Seattle Sports Insider

Brandon Morrow - Safeco vs Cheney

Posted by

6/18/09

Q. What are the costs to THE SEATTLE MARINERS if they keep Brandon Morrow in Safeco Field?

A. Overall, not much. Morrow isn't replacing Felix Hernandez in the rotation. He's replacing whoever the #5 starter is. I'd rather have Morrow start, right now, than Garrett Olson.

I'm not talking about comparing past results on Olson vs Morrow vs RRS. I'm talking about what I expect from each pitcher going forward. I'd rather have Morrow.

.................

Of course, you have potential pressure on the bullpen. Thus far, "pressure on the bullpen" is a cliche. In practical terms, the Mariners have an outstanding innings-eating rotation and several durable relievers, notably Chris Jakubauskas and Roy Corcoran and Miguel Batista, who aren't getting enough work.

The costs to the Mariners' ballclub -- aren't. It's not an issue. Which is why Wok and Capt Jack have him up here.

Q. What are the costs to BRANDON MORROW if he stays in the big leagues?

A. There's really only one cost: he doesn't have quite as much luxury to "work on pitches" when he's in the big leagues.

At Cheney there is a LITTLE less pressure to get the hitter out. But don't kid yourself that it is okay to go down there and give up 8 runs. It isn't. You give up three home runs and you're out of the ballgame, Cheney or not.

Still and all, if Morrow wants to throw 11 splitfingers in 17 pitches, he can do that in AAA, theoretically. I've never seen it happen, in reality.

Q. What SPECIFICALLY would he work on, at Cheney, that he wouldn't work on in the big leagues?

A. That's exactly the thing. The #1 thing that Brandon Morrow needs to work on, is command of his fastball.

He doesn't need to learn how to spin a curve. He doesn't need to learn how to slide step. He doesn't need to learn to stop tipping pitches. And he doesn't need to learn a new pitch. He needs to spot his FB better, period.

As Mike Blowers correctly observed Thursday, if Brandon Morrow could throw his FB for strikes, then his 85 split and his 89 slider are already plenty good enough. "Everything else would fall into place" as Blow put it -- and as Morrow has demonstrated in the past.

................

So, leaving behind the knee-jerk for a second :- ) and thinking about it: where is the best place for Brandon Morrow to work on command of his fastball? Why would Cheney Stadium be a better place to work on this?

You could work on FB command in bullpens, for that matter. The point is this: a pitcher goes to AAA to work on things if-and-when he has specific radical problems that cannot be solved in the majors.

Q. What is the benefit to THE SEATTLE MARINERS of keeping Morrow in the major leagues?

A. That, at any given moment, Morrow might shake off a little rust, get loose, get an improved feel for his fastball, and start single-handedly winning games for them.

And that, even throwing wild, Morrow can win some games for them. Personally, I believe that Morrow once stretched out will immediately give the Mariners a better chance to win games than either RRS or Garrett Olson would.

Look, Morrow hasn't thrown much this season. Thursday, you could see him starting to get loose, as the velocity went up and he began to hit spots better. It's not unreasonable to think that he needs to "pitch himself in."

.................

Also, if Morrow is at Cheney, they get scouting reports on what Morrow's doing. If he is in the big leagues, they can observe him directly. That's huge.

Q. What is the benefit to BRANDON MORROW of staying in the big leagues?

A. That he has a far better support system.

He's got big-league coaching, big-league video and data, and perhaps most important, big-league catching and umping. How is Adam Moore going to tell Brandon Morrow what checkpoint is off?

Q. What's the Dr's RX?

A. It seems to me that, looked at coolly and objectively, the benefits outweigh the costs here. Morrow's problems are relatively simple and fixable, and he is getting the right help with those problems, and compared to other #5 starters he's not hurting the club.

If and when Morrow gets into a Roy Halladay situation, to where he's completely fouled up mentally, then fine, hit the re-set button. The guys in the dugout do not believe that is the case.

My guess is, that if you let the lad pitch a little, he'll get loose and find his command fairly quickly. We'll see.

Cheers,

Dr D

..................

- kudos to LL for the screen shot.

Comments

Here we agree 100%

His command in start #2 was already significantly better than his command was in start #1. 6 K, 1 BB...had to throw a lot of pitches but mostly because they were getting fouled off a lot (72 pitches, 46 strikes, 26 balls). There's nothing whatsoever wrong with letting Morrow learn on the job...let's face it...RRS and Olson suck monkey chunks and the Mariners aren't going to get into this post-season chase with a top notch #5 starter anyway...they need some bats...the pitching and defense are already there. Let Morrow work...he'll be fine.

"AAA Pressure"

Don't let anyone kid anyone here. Going down to AAA does not remove pressure, it reassigns it. I don't care how much the team may say that there is no pressure going down there to 'refine' things. The fact is there are still good players in AAA that can still hit a fastball and hit your 'work-in-progress' pitches. Don't think for a minute that it wouldn't affect a pitchers' psyche. Don't think for a minute that second thoughts wouldn't happen among the higher-ups if your golden arm goes through growing pains in the minors. The idea that there is less pressure there is a myth, IMO, because your job is still on the line, no matter where you are pitching. Especially so if your pitcher has already had big-league success.
A AAAA pitcher pitching in AAA is pitching under a tremendous amount of personal pressure. Just as a Roy Halladay was when he was being reset. The fact that he came through it as well doesn't mean the pressure wasn't there.

I like the idea of letting

I like the idea of letting Morrow work it out in the bigs for now. Throw strikes man.

General Agreement

Nice analysis, Doc.
I think you're waving away the pressure on the bullpen a little too easily, though. My take?

If you're trying to win THIS YEAR -- the club is probably better off giving Morrow 4-5 starts in the minors. Why? Because he isn't stretched out - so the IMMEDIATE short-term effect has great potential to be significant. In 3 weeks to a month, the costs go down drastically. You also have the case of since he IS rusty, you'd rather he cost the minor league team a game or two should he have one of the 12-batter implosions.

I'm also not nearly as high on the bullpen strength as everyone else. While I believe it can get there - I see Corcoran as an unfortunate filler as we wait Kelley's return. I think Batista, while having an excellent season, is the most likely to wear down, (he's 38), and his current K-rate is EXCESSIVELY high, (has NEVER exceeded 7.0 K/9 for a season). His current K/9 is almost TWO (2) strikeouts above his career average. And NOBODY can carry 3.38-ERAs around for long while maintaining 1.68 WHIPs.
White is another disaster waiting to happen, (identical 4.1 K and BB per 9 figures do NOT project well under any pitching model I know of). The bullpen has been exceptional at preventing HRs - but some of that is from the otherworldly performance in that regard during April. The biggest plus for the pen is addition by subtraction, as Morrow was not particularly effective out of the pen this season.
All that said -- if you're looking at building for the NEXT year, then by all means bring him up, and let him learn on the job. But, if he does implode. If the bullpen does have a collapse from overwork, you've gotta be prepared to accept that this is just part of the price for actually developing players.
Ultimately, my single #1 question is -- what happens when Johjima returns? Because if the club moves Junior into the OF - and Morrow into the rotation -- and suddenly the pitching goes south and the club goes from playing .500 ball to .300 ball, I don't want the blame throwers to be aimed in the wrong direction.
Me? I'd love to see Morrow and Carp playing - and be happy to see Griffey in LF to swing it. But, I also believe that this combination is actually making a stronger push for 2010 than 2009. (Griffey in LF tells the current OF specs on the farm that Wlad's days are numbered). I think these moves would make a lot of fans happy - right up to the moment the losses start piling up. But, I think that's what the club likely needs to continue moving forward.

Sensible as always

But isn't the worst of the 'bullpen pressure' now behind them? Next start Morrow throws 90 and the start after, it's 100.
Still, that's probably the best case against, if you think your bullpen can't absorb the IP.

Have I ever disagreed with this dude?

Just wondering...
You sit in a game at AAA and watch it, and under those circumstances it's hard to imagine that the pitcher doesn't care whether he gets the batter out. Again, you never see those guys throw four curves in a row because they're working on the pitch. You see a normal mix, always. And if the pitcher doesn't get outs, he's out of the game...
And where is Brandon Morrow's career, if he goes down to AAA and gets blasted three games in a row?

Johjma = suck-mine

It's like a land-mine only detonating it causes an explosion of suck. I really hope the Mariners continue to find ways to make Johjima disappear...he's not doing anyone any favors at all.

and...

Players don't get better just playing more games. They get better through effortful study. You don't throw four curves in a row in a game because it doesn't help improve your curveball; if anything, it prevents you from working on relevant in-game strategy.

You throw yer 4, 10, 20 curves on the side, with the pitching coach standing beside you, getting feedback and suggestions. You practice it over and over and over. Then you work on deploying it properly - in a game situation.

Ergo the strong argument that you advance here doc, that Morrow gets big league coaching if he stays up.

If I had my rathers, he would have been sent down for a few starts. But now he's already got a couple, and even if he's as wild as he was in his first start, he's still got a nuclear arsenal that can keep you in games.

Enjoy the thoughts as always

Enjoy the thoughts as always GL.
As everybody probably knows, I'd consider it completely reasonable to send Morrow down. For a few games, or for the year. The Mariners evidently considered this a reasonable course of action too, since they almost did it.
But it is also eminently reasonable to let him learn in the big leagues, as so many young flamethrowers do.

The team may still do that...

The talk is that if and when Ryan Rowland-Smith shows any glimmer of hope that he doesn't suck, he'll get called up and Morrow sent down until after the trade deadline.
I'm OK with that although you might as well post 3 or 4 free losses on the board for the Ms since Rowland-Smith has all the pitching ability right now of a little league coach. But if they feel needs development time, it's not the worst thing in the world.