Hey Doc,
I just got done watching the archived game and I came away pretty impressed with Gutierrez AND Mike Wilson. Did you happen to notice what type of pitch Wilson hammered that homerun on? Curveball, the great nemisis of Balentien. I am predicting a breakout year for Wilson right here and now.
It is highly doubtful that Wilson makes the travelling 25, so what that does is make for a very, VERY powerful team down in Tacoma. I'm heading back down to Phoenix later today, but this trip will be more of a family vacation than a scouting trip. I do plan on spending several mornings at the Peoria complex to watch the minor leaguers workout and to catch several M games.
I can't wait for the boys to stroll into Colorado Springs so that I can put the camera eye on them again up here in the thin air.
Lonnie
=== Mike Wilson, Sizzlin' OF ===
Very rare to see a guy with a true football frame, who has legit baseball-fast hands.
Reminds of a young Sammy Sosa, though the swing (very loose and confident, short path to the ball, low hands, long followthrough, weight goes to the ball wherever it is) reminds of Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield, Vlad Guerrero.
Freakish natural strength by the standards of baseball players; the man is legitimately powerful enough to be a "thumper" linebacker in major college football. Yet, as mentioned, he has the snake-tongue hands that you won't find on Lofa Tatupu, and exudes a natural talent in getting to the pitch as well.
Not developing especially *quickly,* as you know. But there are guys (Raul Ibanez, Geronimo Berroa, Brian Jordan, Jeff Conine) who are absolutely nowhere at 27, 28, and then become impact hitters.
Getting a look at Wilson on TV, you can sympathize with the M's for staying with Mike Wilson. It's easy to visualize the breakout.
.
=== Franklin Gutierrez, Sizzlin' OF ===
Studying his pitch reaction as carefully as we could .... we've got to say, Franklin looks like he's more "bat glued to his shoulder" patient, than he is pitch-recognition patient. In other words, some guys on 1-1 are thinking, "if he gives me exactly what I want, I'll rip it; else I'll see a couple more pitches." F-Gut hits me that way.
It's one thing for a guy to average 4.2 pitches an AB, because he sees the pitch breaking outside the zone and holds up .... and when it doesn't spin tightly, he is ready for the non-break and nails it. It's a different thing when the guy doesn't flinch on 0-0, and then on 1-1, also lets a real good pitch go by without flinching. That's deciding ahead of time not to swing.
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That said, Gutierrez does have enough torque in those long arms to scare pitchers. And that, in combination with his patience, makes him a chore for pitchers, and could make him a factor at the plate when it all boils down.
It's amusing the way F-Gut reminds of the young Cammy at the plate as well as on defense. Similar ready position, very poised and relaxed and unhurried, similar torque. I like F-Gut's swing more than Cammy's, though; he changes his level much more fluidly (he sinks and raises his weight to the plane of the ball more quickly).
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I thought he ran better. He's just not Cameron-fast. And that makes me highly dubious about the idea that he's some sort of Richie Ashburn out there.
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That said too :- ) Dr. D has *nothing* against the idea of wanting the great mitt in CF, even if a guy isn't going to hit. That's a totally legit choice for the franchise to make.
I'll also withhold judgment as to whether Gutierrez is better than all the other excellent ML center fielders; that's a high bar. But if the M's feel that he is, that's their call to make, no complaint. Identify the guy you believe in, and commit to him. Don't blame the M's a bit for casting their lot with F-Gut.
I certainly don't agree with the extremist idea that F-Gut/Ichiro RF is preferable to Ichiro CF/Manny (just for example), but do *respect* the decision to go defense in the Safeco outfield.
Having spent an evening pondering F-Gut's movements, I'm encouraged rather than discouraged. He could feasibly turn out to be Mike Cameron. Not that Mike Cameron is the end of the rainbow, but am gingerly sliding my chips over to bet that F-Gut will turn out to be a starting center fielder in the big leagues.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I always remember Cammy looking blindingly fast, but at the same time, I always thought Cameron was also the benefactor literally looking that way. He's built like a sprinter and his movement has an element of deception with regard to physical exertion, whereas Ichiro looks like he's straining to reach his top velocity (though even he makes it look easy).
Doc...I've been saying that about Gutierrez since we traded for him...that he has Cameron's Disease...a deadly condition which prevents a hitter from swinging at close pitches with 2-strikes. That's why his K rate is very high despite obviously having a patient approach. I think we will know that Gutierrez is about to break out when his pitches/PA DROPS...not when it goes up. Because he's got a good enough natural swing and quick enough hands that he could hit .300 with 20 HR power if he would quit striking out looking so much.
Wike Wilson reminds me a lot of Wladimir Balentien. And in case you missed the fine point...I hate Wladimir Balentien. AAAA slugger with little to no chance of being an impact hitter despite natural ability.
Jeff Clement is starting to worry me. I was very high on him breaking out this year before last night...but watching him take ABs was PAINFUL. He still can't hit a breaking ball inside...got tied up on Cha-Cha's luke warm cutter twice for big Ks.
Griffey is done. Old and crappy. Got his bat broken twice by Cha-Seung Baek for cryin' out loud. On 86 mph fastballs inside that he would normally have hammered all the way to Tuscon as a kid.
Carlos Triunfel hits like Yuniesky Betancourt right now. In case you missed it, that's a bad thing. He'd better grow a brain larger than a peanut real quick or he's going to be "just another latin swinger".
I have Beltre pegged for the big year this year and he did nothing to convince me otherwise last night.
Branyan and Sweeney may be one of the most productive platoons in the game this year. Sweeney surprised the heck out of me with his decent batspeed last night...he looks really good up there. And Branyan is obviously seeing the ball well right now.
Rowland-Smith is a #4 starter tops. The fastball is still only 87...that dooms him to a life of mediocrity.
Shawn Kelly is ready. Now. He'll never be better than he is right at this moment...pitching him in AAA is a waste of everyone's time. He should make the club immediately if the Mariners were objective about it. He looks poised, polished, hs better command than anyone (AANNNYONE!!) in the entire Mariner organization, and he misses bats because there's good deception between his 93 mph fastball and his 83 mph change-upy-looking-thing. I don't see him as a closer, but he will have a long Paul Quantrill-like career IMHO.
Josh Fields is also ready now. Just as much as Morrow was, except in his case, he was never going to be a starter so it's not a waste of his time to pitch him in the pen. He's got the unhittable fastball and a show-me off-speed pitch and he can win as a set-up man with nothing else.
Now Phillippe Aumont is NOT ready. You want him starting and he showed a WICKED nasty change-curve with great deception and a fastball with a steep downward plane...good stuff for an ace starter. But he needs to smooth out his mechanics a little because he wasn't landing in the same place twice. Seriously...watch his pitches, watch were his front foot lands.
I am encouraged overall...there's a lot more hitting talent than I thought there'd be.
Ichiro made three great catches in yesterday's Japan/Korea game but you'd never know it watching the game. The ball was hit and I thought "double" and then they cut to the outfield camera and Ichiro was already there gliding into position after covering tremendous ground. That's what good fielders do...they don't have to look fast or make sensational looking diving catches or climb walls...they just glide over 200 feet and catch balls that normal men would be playing off the wall.
@sabrmatt With regard to Ichiro's defense was awesome as usual, but I think Aoki was also equally talented. I'm glad they FINALLY dumped Fukudome out of CF. Wasting Aoki in LF was dumb.
I noticed that too...Aoki seems a lot more fleet of foot out there than Fukudome and he gets better jumps too. That Japanese team has some of the best fielders in the game today...just tremendous how fundamentally sound they are, despite the three errors in last night's game. :)
Johjima still looks pretty inept though...
Agreed on Aoki. I'm glad they finally put him there.
Johjima has actually done a great job game-calling behind the plate. Hes a great catcher for pitchers with command.
taro,
Is it great command that allows him to call good game? Or is it, instead, good COMMUNICATION that is making the difference?
Its helps, but I think its mostly command and probably trust from the pitchers.
Oh great. Sandy is here trying to create an environment of intelligent communication...
May as well go home.
Lonnie
Whats that supposed to mean?
Maybe I should just explain myself better. I think communication important, but not the main issue. You have interpreters and otherwise its just doing your homework, building a gameplan, and calling location and pitch.
I think Johjima's main problems with Seattle in the past as far as game-calling are concerned are:
1) Bad command by Seattle's pitchers and Johjima being unable to adjust his game to that style of pitching (aiming more in the middle and/or emphasizing MORE of a change speed game for example to call an "effectively-wild" game). Joh's style of calling a game is just simply a much better fit for pitchers with good command and/or trick offspeed pitches that don't usually hang (forks,splits,change) since he emphasizes location and tricking the batter with pitch choice.
2) Hostility from the M's pitchers to Johjima's style of game calling. Perhaps the miscommunication is causing this hostility? My view is that its more of a combination of being reluctant with him culturally and stylistically (different way of calling a game).
3) Dr. Naka's theory that when a pitcher shakes off Joh it becomes a "tell" that the next pitch is a fastball. Shows a lack of trust in Joh as a game-caller which isn't shown by team Japan. Perhaps this is also a cultural thing since its usually the responsibility of the PITCHER to call the game in the US, whereas in Japan a great catcher will lead the pitcher.
I think things are getting better though. The pitchers started throwing better to Joh in the 2nd half of last season and hes been around for a while now that the hostility is probably dying off a little. Maybe hes starting to tailor his game to fit the the M's staff. Joh's nemesis, Washburn, even pitched best with Joh behind the plate last year.
Washburn pitched better to Johjima because Johjima insisted on calling 30-40% slurves. Washburn actually has a pretty good slop slurve that he cna use to keep hitters off balance but he hates throwing it. Johjima doesn't let him fall into a pattern fo throwing 90% fastballs and he pitches better. Maybe Washburn will have noticed this and will start to realize that he needs to change as a pitcher if he wants his career to go on after this contract expires.
The errors from the games have been mostly from players that are playing out of position. For instance, Kataoka is actually a 2B with a junk arm playing 3rd and SS.
Japan has probably actually been underperforming with regard to defense. They've used the worst CFer they have in CF (Fukudome), played a fat toad of a 3B in Murata, constantly start Nakajima (which is fine... if they slid him over to 3B) while nailing their best defensive shortstop (Kawasaki) to the bench, and they left the other awesome MIF in Japan (Nishioka). And Iwamura is severely overrated by his tenure with the Rays.
Iwamura is (statistically) an above average defensive second baseman. But I'm guessing there are better middle infielders in Japan. And I agree that he's probably overrated.
"Johjima still looks pretty inept though…"
???
He was the DH of the Korea-Japan Round 2 Championship. It was Abe who committed 2 throwing errors.
I was talking about the bat...not the glove for Johjima.
"I was talking about the bat…not the glove for Johjima."
From your post, the paragraph before “Johjima still looks pretty inept though…”, you talked about defense so I assumed you were talking about the supposed ineptness of Johjma on defense...
Anyhow, I still don't get it.
If Japan wins it all, Johjima has a great chance to be the MVP mainly because of his hitting.
During the game in question (4th game between Korea and Japan), Johjima came out to bat with runners on zero times - 2nd inning he flied out to lead off the inning, 3rd inning he singled with 2 outs and stole second, 5th inning he flied out against a new pitcher, and 8th inning he was pinched hit for.
It seems taro in his immediate reply, also assumed you were talking about Johjima as a catcher.
To steer back to the topic with FGut, I think it is possible he (and others who are assured of their jobs like Junior) is holding back in defense in ST and not giving it all. So like Doc, I will withhold judgment on FGut's CF abilities until seeing at least a couple of regular games with him in CF. So far, albeit small sample, I am impressed with both his defense and offense.
Yes, I should have been more clear that the Johjima comment was a side-comment and not related to the defensive comments in that post. I apologize. I only saw that last game for Johjima. Been watching ST games more than WBC game.s..but Johjima still appeared to be the off-balance free-swinging guy he was last year...looked no different.
And I am not impressed that he will be the MVP for offense against like Chinese Taipei and that ilk. Of course I'm not drawing any firm conclusions based on one game watched a handful of WBC games played...I just don't want a repeat of last year groundball to third bonanza.