OOBF FLIP:  If French has an average fastball, does that change the view on him?  If it's even plus, does that change the view on him?

CHOP:  Naturally.  :- )

LOL.   Everything we wrote is based on the premise that French has a minus fastball and a plus curve.

............

OOBF FLIP:   Was it making too much soup off of one oyster -- to use a fave D-O-V phrase -- to go off Fangraph's velo readings for French?

CHOP:  A fair question, of course.

What we were going off, was this:

1.  The game that we saw French against the Mariners, in which he had a clearly minus fastball.

2.  The Fangraphs data, which were based on about 30 innings' (five full starts') work, which documented a minus-MINUS fastball.

3.  The pitch run values, which had French's fastball as minus-minus also.

4.  The fact that nothing in French's minors performance contradicted any of the above.

That's a good bit more than real scouts often have to go on, before they grade a minor leaguer's tools as being plus-or-minus-or-average.

.............

But hey.  A guy steps out there and pitches in a way you didn't expect him to ... well, you can't deny reality.

.

FLIP:  Ya, but did you jump the gun?

CHOP:  We aren't making actual ML trades.  :- )   We are writing baseball chat for our friends.

Part of the fun of D-O-V is us-all kicking around the super-early "advance scout" opinions.   Be D-O-V what it may, we do usually have our POTD's up first - often a few minutes after the first time we see a player.  In view of this, we'd like to think that our archives hold up pretty well over time.  They're sittin' on the site, and at D-O-V, for anybody to scrutinize as they will.

Our quick-reactions are not designed to be MLB (TM) recommendations to Walt Jocketty.  They're baseball chat.

................

But since you ax, that's often what real scouts do, also:  they see a guy once, twice, and they file a report.  Then the GM (or whoever) cross-checks that report against a bunch of other ones.  Everybody's aware that a first reaction has to be checked against other first reactions.

There's no way to see a guy once, or four times, and understand him as well as (say) Matty understands Franklin Gutierrez as of August 2009.  The quick-reactions are fun, but the earlier they are the more tentative they are.

.

FLIP:  *Was* the gun in KC accurate?  Is French's fastball not as bad as feared?

CHOP:  It had French at 90-92, Miguel Batista consistently 97, and I was weeping streams of tears that Brandon Morrow wasn't active.  

Still, French's fastball looked a couple feet quicker than in Seattle.  That could be because of 7 days' rest.

This would certainly explain the estimable Capt Jack's decision, wouldn't it?, if we found out that French has decent stuff after all.

..............

Unfortunately, along with 2 feet on his fastball, French also left his curve ball in the trunk of his car.  The result was three mushy pitches and a Garrett Olson-ish repertoire.

.

FLIP:  Yeah, but 4 runs ain't bad.

CHOP:  This was Kansas City, not the Yankees.  Who you play makes a huge difference.

Still, French threw okay.  Nothing he did Wednesday should get him evicted from his rotation flat tomorrow.

.

FLIP:  Who DOES French compare to IF his fastball is better than you thought?

CHOP:  Well, if he actually throws 90, and combines it with that David Wells hook he showed the M's, well .... you know how Adam Dunn would make two Russell Branyans?   Luke French would then give us two Ryan Rowland-Smiths.  The good version.

If he actually throws 90 without command, and the curve is going to be squishy like in KC, we've got one of those too.  Garrett Olson.

....................

I strongly suspect that the original guess on the toolbox will pretty much stand -- assuming 4 days' rest and assuming an accurate gun. 

.

FLIP:  Did the readings make you more optimistic, though?

CHOP:  Ya you betcha.

Turn the gun off and ignore it, French did have extra length on his FB (as compared to his game against the M's) and we DO have every reason to believe that he has a plus (plus-plus?) curve.

.....................

Will cheerfully concede you this:  it's been a loooooooooong time since that kind of dissonance, watching a young player join the M's.  I hardly recognized French from the guy who pitched against the M's.

Threw harder, didn't have a feel for the spinner, just generally looked like a guy who hadn't pitched in a while.

......................

Anyway, I'm inclined to wait and see whether maybe his FB *can* keep hitters honest, and if so, then Taro might win another one from Dr. D.

But don't hold your breath :- ),

Jeff