitter at 2B.
I think his shot of hitting 30 HRS would increase greatly in park better suited for his swing like Chicago or Philly. In Safeco thats going to be really difficult. I see him more as a 15-25 HR guy here if he maintains his FB%.
37
Why?
The question of the Safeco effect made me wonder ... what has the impact of Safeco been on Lopez to this point? Answer: Career 31-HRs in Safeco, 29-HRs on the road. No effect. Right?
Not so fast. THIS YEAR, the split is 4-home; 11-road;
If we accept that Lopez has a genuine tweak which is turning doubles into HRs, the impact thus far is almost entirely limited to road games. We're talking REAL small sample, of course. But, it certainly supports the contention that Lopez power isn't sufficient to manage the 17-ish home homers he'd need to bust 40.
But a 28-32 HR guy? Yeah, I think he's ALREADY got that much power. He'll likely have to hit the weight room or the "wait" room, (start stalking gophers), to go much further.
38
Is that your phrase? If not, I'm using "Earl's Wait Room" from now on, 'cause he talked to big guys about looking to hit the 2-0, 3-1 pitch out...
Agree that JLo probably NOW could hit 25, 30, 32 homers in a neutral park.
And agree that he may never be able to hit more than 8 or so home 'taters. But he does have a knack for a Johjima-type yank to straightaway left, clearing the fence by five rows or so, so I doubt he'll stop hitting the 6, 8, 10 home taters.
39
but I'm trying to get it turned around. Thus the infrequent presence here :(
As for UFC 101, I'm actually excited to see what Forrest can do against Anderson. Forrest is absolutely huge, and Anderson is smallish/mid for a LHW. Forrest could use outside striking and leg kicks to keep out of Silva's wheelhouse, and if sticks to it (without getting caught like against Rashad) then he's going to make it a verrrrrry interesting fight.
Haven't had time to hype up for anyone else on the card though :(
40
If there's anything we can do to help, drop an e-mail my friend. Or we can talk at 21st century, or whatever.
Best to you amigo.
41
I hear you there man..hopefully things work out for you. :-)
I'm looking forward to the Silva/Griffen fight too.. I think Forrest has a better shot than people give him credit for.
42
But I'm afraid chewing through leather wrapped in tin foil isn't made much easier with an extra set of teeth ;)
Been through worse, will get through this, but I was hoping for a little longer stretch of calm before heading back into the maelstrom, lol. That's how it usually works, I guess.
43
Keep da faith my man.
44
Comments in the comment section of a doug fister article about Jose Lopez. And it is a sentiment that is pretty common around the "smarter" blogs. That Jose Lopez's defensive liability (slightly under average) coupled with his OBP woes outweighs his high contact and occasional power (and seemingly unreal ability to drive in runs which doesn't count, you know cause the game is about OBP not about runs, RBI don't cout dontch ya know), and make him a "hole", that needs to be replaced. At first glance I scoff at this notion, but after looking at the stats it does seem like Jose's paltry .305 OBP (.303 career) is really quite stinky, lower than I was expecting. So my question to the DOV crowd... Is Jose Lopez a mirage? OK power for a 2b and lunky RBI totals masking a hitter who really isn't all that good? Should we try to "sell High" with Jose? Or does Jose have the ability to increase his OBP to respectable levels and become that Miggy Tejada at second that we always dreamed of?
IOW, for all the argument we have had over Jose's power ins't it his patience or lack there of we should be worried about? And if so how worried?