You knew it was coming :- )

And, you can infer from my timing (POTD long after everybody and his brother has already written up Jaka) that this isn't my type of pitcher.  Hey, until Tuesday, the guy was running a lousy K/BB this March, even.  I'm hardly biased in favor of the guy.

Full disclosure dept:  It isn't often that I read the Seattle cyber-sphere in order to broaden my mind on a player.  By "not often" we mean, this was the first time.  Would much rather consult Shandler, scout.com, minorleaguesplits.com and my local aiki shaman.  Top it off with anything from James, preferably pre-1988, and you have "Shtick."  Keeps it fresher that way.

But in this case, we hadn't seen Jaka at Tacoma, and the guy is out of an indy league just a little while ago, so a little consensus fact-finding wouldn't hurt me none... or would it?

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=== Just the Fax, Ma'am ===

Consensus:  Jaka is a mix-the-pitches guy, with a reverse platoon split due to an effective changeup.

Consensus:  Jaka has no upside, and so isn't a candidate to replace the David Aardsma high-upside pirate clan that has been steadily climbing over the rails the ship.

I don't know that the Mariners HAVE any pitchers with much upside in their camp right now, but that's another subject.  Other good analysts are intrigued by these guys.  I'm mortally terrified.

Wakamatsu:  Jaka is a battler.  This is confirmed by his very high strike % and low BB %.

Stats:  Jaka has good precision (low BB's plus low K's plus a 1.5 GB ratio).

Career Arc:  Jaka is early in his career, with upward mobility.

.........................

If Jaka is a 30/30/30 pitcher with a mediocre fastball, you can compare him not only to Ryan Franklin, but also to Dr. Mike Marshall, to Cha Seung Baek, to Brian Holman and to Chris Bosio and to everybody in between.

Mike Marshall invented the 30/30/30 template, as I think of it, because he had three average pitches (topping at 89 mph) and he made it his conscious strategy to throw each of his pitches in exactly the same ratios.  He wanted his pitch selection to be literally as random and unpredictable as if they were chosen by dice roll.

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=== 120 ERA+ Dept. ===

There are lots of ways that pitchers can become impact pitchers with 30/30/30 mixes and mediocre fastballs:

1.  Excellent deception and unpredictability, combined with a high % of strikes, as Mike Marshall had

2.  Excellent command, as Greg Maddux had (Mad Dog could have had much less command and still won 17)

3.  Excellent change-speed game, as Jorge Campillo has and as Brad Radke had

4.  Excellent toughness and mistake avoidance, as Chris Bosio had

........................

Jakubauskas only took up pitching recently, so there is no reason he can't continue to improve in ANY of the above areas.

Ryan Franklin, BTW, excelled in NONE of the above areas.  He didn't spot pitches; he absolutely grooved them, trusting to the pitch mix (check his HR ratios).  Franklin had some of the worst "command," in the technical sense, I've seen in 30 years.  He didn't even try to locate.  He tried to change speeds, using mostly his overhand curve and slider, but also mixing his split and change.

(I've got to side with Cameron more than with Marc W on this general point, in that the young Franklin's game was completely based on change of speed in the broad sense, though perhaps not on the straight change as such.  In this respect, he does match to Franklin IMHO, in that he's basing his game on using the front and back of the strike zone.)

Jaka's career arc is headed up.  He just got started.  Personally, I'll pay attention to see whether it arcs off into one of the prosperous trajectories.

BABVA,

Dr D