I ask in the nicest and most honest way possible...you are talking up Bedard's curveball as though it never misses the strike zone, but in his recent bout of walks, his curveball has been ALL OVER THE PLACE. Mostly up and away from righties because he's not finishing it as well as normal. He's walking guys partly because he's getting "hosed" and partly because he isn't commanding his breaking ball as well as he normally does.
None of that is meant to disagree with your basic premise that Bedard is the ace of this staff and should be resigned as soon as possible. All aces go through occasional bouts of inconsistency with their offspeed stuff...and the funny part is...while he's been walking these guys, he's been giving up 2, 2, 1, 1, and 2 earned runs in (on average) 5.1 IP per start. He's not getting deep into games lately because his command is off by his standards, but he's not getting hit either. :)
Q. His swinging strike rate is down.
A. Are his strikeouts?
The modern trend to get more and more hair-fine about HOW a pitcher gets his strikes is very interesting. But if a guy is getting 9K's a game and guys are swinging less, then they're freezing and locking up more. So what?
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Q. You're honestly not worried that he's getting fewer swinging strikes?
A. Watch a ballgame. YOU tell ME what you think of his stuff. He's sicker than ever.
What I mean by that statement is this: Erik Bedard is throwing more vicious pitches than he ever has in his life. No. I'm NOT concerned that he's easier to see now, thanks, though.
I'm not saying that the fine analysts around here don't watch baseball. :- ) Some of them PLAYED it, a lot better than me. But never forget to get your sabermetrics, and your tools scouting, together. A glance at an Erik Bedard game proves that he hasn't lost an inch.
If anything, Bedard's curve is getting better. There are times I rewind a curve six times, just unable to believe my eyes...
Swinging strike rate is down? Okay, I guess that means he doesn't throw tough pitches any more. ;- ) Relax, homies.
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BTW, check fangraphs and the velocities on his FB and CV. Notice how eerily 2009 velocities parallel those of his great 2007 season. He has his fingers on the right laces this year, baby.
BEDARD IS NOT DIFFERENT. THE HITTERS ARE DIFFERENT (they're adjusting). Judging by Bedard's 2.47 ERA, I'd say their adjustments aren't working all that well.
If anything, Bedard's getting in their heads more as time goes on, and they're getting more and more passive. That would be my guess. The Mariners had this happen with Pedro and Mussina over the course of 5 or 6 years. By the time Pedro and Mussina were done with them, the M's hitters wouldn't have swung at an 85 fastball put on a tee. :- )
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Q. What's the argument against re-signing Bedard?
A. Barry Zito was a pitcher VERY similar to Erik Bedard.
Zito was way overused in his early 20's, and the wear and tear on his arm just took the bite off his pitches. The path to mediocrity for Bedard would be his losing the juice in his arm, losing the bite on his curve, and dropping to 86 on the gun.
Bedard didn't throw 230 innings a year from age 21 to 25, however.
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Q. This is neither here nor there, but why the walks lately?
A. Bedard has, for some weird reason, gotten hosed by the umps in about four out of the last six games. I don't know if it's the luck of the draw, or if they don't like his personality, or what. (Probably not the latter, since Bedard's career BB rate is very low.)
But as we discussed in our "GAMER" article a few months ago, Bedard's reaction to adversity is always the same. Shake off the annoyance, get back on the mound, re-focus, and execute the best pitch he possibly can the next time.
The man's a bulldog. He cannot be rattled. I'd like to give him a Game Seven, wouldn't you?
Dr D
Comments
...that Bedard's trouble locating his breaking ball just miiiight have been the warning sign for his inflamed shoulder. :) Why do pitchers sometimes lose command of their breaking pitches? Maybe it HURTS to snap it off right and proper? Maybe?
Just saying.
Ya, I don't think the 7.6 SwS% is too much of a concern since his Called Strike% is also a career high at 20.7% and his O-Swing% is at a career high at 25.1%.
The one concern statistically though along with the SwS% is the Contact rates (which go hand in hand). Bedard's giving up a career high 82% contact. In the strikezone hitters are making contact at a career high rate, although the 89.1% is only a could percentage points off of the career 86.1%.
The big culprit has been contact OUTSIDE of the strikezone. The 64.2% (which is 11.3% higher than career averages). Since batter are swinging more often at this outside pitches this year it makes some sense that they'd make more contact, but this a very high %.
My guess at whats happening here is that Bedard is simply getting batters to swing and make contact at his slower curveball more often. Bedard has two different curveballs: one he throws for strikes and one that he throws a little harder to get swings-and-misses out of the zone. I think its likely that Bedard is throwing the former more than the latter this year which is leading to slightly more (bad) contact.
From '04-'06 Bedard averaged over 78mph on his curveball. In 2007 it went down to 77.5 and hes lived in that range since then.
Whats likely happening here is that Bedard is throwing his slower curveball more often for strikes. In 2007 this (among other adjustments) lead to a career year, and what we're likely seeing here is that the batters are guessing right more often and making contact with that pitch (but not doing much with it).
Another part of the reason may be because hes throwing his cutter and changeup less than any year in his career. Combined hes thrown those pitches 3.9% of the time versus 9.8% career. Hes turned into an extreme two-pitch pitcher (which isn't really a bad thing).
Bedard changed the way he pitches in 2007 which has continued into 2009. While Bedard was likely just on the best run of his career that year, batters have also probably adapted to his pitching style.
My prediction is that the SwS% rebounds to around 8.5-9% while the Called Strike% goes down a bit and Bedard Ks 8.5 a game as he always does. 2007 isn't going to happen again, and while there are health concerns hes still an excellent starter.
My considered opinion is that it is a simple matter of Bedard getting hosed on the calls the last couple weeks, as Bill Kreuger also has opined a couple of times.
I notice that Bedard's curve velocity is precisely what it was in 2007, and I notice that the pitch breaks 18 feet every time he throws it.
Trouble snapping it off? :- ) Honestly, the thing is that the umpires are having trouble calling an Aussie boomerang pitch.
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Now, on the other hand, it could be the case that throwing such hellaciously tight-spin curves is irritating his shoulder, for similar reasons to Felix' pronator teres issues a few years ago.
I've seen Bedard missing up and away with his curve a LOT, Doc...he's also not getting close calls with it either...but I'm seeming a lot of those curves either nipping the high outside corner to righties or missing well outside. Especially in his last couple of starts before the shoulder ache.