For those amigos who have been too busy calculating the Angels' runs scored, Matt Tuisosopo is sitting on five (5) multi-hit games in a row, with 3 homers and 11 RBI.
He's 11-for-19 in those games and is now listed at 6' 7", 302, the same as Terry Bollea. The Seahawks have threatened holdout Aaron Curry with a local Bo Jackson redux.
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Quick recap for those who became Mariner fans in the last week or two, like Sandy. Or if you missed one or two of the memos along the way...
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1. Tui's dad was a star nose guard for the Chuck Knox Seahawks. His older bro' was an NFL quarterback. Matt himself has Junior-level self-confidence, and for similar reasons.
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2. As a teenager, slid out of the first round of his draft because people thought he was going to go play QB for the Huskies.
In other words, Tui, a 1st-round baseball pick, might have been a better football player than baseball player. In other other words, Tui is a freak of natural talent, even compared to other pro baseball players.
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3. Nabbed 3rd round, given 1st round money by the M's. Roger Jongewaard, sometimes accused of being the best player-development man of the 1990's, compared Tuiasosopo to Ken Griffey Jr. and Rickey Henderson with respect to Tui's level of baseball talent.
For some reason, this amazing quote has never gained traction with Mariner fans.
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4. Signed and in his first two weeks, had approximately 912 base hits.
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5. Spent his minors career playing with guys two to four years older than him.
Tui believers have admired his rare and lethal combination of Mike Piazza opposite-field power, along with the football-style willingness to stick his nose into a slider. Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez were other players in the same template.
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6. Continued to not hit, continued to be promoted more quickly than his performances seemed to justify, and continued to show unsinkable confidence.
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7. At age 20 had a AA season with stats hilariously bad (.183/.218/.259 in 200+ AB's). This led some to ask the question, "Has anybody ever been good in the major leagues, who posted stats this bad?" This debate rolled for a few months over the winter.
For us, the verdict was, if you can't hit upper minors pitching yet, you can't hit it yet. .210 vs. .180 vs .110, it's all the same thing. The guy was in over his head for a few months, but hey, as long as he didn't mind....
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8. At age 21, adjusted and started playing fairly well for his level (AA), though not sabermetrically well.
We fans continued to try to use the paradigm of past results (sabermetrics) rather than the paradigm of physical gifts. On this one, they steered us wrong.
A typical fan quote from an Ultra league on Tui: "I have to question 20HR potential with such a low career slugging in the minors. If you want to invest in a ML 3rd baseman, there are better options out there under the radar. Todd Frazier, Reds comes to mind. He is more like Adrian Beltre (post roids) than not like him. "
Scouts insisted that it wasn't what Tui was doing; it was what he was going to do.
Tui, at 21 and 22, remained PERFORMANCE-wise behind the curve as to blue-chip status. Remained TALENT-wise and PHYSICALLY way ahead of the curve as to blue-chip status.
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9. Came up to AAA at age 22 and hit creditably, 280/360/450. Was studiously ignored by fans. Was called up to the Mariners, who had never wavered in their Golden Boy path for him.
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10. At 23, came to spring training under Capt Jack's and Wok's new administration.
"Suddenly" began kicking tail and taking names, hitting .424/.453/.644 in 63 plate appearances.
Zduriencik placed Tui on the major league Opening Day roster. Z and Wok's affection for the lad was palpable.
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11. In May, was scheduled for surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow.
Yes, we know that Tui had actual chips in there, or a doc wouldn't have opened up his arm. But as you Adrian Beltre fans might have noticed over the past three years, the timing of surgeries tend to be rather discretionary. :- )
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12. In mid-July, returned.
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13. August 1 on the dot, Tui started mashing again.
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14. If Matt Tuiasosopo shortly begins having Bret Boone seasons in Safeco -- .300 - 35 - 120 with 110 runs, knocking down the right-center wall, despite 50/120 eye ratios -- D-O-V's surprise coefficient will be 0%.
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Stars & Scrubs calls for the phasing in of cost-effective young talent providing that it is, well, talented.
Hey, we admire Adrian Beltre. Bill James couldn't have said anything nicer than to comp him to Brooks Robinson, bat-wise and glove-wise. The Sox will be needing a 3B, too, and Fenway was made for Adrian. I bet you the Sox have their eye on him.
Wouldn't you love seeing Adrian nab .315 with 38 homers and 128 RBI in Fenway, to go with his Gold Gloves?
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=== Yer Point Bein'? ===
Fans have never gotten Matt Tuiasosopo. The Mariners have never NOT gotten him.
Across three or four administrations, the Seattle powers-that-be have all agreed on this much: when they were ladling out physical gifts, Tui went back for seconds, thirds, and ice cream.
The Mariners didn't even care whether they saw Tui in AAA this year. LOL. It reminds me of the year Chuck Knox drafted Curt Warner -- and then held him out of preseason games, on the basis that "we know what Curt can do." Curt's first reg-season carry was 60 yards down the sideline against the Chiefs. They hit the lights and it was show time.
The May elbow tuneup was Joe Montana-cool. Get the oil changed, detail the interior, make sure all systems are go ... have a good August and begin phasing in the Tui era with the September callups.
Sometimes the suits are awfully good at their jobs.
Cheers,
Dr D
Doc,
How about their latest move: Hannahan as McLemore.
2 innings of major league middle infield play (at 2b), but Z sez "this guy can be our backup SS"
Now he's a lefty bat off the bench with solid OBP potential at all 4 infield positions. That's a lot different from a glove-first 3b with limited power.
Great article, Doc. Outstanding. You're in a Rob Johnsonesque groove the last few weeks.
In pondering the scout versus geek contest, it occured to me that I've seen a number of "scout adored" players struggle early, (compared to their hype). But, I also "think" there is a trend in these guys to show improved production as they go UP in levels.
The sabr-loved prospects tend to destroy low ball, and gradually lose ground as they rise through the system. And this is why sabr-only prospect projection systems are limited. The charts I've seen work under a basic template -- the "expected" result is to slowly lose ground as you rise thru the system. The minors to majors conversion tables I've seen all do basically the same thing -- take the AAA production and multiply it by 0.9x to estimate MLB production. The stats CAN'T take into account scouting reports.
This is where the analyst has to be able to resolve discrepancies between scouting and production. This doesn't mean accept the scouts word OR the production. The trick is to attempt to figure out WHY there is a mismatch, and also come up with suggestions of what might likely happen statistically when a kid DOES get it.
Tui's minor league aggregate is utterly dismiss territory - .271/.359/.402/.761. He also has fanned 530 times in 553 games. The whiff per game guy that is only carrying a .130 ISO isn't going to make ANY SABR prospect watch lists. The 90 points of patience is the only attractive part of the entire line.
But, go look at the age-22 AAA line: .281/.364/.453/.817 -- The 80-90 points of patience is still there, but suddenly we get a .170 ISO. Heck, in A+ ball he had an ISO of 73. In his 100 ABs at Tacoma this season: .250/.342/.450 -- 92 patience and 200 ISO.
I have no idea if Tui will succeed in the majors. NOBODY does. But, there can be statistical tells of a change in a hitter if you look closely. In 2007, at AA, Tui had 14-SF and 14-DPs (446 ABs). He was skying or topping the ball. In 437 ABs the next year, in AAA, he had 4 and 9. Different team, park ... maybe it was just a difference in guys on base. But, his RBI total jumped from 57 to 73, (and his run total went up from 74 to 87). He's scoring more, driving in more, but has a MAJOR plunge in SF and a minor dip in DPs? Looks to me like a guy who if refining his stroke and gaining consistency.
As it stands, his K-rate is going to keep him painted as an unlikely breakthru player, especially since has yet to show any tendency to convert his doubles power into HR power, (yet). But the SCOUTS can typically tell which players have the tools needed to "possibly" hang with the big boys.
I am SO down with the idea of a lefty, "bat-first" utility infielder. Especially when you have everyday DP's.
Amazing that they are open-minded enough to consider that. I don't even see that Hannahan ever played short in the minors.
I don't know whether Hannahan can actually hit, but love the idea!
Onward fearless leaders :- )
++ But, I also "think" there is a trend in these guys to show improved production as they go UP in levels. The sabr-loved prospects tend to destroy low ball, and gradually lose ground as they rise through the system. ++
Zack-a-tack-a-ly.
We fans with math backgrounds but not much baseball background ... we just have to get it through our heads that there is a blue set of goggles and a red set of goggles.
The red set, looks at a player in terms of his sheer physical gifts. Some baseball men can visualize the future outcome, after pitch recognition, like visualizing a Bansai tree.
There's nothing wrong with having a blue set and a red set. Those of us with blue goggles just need to understand how good some people are with that red set.
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And, of course, you HAVE to use the red set, when you're talking about high school players, and people like Tuiasosopo.
It was painful :- ) watching people use the blue set on the 20-year-old Tui. "He's never shown homers yet! How can you expect him to ever hit any?" As he grew from a LB-agile 200 to 210 to 220 to 230.
Good work, Doc & Sandy. I think it is a good bet that both Tui and Saunders will eventually bust out by age 25-26. The tough question for the Ms is whether to fill two key offensive positions with guys who will still be in the "learning curve" stage (Tui just turned 23, Saunders will in November).
I think you can get away with it if you are pretty sure that Lopez and Guti will be providing "next level" offense from defense-oriented positions, but that's no sure thing.
You guys think they'll pencil in both Tui and Saunders as starters in 10?
I think that 2 would be acceptable next year. :- )
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Stars & Scrubs doesn't have any qualms about two, or three, or maybe even four, Scrubs running 90 OPS+ if they are on an upward line.
Question is whether you've got 2-3 guys hitting for 140 OPS+. Add an Adam Dunn and the bottom of your lineup just has to be Jack Wilson-esque (as opposed to Cedeno-esque).
Trust me, this is hours of nerdy almanac-scanning here. :- ) You can have three or four guys with 80-90 OPS+. What you can't have is three or four guys with 60 OPS+, and no stars to go with them...
By sending out Woodward and keeping Hannahan, he is the backup (other than Lopez or Beltre).
Hannahan's reaction: "it's all just the right side of the infield to me ..." (http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090806&content_id...)
... whether they see this as just a very short-term bridge.
If they're thinking perhaps Hannahan will compete for UT in ST next year...
I've always been really high on Tuiasasopo, even after his weak seasons. There is something about the guy's character that makes me feel that hes just going to pan out, and he obviously has the talent to mash.
I think being a football=first player and trying to learning how to hit in the minors has slowed his development a little bit. Bavasi clearly rushed him in that AA stint, but Tui has always made adjustment up the ladder and has finally figured out how to hit.
Hes always had 30 HR pop and above-average batspeed, he just wasn't really dedicated to the sport until he was drafted.
In many ways he compares to a guy like Seth Smith. Smith, Eli Mannings backup QB in college, is another guy with above-average batspeed and 30+ HR power that took a while in the low minors to figure out how to hit. FYI, Smith was one of my trade targets for the Ms.. I'm not sure Colorado understands what they have there yet.
Provided they have baseball-level hand-eye coordination, ARE going to have different, Jeff Conine-type career arcs. That's a great point about targeting them in trade.
Of course, baseball men refer to these types of men, generally, as "5-Tool Players." It's not news to them that sometimes the physical freaks need longer to figure out the pitchers.
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Seth Smith is an interesting name. Hm.
Baseball has been Matt Tui's first love. I remember him carrying around his baseball gear, to and from school everyday season was in. He was a pudgy kid in elementary, but you knew he was a ballplayer, not a football kid.
Ya, and while Smith has a better minor league track record than Tui, consider his time in college when he was a completely mediocre hitter (although he was a two-way player).
Smith was drafted in the 2nd round due to his upside despite horrible results, Tui in the 3rd, both are 1st round talents.. It confuses why Colorado isn't giving Smith the starting job. Somebody might have be able to steal him away from them before the deadline.
Theres a part of me that just wants to trade Beltre and get Tui up here. If Tui's going to have his 500 OPS first stint, I'd rather have it in '09 than '10. We also need to see what Tui and Hannahan can offer.
Nice, what kind of person would you say he is?
...base your projections not on minor league aggragates or most recent highest level production but on the TREND in production along with phenotypic attributes. If you're slowly losing ground, it should be a more negative projection than if you're improving as you you go up.