Seattle Sports Insider

Pepper, July 19

Posted by

7/18/09

=== AL / NL Gap ===

Taro links us up to an article that correlates the gap between the AL and NL to that of a 93-69 season.

The author, at Driveline Mechanics, doesn't have a lot of moving parts in the machinery of his thinking, and so provides some very sound logic. He just adds up the runs scored by the AL (6,300+) and by the NL (5,400+), over the 600-odd games played the last 5 years, and then applies James' Pythagorean Theorem* to estimate "deserved" wins and losses.

The "deserved" wins are 93 per 162 games, whereas the actual wins were 92 per 162. Another little piece of evidence confirming James' theory, by the way.

Mariners fans are more familiar with this than anybody, since IIRC the Mariners do far better against NL teams than against AL teams.

..................

Many studies have been done on this. Among the most interesting studies was Mitchel Litchmann's. He demonstrated that, for some reason, good NL players migrate to the AL more often than the reverse.

We've also seen, IIRC, that AL payrolls are higher.

I also suspect that having the DH hurts the National League. Would it help the CFL catch up to the NFL if they forced their offensive linemen to kick field goals, and their linebackers to stay on the field for three downs, like the NFL did in 1950?

Anyway, Japan may be closer to the NL than the NL is to the AL.

=== Gutierrez Again ===

Another 400+ bomb on Saturday -- to right-center field.

This was not the first time. Gutierrez has been wearing out the RCF fence with missiles into the gap, and he has hit at least two long home runs to the right side recently.

Now, amigos, when you start talking about players who can go 10 rows deep the OTHER way ... well, Dr. D is partial to that type of hitter. I was excited about Matt Tuiasosopo in high school because of that. Where am I watching Franklin Gutierrez do it in the American League?

Gut, as you know, has a very torque-y swing, whippy arms, a very quiet head down on the ball. But now he has begun taking advantage of that plus-plus raw power by letting the ball get deep in the strike zone and THEN going yard.

..................

When you can hit the ball hard to RF, you are gaining 2 feet of length on the pitch and you slowing a 92-mph fastball down to 89 mph.

But that's not all! You are also staying "loaded" for hanging sliders. A hitter who is "cheating" out in front cannot plaster a high breaking pitch. But a hitter who is letting the ball get deep into the strike zone is also staying wound up for offspeed pitches.

Mike Piazza is the prototype, and he was simply unstoppable. IN SAFECO, Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez partied hearty -- the ball carries fine to RF and RCF in Seattle.

There is no kind of hitter I like as well as the RH hitter who takes the ball out of the catcher's mitt over the RF wall. There is no way to pitch that guy. You can't foul up his timing.

...................

Tui, Piazza, Edgar, Boone -- they were all fearless enough to stick their noses in there, and that's the key element to a strong RH hitter going deep the other way. F-Gut also has the super-quiet head necessary to stay down on the ball to RF.

Forget what I wrote before. :- ) What I'm writing now is, this kid is getting to be really EXCITING as a hitter.

Every ball he takes hard to right-center is sitting me up in my chair farther and farther. I don't know how much F-Gut will stay with his weight-and-wait game, but right now it's the most interesting thing to watch in a Mariner broadcast. If Franklin will zero in on that right-center power, he could turn out to be special.

And Saturday, that dinger won the ball game, right?

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

Remember three years ago?

Hey Doc...remember three years ago when I was calling the NL AAAA and you were barking at me not ot make light of a major league like that? How do you feel now?
As for Gutierrez, he really needs to not be hitting 5th. It's blinkin' stupid to waste his bat that low in the order. I'd be hitting him 2nd between Ichiro and Branyan and hitting Griffey down there in 5th. But perhaps that's jsut me. :)
Guti is getting increasingly exciting the longer he keeps his hitting going. This could be an MVP candidate we're looking at here. Can you see this guy with his +15 or better defense in CF hitting 35 bombs?

You HalLUCinatin' Simon

I never said that.
But if I did, I was wrong and you were right. :- )

Oh yes you did...LOL

I remember very vividly you saying I shouldn't be quite so bold in my language saying the NL was AAAA when it had good players like Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, etc. This came up in a conversation about the Mariners going after Alfonso Soriano...I suggested, basically, that his up-year in DC was the result of the change from the AL to the NL. You didn't seem to agree.

Oh OK

If you meant that the NL was literally AAAA, then I'm sure I objected, counselor.
As it happens, I spend a fair amount of time in a nearby PCL ballpark. None of the visiting teams have Chipper Jones and Javier Vazquez.
Now, if you had said JAPAN was only AAAA, I might (or might not) have refrained from throwing a base to express my appreciation. :- )
.................
The PCL is comprised of 70-80% fringe major leaguers (and some future good major leaguers), but the problemo is that even the 2003 Tiggers had 100% fringe major leaguers plus several currently-good major leaguers...

How do you define AAAA?

To me, the reason the NL is weak right now is not just a lack of top talent...they have some guys in the NL who could come over here and still be great (see: Miguel Cabrera)...it's consistency of top quality competition. The reason the AL spanks the NL every year in the All-star game is that the AL has more depth of great players, not that the NL has no great players. But the reason the AL beats the NL in interleague is IMHO that the NL has more really bad major leaguers on its' collective roster. The AL wins by feasting on any point of weakness...usually NL bullpens and the back of NL rotations suffer horrible poundings.
To me, the main difference between the most competitive league and the next league down is not talent but consistency. There's lots of talent in AAA...but there are more bad players there and more players who just lack the ability to be at their best on a consistent basis. That is precisely the NL's problem right now too.
So how are they NOT AAAA?

Astute...

Because I agree with the title of your reply: we will quickly get into *semantics* when arguing whether "AAAA" is a fair description of the NL.
In this case it would be better to use specifics rather than judgments, probably.
The fact that seven AL teams would go 93-69 each, and seven NL teams 69-93 each, if we had a combined league -- that speaks to one whale of a difference in quality right now.
The National League cannot really claim that it is on a par with the AL any more. That's shame enough, whether or not we decide to relegate them. :- )

It might be interesting also...

To take opinions as to how the following teams would do in a combined league:
1. AL 93-69
2. NL 69-93
3. Average Japanese team?
4. Average PCL team?
5. UW Husky women?
Maybe you should do a post Matty. :- )

In chess...

...the drop-off between "levels" of play results in a .667 W% for the guy in the higher class. I think if you stuck the average PCL team in a game against average big leaguers, that's about what you'd get.
So if we had a combined league, we'd have:
14 teams in level 1
16 teams in level 2
1 team a little below level 2
The 81-81 AL team would win 50% of the time against the 13 other AL clubs, 57% of the time against the 16 NL clubs, and 67% of the time against the PCL team. If the schedule was balanced, the AL club would go 88-74.
The PCL team would win 33% of the time against the AL teams and through use of the odds ratio method we estimate that they'd win .33 * (.57/.43) or 44% of the time against the NL clubs for a total record of 63-99. The NL clubs would go about 70-92 or 69-93.

To ask the question why?

First, I must admit that each time I hear another argument denegrating the NL, it makes me a little angrier than the previous time. In all honesty, the interleague record is undeniable. So, mostly I just bit my lip. But, here's the thing. While the evidence is hard to deny - I am severely disappointed in the (reluctance - inability - laziness), of the people so willing to deride the NL to actually offer any EXPLANATION for what might be the root causes of the problem. I suspect the answer here is that it is simply easier to sit back and gloat than attempt to uncover data that might enlighten rather than simply pander.
So, since nobody else is - I decided to take a look.
It's been noted that "good players" seem to move more to the AL than to the NL. Well, if they are FAs, this should impact salary. So, what are the league average salaries?
2008 - AL = $96,834,478
2008 - NL = $83,074,624
Well, spending $13 million more per team is definitely an interesting find. The more interesting find was that the AL spend $25 million more in RAW dollars, despite having two fewer teams. Note: Only 4 teams have paid Luxury tax as of 2009: all 4 are AL teams.
Interleague play started in 1997, and the NL won 117-97. The records from '97 - '04 were pretty much even. Both leagues won 4 of those 8 years. In 2004, the AL edge was 126-125. So, yes, the past 5 years the AL has had a major edge. 136-116; 154-98 ('06 remains the most lop-sided season); 137-115; 149-103; 137-114.
But, something that came in almost simultaneous to interleague play was the last MLB expansion. Since 1998, the NL has had 16 teams, the AL 14.
My conclusions:
1) The AL does have more total talent PER TEAM than the NL.
2) The AL has achieved this primarily by buying FAs, leading to a $13 million per team in payroll for the AL.
3) The 14 vs. 16 team leagues is likely a significant disadvantage for the NL, as a smaller percentage of the NL can make the playoffs (and reap those financial rewards).
4) The DH/Pitcher issue "might" be an edge for the AL - but did not seem to be during the first 8 years of interleague play. The disparity in interleague results is more closely associated with the implementation of the luxury tax, (and subsequent willingness of AL teams to pay it - and NL teams to not).
5) Despite the edge in interleague play, the NL and AL have split the last 8 WS even (4 each), even though the AL has begun benefitting from the All-Star game home field edge.
In looking at interleague records since its inception, the top and bottom teams are:
Yankees: 133-95; Twins 132-96; As 128-102; ChiSox 127-101; BoSox 127-102; Mariners 127-103; (Marlins are top NL team @ 120-99)
Pirates: 71-110; Cinci 83-104; DBacks 84-103; Brewers 84-100; Padres 88-121; (Baltimore is worst AL team at 101-128);
The NL appears to have greater parity - Philly, Mets, Atlanta, Marlins all playoff teams during this span, as well as St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee and Houston. In the West all 5 members have been to the playoffs at least once. That is 13 different NL teams in the playoffs since interleague play began. I think the AL has sent 10, (but I might've missed someone).
Ultimately, the salary suggestion is that the NL probably has just as many "top" talents as the AL - but they are simply spread out over more teams.
One item of note -- the TWO (2) worst teams in interleague play in 2009 were Cleveland and Oakland, who both went 5-13. Though this clouds the issue, too. Because there were 4 NL teams that won only 5 games -- but they all went 5-10.
My opinion: Until MLB balances the leagues thru another expansion AND implements some form of hard salary cap, the current imbalance is likely to stay and/or get progressively worse. The NL is going to continue having more sellers than buyers, and the likely long-term projections would suggest that the cost/benefit realities will likely make the problem worse.

Have a take on this guy?

Your comment led me to reassess a draft pick that I had kind of dismissed as a lumbering RH hitter with not much Safeco future (I had visions of the sad, end-game Sexson).
But, here: http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4148223
And, here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UqAmekHWLg
sure enough, he smokes the ball to right-center more than once.
42 walks and 42 xbh (25 HR) in 237 ABs vs. top-notch (SEC) NCAA opposition.
I know you're not so much into the draft/prospect bit, but just curious.

Interesting AAA pitching lines

These miss the one key fact, but they're impressive:
7/7 7.1IP 7H 2ER 0BB 7K
7/12 7.0IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K
7/19 7.0IP 6H 2ER 0BB 9K
Key fact I haven't seen: is he back to hitting the low 90s?
Those are the last three Tacoma starts for one Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Why would say we haven't offered explanations?

The first thing you did was to replicate the existing research (yes...existing research) on payroll inequities. We have indeed run those numbers. If you take the Yankees and Red Sox out of the per-team payroll calculation, the AL and NL are nearly equal. The problem is...the Yankees and Red Sox concentrate so many top talents that they force the rest of the AL to up their games and acquire less expensive free agents who can provide nearly the same level of production if they want to compete in the post-season. The AL teams have to work harder because they are fighting the two juggernauts in baseball.
The interleague imbalances began with the rise of the Red Sox as a second payroll monster and as a world series winner. I don't think that's a mistake or a coincidence.

A class A player

... beats a class B player 75% of the time, but yeah. :- )

Found the answer

At Lookout Landing:
"Turns out RRS was sitting at 88-91 again in his most recent start, that being the dominant game in Las Vegas. He's now back at his standard starting velocity and has racked up 34 strikeouts and six walks in 42.2 innings over his last seven starts."
At 90, Ryan ought to win the Vargas/Olson/RRS triangular. Let's see what he can do in the bigs again.

We will...shortly.

I expect to see RRS called up on the 25th to take that start.

Thanks for the link Spec

We'll try to get a piece up on Poythress shortly.
Build and swing remind of Frank Thomas, who was also not the scouts' kind of player.

Ya

The Ryan-Rowland Smith who first came up to the M's was hitting 92 regularly, and you could hear his curve snap in the air .... 9K's per 9 innings in Erik Bedard two-pitch fashion.
The arm got tired, the stuff got mushy, and it was a different conversation.
But get back to the fresh arm and of course he's the #4 SP. Have seldom seen a pitcher who suffered so much from the loss of the oomph in his arm. Joel Pineiro, maybe.

I can see RRS running through the AL

For a short time anyway, I could see RRS ripping through the league and posting a 7/3/1 TTO line and a 3.50 ERA or something like that.
Morrow's secondary pitches aren't quite there yet...he's working on stuff in AAA and the results were UGLY the first time out...I'm waiting for him to get hot before I start clamoring for his return. Bargas can fillin as the #5 and Olson, whose stuff is well-suited to being a LOOGY - can take a bullpen spot away from Corcoran or replace Batista if/when he gets traded.