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THE MARINER HOF: HEREIN LIES A TALE
You kids probably think that Jamie Moyer threw ERA's of 2.18. He did not. He pitched his game as perfectly as it can possibly be pitched, and THAT one you can believe. He hit the mitt with his 88-MPH fastball as often as any pitcher hit it who ever lived; he had a wipeout David Wells bloop 11-to-5 curve, and he had a fadeaway changeup that is one of the best changeups baseball has ever seen.
He had it all. And he delivered it perfectly, with tremendous braininess and strategy.
But here's the thing. A pitcher of that template, of the Tommy John template, can never dominate the way a Kershaw or Paxton can. Baseball isn't built that way.
Here, look at Moyer's stats: during his prime years with Seattle, 1996-2003, his FIP's were routinely 4.40. His ERA's were 125 because he pulled off ERA's of 3.53 and 3.86 except one year when random fluctuation gave him a 5.49.
His ERA absolutely crushed his FIPs -- in the Kingdome! That's the tribute to his deadfish changeup and his pitchability. "We get better swings against Pedro than against Moyer," moaned Billy Beane. Moyer was one of the first guys that we sabes realized was beating the .300 BABIP; he was .270. ...and we argued about it for five years before allowing it was a Moyer skill.
But, still, during those glory years his ERA+ was 125, not 170. He was a very fine pitcher, but in no sense whatsoever a great one (except for his longevity). He did have one terrific "skill," perhaps -- look at those W-L records from 1996 to 2003. And his career W-L. We figured it was his consistency, his QS -- you crosscheck that if you want.
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MARCO GONZALES
Earlier this spring I thought Marco was having some hot games, in terms of his "clamshell" command. Ball hits the pocket, catcher clamshells the top of the glove down over it.
Today it was totally crazy. I haven't seen command like that since Jamie Moyer. He changed the eye level, he went in and out .... just a long string of 50's on the dart board like Felix Hernandez wishes he EVER had thrown.
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There's also the big 2-plane curve, an excellent comp to Moyer's, and he keeps it down. He'll rip off that crackling curve, outside on the black, and just below the knees.... he's got an after-tell. When he extends out a touch more, to get below the knees, he stands up and hikes his jersey back into position at the shoulders.
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As Matty aptly put it, the change was consistently + today, not ++. Moyer's was always, every game, +++. There is of course hope that Marc-O will develop his change further, back to where he already has shown it, in 2013.
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But then again Marc-O throws a hard slider as a 4th pitch, commanding that too; right away, how many SP's command 4 pitches as rookies?
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And Marc-O throws not 87, but 92-94 MPH if the broadcasters are to be in any way believed.
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These twenty years, across STATS and SportSpot and DOV and SSI and everything in between, have you ever heard Dr. D compare any M's pitcher to Jamie Moyer? But Marc-O's command simply drops your jaw.
It's not in the nature of such pitchers to be unhittable. Marc-O is not going to run an ERA of 2+. But he looks like a plus #3 major league pitcher to ME.
Enjoy,
Dr D
