Great read, Doc. Lots of truth there. But, also some risk in oversimplification.
Every team has 100+ prospects, divided into nice 25-man chunks. Four or five different sets of 25 guys. And while the question posed to James deserved a pithy response, it is certainly the truth that every club does NOT have the same QUALITY of talent and potential on their farms.
You are quite right that the common fan is typically ignorant, (not necessarily dumb), about prospects for any team but their own. Hence the problem. Fans spend hours looking at THEIR prospects - learning their names, memorizing their stats. In doing so, they never get a sense of what everyone else is doing.
Perhaps the Seattle Farm watcher sees 8 guys he believes are legit major league potentials. Well, that same guy "might" peg 23 guys if he were to use the same methods and reasoning if he scoured the Cleveland farm -- or the Arizona minors -- or even Pittsburgh. But, you CANNOT know if you never look.
But, there are people who look at every club - and assess ALL farms. So, if a club is pegged to have the #1 farm system, and another is 25th -- it is highly likely that this assessment is drastically more accurate than that of the common fan.
I don't know where Seattle ranks on the development power rankings these days. But, I do know the Bedard trade did some serious damage to the depth -- and the failures of Wlad and Clement to generate major league success hasn't helped either.
While what you say has some truth -- taken to the extreme, it means that the Bedard trade didn't cause ANY damage, because, you know - we've had another draft - and the Putz trade. If the Bedard trade didn't hurt the farm, then I would say that NO TRADE could possibly hurt the farm. But, I don't think you, (or anyone who follows Seattle), really believes that.
The good GM has to begin by asking - "How good is our farm, REALLY?"
My feeling - based on experience with the Braves and Mariners is that Seattle's farm is shallow and weak. The fact that so many players gathered from the Putz trade jumped OVER the existing talent supports this position, (and a large chunk of them are already in the majors, and no longer toiling in AAA). So, *THEY* have to be replaced *ALREADY*.
Constantly churning your minors is only guaranteed to do two things -- keep your payroll high, and prevent you from actually developing talent.
One thing that we fans *consistently* do is assume that if a name doesn't look glittery to us, then the player doesn't have much value to other GM's.
To us, if a guy hasn't been on the Baseball America org top-10 for MULTIPLE years, then Theo Epstein and Kevin Towers don't know who they are.
That's just not the case. Who in Seattle had ever heard of Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, or John Halama before Houston used them to acquire Randy Johnson? Carlos Guillen's name hadn't come up a single time anywhere on the internet that I ever found -- but after the fact, we discovered that he was a 5-tool prospect who was considered an impact minor leaguer *only* by people inside baseball.
Had you heard of Maikel Cleto or Mike Carp before the Mets used them to acquire a superstar closer? Be honest, now. Would you have, one year ago, put these names on a chat board as minor leaguers who could be packaged for a superstar?
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A very important national internet writer once asked Bill James disdainfully, "do the Red Sox have ANY prospects right now who could ever make an impact in the major leagues?"
James, working for the Red Sox at the time, replied acidly: "Dozens."
Reflect carefully on that. The internet "expert" evaluated the number Sox' important prospects as 0. The Red Sox' VP evaluated that number as 25-50.
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Alex Liddi is hitting .340/.390/.619. He's 20 years old and has 16 homers in about 40% of a season. With Mario Martinez and Jhamidy de Jesus (not to mention Tuiasosopo), the Mariners have a 3B traffic jam of players whose ceiling is ML regular.
Dennis Raben, to name one player that nobody has talked about, is a #1 draft pick with outstanding K/BB walk skills and high power potential. He hits left-handed. His ceiling is All-Star cleanup hitter. Being an ex-college star, he could be close to the major leagues. Granted, he's got the surgery on cartilege in his knee, so isn't going to be traded this summer. But he illustrates the point: Why is it an absolute that the Mariners keep Jeff Clement and Mike Carp together with Raben?
Tyson Gillies, the CF at High Desert, has a .454 OBP -- on the road.
Joe Dunigan, a big LH first baseman, is a bit old for the league but is slugging .700 vs RH and has a 1.000 OPS vs LEFT hand pitching. Dunigan is catching a lot of attention around baseball this year. Home park or no home park, this kid is raking, home and road, and blasting LHP's for a .600 SLG. He's conjuring images of Ryan Howard.
... did I say these kids would all become stars? C'mon, now. The question was whether the Mariners could trade if they wanted to.
Adam Moore as you know is a catcher very close to the majors who was developed for his extra-class defense -- but who is now showing a much stronger-than-average bat. Do you have projectable power if you're a catcher who stands 6'3", 220?
Last season he hit .320/.400/.500 with an ISO near .200 -- and he's a defensive specialist.
That doesn't even touch on the guys that fans are hot on right now, such as Michael Saunders, Jeff Clement, Greg Halman, Mike Carp, Matt Tuiasosopo and Carlos Triunfel.
How many players can start in Safeco at any one time? Nine. How many Clements, Carps, and Rabens do you need?
Have we mentioned any pitchers yet at all? What do you know about Maikel Cleto, Ezequiel Carrera or Michael Pineda? Never mind Aumont, Fields, Ramirez or, let's say, Brandon Morrow.
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The problem is, you bring up somebody like Joe Dunigan or Dennis Raben or Alex Liddi and fans go, "Hey, we can't give that guy up!" LOL.
Don't trade if you don't want to. :- ) But any team in the major leagues can give up 3 quality prospects and do little more than clear playing time for another hotshot.
There's a draft every year, homies, and only 9 starting jobs in Safeco. And some of them will be filled from the FA market.
The idea is to convert the energy from 175 org playing slots into the top 25 with maximum molecular density. To do that, you've got to trade 3-for-1, 4-for-1, 6-for-1.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Agreed.
The Bedard trade is almost a worst-case scenario in a prospects for star trade, and yet it really itsn't that bad.
When you think of a long term outfield of Ackley-Gutierrez-Ichiro/Saunders-Gutierrez-Ichiro/Saunders-Ackley-Ichiro.. I mean, are we really missing Adam Jones?
If the Ms extend Bedard at a nice price that trade really isn't that bad.
Amidst all the snorting and hand-wringing over the Bedard trade, it could still look like a winner a couple years from now.
Adam Jones has cooled off a bit... I mean he's still raking, but he's no Raul Ibanez... yet. : )
And Tillman has about, what, a 5%? 10%? 20%? chance of being as good as Erik Bedard. Hasn't thrown an inning in the majors, ya know.
Fair assessment, Taro.
Of course, lobbying for a .792 hitter as the critical need for the club, while the .883 hitter in Baltimore "struggles" kind of points to ... yes, the team IS missing Jones. Of course, with Jones, they don't have Bedard, so it's just a completely different dynamic.
But, even your position includes a very important word: *IF* -- If Bedard is extended for reasonable money, THEN it's not a horrible trade. But today - at this moment - Bedard isn't extended. In point of fact, he's on the DL, (the primary fear of many who opposed the trade, and the continuing #1 reason most people raise for why he doesn't deserve a big payday).
Perspective can make almost anything look the way we wish to be. (for me, too). Is it unfair to say that for Bavasi, it was a completely and utterly disasterous trade? I don't think so. Bedard did next to nothing, the season collapsed and the team won 61, and Bavasi was fired, in large part due to the results of that trade. When Bavasi was axed, Bedard wasn't extended, or healthy. If Z does manage to extend him - one could argue that the extension is COMPLETELY Z's deal -- and the extension is effectively an FA signing -- that the Bavasi deal "ended" when Bavasi left.
So, if Bedard walks, but Z signs someone like ... Peavy -- does that make the AJ trade less bad for the club? If all the club gets out of the trade is a compensation pick, (which isn't assured, depending on the innings that Bedard can compile the rest of this season), then it'll go down in the annals of Mariner trades as perhaps the worst of all time.
Of course, your long term lineup ponderings assume that none of the prospects you mention get moved to go after a big bat this year. Ackley is the only one guaranteed not to move, (for 1 year, IIRC).
Doc,
As it happens, I had been doing some updates on some of my favorites, many of whom you mention.
Triunfel: not just out for the year, but Churchill says he may DH all of next year to protect his ankle. Not good.
Saunders, May: 99 AB, 5 HR, 11 BB, 34 H, 1.023 OPS
Saunders, June: 74 AB, 3 HR, 11 BB, 14 H, .639 OPS. Power and patience still showing, despite struggles, which I take as a good sign.
Clement: also struggling in June, and striking out more this year. He may be running out of patience with AAA?
Ackley in Omaha: 8-for-16 in 3 games. Commentators raved. It was noted that most of his 35 strikeouts were on called strikes, and the reason -- he knows the strike zone better than the umps. Orel Hershiser said he would be a Robin Ventura .360-.370 OBP guy (Ventura was also in the booth), but I think that forgets his speed potential. I nominate this comp: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/o'neipa01.shtml
Oh, and don't forget the name of Ackley's once-and-future teammate, 3rd-round pick Kyle Seager: 6-for-14 in Omaha with 2 doubles and a HR. Guess he'll be staying in Ackley's shadow, but the dude hit .393 (2nd to Ackley), had 45 walks (2nd to Ackley), OBP of .487 (you get the picture). Not a ton of power, but bats L and is expected to stick at 2B, so just the kind of guy JZ likes.
Greg Halman: 101 strikeouts in 240 PA. And all those SB last year? Also up in smoke: 4 SB, 3 CS. Yikes. He's now down in Peoria on "rehab" assignment.
Moore: I don't know that he was ever considered a glove-first C, and my understanding is that he has a passed-ball problem that will keep him from being promoted too quickly. Bat looks good, though.
Eziquiel Carrera: tiny -- 5-11, 175 -- lefty OF throw-in from the JJP deal (after F-Gut, after Carp, after Vargas, after Cleto, etc. etc.) has 54 hits and 35 walks in 149 AB at AA. That's a .484 OBP if you're scoring at home. Also 14 SB, but 6 CS. 2 triples. Just turned 22. Exactly the kind of guy JZ would target for his bench.
Cleto, BTW, finally got his visa business worked out and is reporting to A ball, per Churchill.
Speaking of F-Gut: .517 SLG in June (6 xbh in 60 AB, 4 of them HR). The Adam Jones curve and the F-Gut curve are heading toward an intersection if the trends keep up. (Jones had 11 HR on May 26, but only 1 in the last month.)
Josh Fields in June: 6 G, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. Looks like he's finding the groove.
Aumont is now at AA: 2 G, 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. This after 35 K in 33.1 IP in dreaded High Desert (.195 BA against).
Dunigan is interesting, but also 23 and has not shown a ton on the road. Liddi, on the other hand, is an "athlete" who is not yet 21 and still learning (grew up in Italy). Definitely one to follow his progress.
High Desert rotation: hard to judge whether its conditions or not, but the crew is clearly not striking out as many as they did last year in Wisconsin. But Ramirez and Adcock have held their own, and Pineda looked pretty good before going down with an injury.
RRS: just depressing.
But I want to keep flogging my new Tacoma favorite: 6-foot-8 Doug Fister. Apparently he just woke up in 2009 and decided not to walk anyone anymore. 63.1 IP (mostly AAA), 53 K, 5 BB. In four June starts: 18 K, 1 BB.
I'm no Bavasi fan, so my expectations were a bit lowered on that trade. He gave up more than the Mets gave up for Johan Santana, which isn't a big deal I guess if he also didn't give up more than Arizona gave up for Dan Haren (whos was younger, with a FAR better shot at staying healthy, and more arbitration years).
That offseason I was in favor of targetting Dan Haren or throwing the entire system to the Giants for Tim Lincecum. Bedard's injury risk concerned me, but considering Bavasi's overall skill as a GM, I was just happy that he was targetting an impact player. The fact that it was a buyer's market probably saved us from it being a worse trade than it ended up being. Bavasi gave up more that offseason than any GM did for impact starter, but that was expected.
Even so, I'm not feeling the burn as much I thought I would. Jones isn't looking like that great of a defender in CF and I think his OPS is still due for some regression. Guys with 73.8 Contact rates don't hit .300 (and Jone's current BABIP is .354). Heck they usually don't hit .270 unless they've got MASSIVE HR power.
So if you're talking a RH 835ish OPS OFielder in Baltimore with passable defense in CF and a well above-average glove in a corner what does that translate to in Safeco? I could definetly visualize Gabe Gross being more productive or at least equally productive THIS year in Safeco, and long-term you have a bunch of viable options in the OF that are a better fit for the park.
Bedard wasn't my first choice and I'm not suprised that Bavasi overpaid. Still, if the Ms lock him up while the economy is low, I'm not sure thats that bad of a deal.
It gives you a good sense of the market. In an extreme buyer's market this year (even more so then that offseason), I think the BUYING teams are going to come ahead in a lot of these deadline deals. Heck, its already happening with the Nate McLouth trade. You can't tell me you don't absolutely love that trade for the Braves?
Yes, I like the McLouth trade.
The Braves needed to make that trade, because their farm was very deep with pitchers and long-term specs -- but they had NOTHING even remotely close to ready for primetime for the OF that wasn't already up and struggling. And the Braves woes this year can be tracked back mostly to a horribly underachieving outfield.
Part of what makes me twitch at all the pushing from the "big bat" crowd these days is that the majority of the push is for OF help. Okay, Wlad and Endy are weak. But, the INFIELD is the black hole of offensive production this year, (outside of Branyan). Endy at least gave good glove. Meanwhile, the positions most readily stocked in the Mariner farm system at this moment are OFs. You've got Ichiro as a fixture for awhile, FGut just coming into his own. If you trade for a LF *today*, then you've basically cut off your BEST farm prospects for what - 3 years? 5 maybe?
Because the moment you shut your OWN door on the OF prospects, then everyone else KNOWS that they are of less value to you - and they will offer less for them in return.
The best trade daydream I've seen thus far is fishing for Tejada. While I'm not big on Tejada, I'm REALLY down on Yuni, and know that the Mariner farm is devoid of middle infield help during the Obama Administration.
No I agree with that.
I think the Ms biggest short-term needs are SS, LF, maybe 2B (if Beltre gets injured), and in that order.
Gross seems like a very obvious solution to me for LF. Hes not going to cost much at all in prospects, is blocking Joyce at Tampa, and fits a huge need. Its almost driving me crazy that I haven't heard any rumors surrounding him...
SS is going to be harder to figure out, but I wouldn't mind paying a little extra to get that done. It is a very extreme buyer's market right now.
I'm not a huge Tejada fan since I think his early season hitting spree is luck-induced and hes a poor defensive SS. His power is in decline and he currently has a .344 BABIP (.300 career). Hes a .750ish OPS SS with poor D on a hot streak (in Safeco in the AL it could go further down). That IS an upgrade over Yuni, but probably not a huge one.
My preference is someone with D and a little bat thats having a down season like J.J. Hardy (Alcides Escobar is the top SS for the Brewers). I think hes a much better overall player than Tejada, would probably cost less to acquire, and he has a lot more long-term value as well. We could extend a guy like him since hes still young and in his arbitration years. I would give up a prospect like Halman for a guy like that.
Totally agree man. It completely depends on how the Ms deal with the Bedard situation, but that deal isn't a disaster yet.
buy em from other organization with 3for1 4for1 6for1 trades. I would even go further and say put a emphasis on the lifetime box scores when you have a sufficient large sample size(ie 600 SLG doesn't mean much if the AB's are 150).
Another aspect is getting a sense of the value of the waiver wire. I don't know but looking in the stratonerds keeper league I get a sense that their is a ton of value from career minor leaguers who never got called up for various reasons. Players such as jack cust, scott hairston, dallas mcpherson and gomes were literally waiver wire/ cheap trade pickups two seasons ago. All of these guys had minor league resumes that read "yeah I can hit!".
Ditto for relief pitchers. Their are tons of em out their. And seattle already has a respectable starting rotation with a pitchers ballpark.
It's alot cheaper to pickup a player that was ignored by their team then try to develop one in house.