Seattle Sports Insider

Dexter Fowler, "LF"

... are those the servants' quarters?

Posted by

10/15/16

Moe Dawg had pushed the idea of Fowler to Seattle. In Jeff Sullivan's chat yesterday, one of his crew axed him where he guessed Fowler would be; he tossed out the idea of Texas in CF or Seattle "in a corner."

Here is a mid-August SB Nation article out of Chicago, wondering whether Cubbies fans would prefer an Aroldis Chapman vs Dexter Fowler re-sign. Quite the splash paradigm even to start with, but more amazingly, Cubs fans chose Fowler.

We’ve all heard how good the Cubs are with Fowler in the lineup, and losing him in the offseason would be a big blow to the Cubs offense. Fowler is having a career year in his age-30 season, ranking fifth in the NL in OBP (.397), while having the 4th highest fWAR on the Cubs, recording a 3.2 fWAR. During his tenure with the Cubs, in games in which Fowler scores a run, the Cubs are an incredible 90-32, good for a .738 win percentage.

With Fowler having the best year of his career, paired with a thin free agent class this year, Fowler will likely look for a four year deal, with an AAV of somewhere around $16 million. With a Gold Glove caliber center fielder in Albert Almora Jr. waiting in Iowa, Fowler could prove to be expendable. Almora was solid while he was with the big league club in June and July, batting .265/.291/.422, but was lacking in walks. In Almora’s minor league career, he has an OBP of .325, well short of Fowler’s career OBP of .366.

So Cubbies fans guessed 4/$64 for Dexter Fowler's age 31-34 seasons, coming off the career .400 OBP season.

DR'S DIAGNOSIS

1) Even before Fowler's career year in 2016, he'd racked up runs-per-27-outs figures of ... most recent 2015 first ... 5.3 runs, 5.8 runs, 5.6 runs, 7.1 runs and 5.7 runs back at age 25. Now this year he was back to 7.1 runs, which put him in the Kenny Lofton category of devastating offensive weapons.

1a) He tends to miss thirty games a year, but those are thirty games you give to another player, don't forget.

1b) Fowler's skills are actually very "stable," as Ron Shandler put it. What makes him look "unstable" is the playing time variation. He scores 61 runs one season, 102 the next. But that camoflauges him.

2) If you just joined us, leadoff hitters age well.

3) Fowler's defense in a corner -- for Seattle -- would be mouthwatering.

4) At first blush, this looks like a marquee Big Game Hunt from Seattle's perspective. In the immortal words of Sinjin Smythe, $60M sounds quite reasonable.

5) Lemme read that line again about the Cubs' 90-32 record when Fowler scores a run.

No idea whether DiPoto's in, but any word to that effect will go over fine by me. James once characterized the perfect offense as four great hitters - a leadoff guy, a doubles guy, and two power guys, two right and two left.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

No guarantees on Martin either

Who is only controlled through 2018 if I'm reading it right. So the first 2 years maybe Martin is CF the next 2 maybe Fowler allows you to not chase after a CF on the market. Either way having both for 2 years is a thick slice of what I'd like to see.

In response to Moe's mention of Fowler I said he was my #1 choice if he became available. I said that because I'd already been stewing and searching for weeks. At that point I hadn't mentioned him in awhile but had already decided on him. I had mentioned him in a shout starting out "Even if it's lost I say it's not" (talking about it being a lost season) back in the Sep 18-24 convo and only focused on him more as I continued to compare him to other options. I stopped trying to talk acquisitions when nobody else seemed to want to talk FA until the season was over.

He's still got to become a Free Agent first.

JeDi's kind of player

But then I thought that about Heyward last year. Interesting how different he has been this year. That him and Fowler have faced a lot of same pitchers on the same days (not to say the same pitches) and one has trucked along while the other almost seems suddenly 7 years older.

The timing is different in that there's not nearly as many things needing improved this year. The cost is expected to be much lower, of course, so it's not exactly the same play anyway. A 5 year difference in age will do that.

I get giggly

When I think of a Fowler-Martin-Gamel OF. Not many balls would land softly in that OF, would they?

BTW, MLBTR seems to (reading between the lines) indicate that the Cubs will go with their young guys and not resign Fowler.

I feel the same

I think it's the thing that really sets the Ms and Cubs of this year apart.

On feathers dropping in, the rangy infielders at 2nd and 3rd help cover that zone too. Sometimes at SS and 1b, just not as comfortably. And if it becomes Fowler/ Martin/ O'Neill all the better.

Here here!

If Tank bashes his way into a June taxi ride from Tacoma to Seattle I would giggle even more.

I do think June might be too soon

I'd love for him to be ready then. It's 150Ks in 595 PA in AA that brings pause. It's hard to see that not turning into enough more to seriously reduce his impact in MLB without improvement. He's turning 22 at the end of June, nearly a full season at AAA doesn't seem entirely unwarranted. He's putting up good numbers but not insane enough to justify the jump with striking out 25%.

Let's say he's putting the ball in play much more this spring, walking a bit more and still doing damage. Then I think keeping him down only until June to continue working those improvements makes sense. I can't imagine him looking so improved that it makes perfect sense much sooner. Maybe others can see a certain 40 PA performance that changes that, I just have trouble thinking it wouldn't be too soon.

Probably

Probably too early. Maybe. Sort of.

I'm giggling if he so lays waste to weakling AAA arms that we have to consider the move. That was what I meant. If he's taking the taxi ride, then he's gone all Mike Trout on AAA throwers.

And if that happens, I'm all for moving folks up fast.

That's what it would take

And it's possible. I'd love to see it for us, seems to me we're due. He's got enough tools and hopefully hitting instruction clicks quickly enough. Brosius and Edgar seem to be changing that culture too.

Soft WAR?

Isn't Fowler, though, an example of soft WAR? I am not sure, but I also see the fact that many teams have chosen to not keep him as another possible red flag?? (this is an honest question, as my understanding is that we would be better spent going after hard WAR???) I would hate to get another Figgins?

Hard WAR being?

basically the skills the team doesn't currently lack?

Figgins had some good defensive years at 3rd but was mostly more of a Zobrist type, moving around. Offensively, I get the comparison. The thing with Figgins is it was largely unprecedented for someone like that to produce for years then fall off a cliff at 33. His age 32 season, 1st in Seattle, wasn't horrible or out of line for his career numbers. Looked like a down year, which he had had before. Then *Poof*...Nothing left.

The red flag for Fowler that I see is the defensive metrics in CF. We're not looking for him to play there much. Teams moving on from him in CF with that in mind makes pretty good sense. At a corner his defense should be significantly better. But he won't move all around. He hasn't had down years like Figgins had and would be 2 years younger on the 1st year of the deal.

Even if they are comparable...Should we avoid the next Ackley?

Big difference with Figgins

Fowler has had 25-35%hard hit since he was 23, Figgins 18-32 when acquired with the 32 being only once. Mostly 18-22.

Don't see it

Fowler has OPS+ed 120-ish in three of the past 5 seasons.....the other two were above 100. As a COF glove he would be of the GG variety. He gets on base a ton.

His consistency make him un-Chone-ish.

My 2 cents. Worth half.

Fowl-off

He certainly COULD be a big answer in an M's corner.

The lead-off factor gives them a hedge on Gamel not even beginning the season in Seattle.

But my first choice is Andrew McCutcheon rumored to be on his way out of Pittsburgh after a dismal (or abysmal?) year.

Not so long ago he was an All Star, his contract is affordable (and after this year, he could be coming and get an extension in the process).

You numbers nit pickers might not like what you are finding is his aging hair but his recent quotes don't sound like this guy is ready to quit to me. Could be one of those sy ko logic things of losing all his headlines to Marte and Polanco and Josh Bell (who they could switch back to the outfield).

In 2012 he was a gold glove of. Last year he manager moved him way in, and his numbers suffered.

But, I'm putting hin in a corner at Safeco.

Yeah, he can still put in fill in time in CF.

If he's not willing to do that, I'm forgetting a deal with the Pirates ... where one of the top needs is a shortstop (marte and marte ... consider the value for marketing). So, there's our chief trade chip in any transaction.

This very day an article in THE Pitts baseball daily talked about "2016, Fowler Up, McCutcheon Down".

This makes it a perfect time to grab him in the continuation of the ongoing pirate budget crisis.

zoom

Free Agency

It seems like the Mariners have created an attractive enough situation where they can recruit the free agents that they want without paying a fifty percent markup.

What I like about Dexter Fowler, is that he has been jerked around quite a bit in his hitting career.

Fowler played for the Rockies from 2008-2013, and managed to hit .700 something on his away games every year except 2010.

Fowler moves from moonscape Rockies to humid Houston, and puts up his standard .774 line in a brand new league.

Fowler moves to Chicago, and hits his standard line.

All of this seems to say, Clutch line drive hitter with repeatable, bankable game. Ideal for a big pitcher's park like Safeco. Bid with confidence.

Would love to see a Doc POTD series on Fowler complete with spray charts, heat maps, trends, shtick including but not limited to Aikido, Zen, Moving But Not Moving, F-500, 30,000 foot view, and Konspiracy Korners, and all the trimmings.

Of course most of that needs to be saved until we actually sign the guy, since he is going to play wherever he wants.

BABVA