Where do we go from here?
I mean where is the mean?

15 games into the season do we know anything we didn't already know, batting-wise?

Let's see where we are:

Cano and Cruz:   Big guns, as expected.  Of course, there are large-sized career samples of them being big boppers and the last few months of '15 indicated nothing different.  Neither do the first few weeks of '16, as it turns out.  Both are good enough to carry a team for a while.  We might need that: see below.

Smith:  Beating up RHP for a living since 2009:  .321-.459-.464 this spring.  You know what you'll get with Smith. In the small sample of '16, he has 7 BBs and 6 K's.  His career vR eye has been .6.  C the Z hasn't hurt him at all.  May have helped.  SSS, of course.

Seager:  He's never been a real slow starter until this year.  From '12-15 his Mar/Apr OPS was .704, .880, .791, .727.  It is .533 right now.  Certainly his .146 BABIP is impacting his performance this spring.  That number will improve.  He's K'ing at a career high rate, walking a bit more than normal, too.  He's not seeing more pitches/PA, however.  3.84 in '16 vs. 3.81 over his career.  He's in a slump. Such things happen.  Nothing to worry about here.

Marte:  The worrisome thing about Ketel is that he hasn't had an extra-base hit all year.  He had 19 in 219 AB's in '15, ISO'ing .139.  Not bad for a SS.  This year those numbers are bupkis.  The lack of pop is of potential concern.  He's not going to hammer many taters, but a spray hitter with wheels should luck into a bunch of doubles.  Keep an eye on this.  BTW, there is a legitimate question as to whether Sardinas should be in Tacoma and Taylor up here.  Sardinas has 20 AB's (no BB's) with Seattle. Chris Taylor is OPS'ing 1.094  down on the farm, with 10 XBH's in 13 games.  Just saying.

Lind:  He has 13 K's and 1 BB.  Over the past 3 seasons he walks 60-70 pts, no problem:  not in '16.  And his 2 XBH's in 36 vR PA's is a bit concerning.  Is there a lingering injury here?  I'll bet you dollars to donuts that we see Dae-ho Lee vs. a righty in the next week or so.  Takers?

Aoki:  I checked his Fangraphs page this morning, he's seeing career high numbers of sliders and cutters and a career low of change-ups.  It's early:  Is that noise or a trend?  Stay tuned.  However, 1 BB in 64 PA's for a guy that walks a decent amount is unlikely to be meaningless noise.  Something is afoot.  

Martin:   "I yam what I yam," he says.  BTW, that yam is one that is pretty atrocious vs. LHP, regardless of our high hopes.  1-14 for the year vs. southpaws, you understand.  Oh, in case you didn't notice, his once Gehrig-like BABIP vs. RHP is normalizing.  The key for Martin (and us) is just how must more than "normalizing" he does.  He's a nice thing at 90 OPS.  At 80, not so much.  At 70, gimme Boog or Guillermo Heredia (hitting .353-.429-.472 vs. AA lefties, btw;  Can you say platoon?). The Cuban isn't long for Jackson, I think.   B-R has Martin at -0.1 dWAR, btw. 

Iannetta:  This is exactly the Iannetta we paid for.  He's a tough out because he will take the BB and he has a bit of pop.  Just right, thank you.  40 more games of Zunino mashing might change the equation just a bit.....maybe.  Ianetta and Clevenger are a classic catching duo, except that the RH hitter gets most of the PA's for us.  if Zunino continues to rake, then Clevenger is a guy who is very expendable.

Guti:  Can we please put to rest the idea that he had become a Billy Williams or Hack Wilson?  Guti isn't the Guti of '15 and that was a complete outlier season, a slugging anomoly of massive proportions.  He's clearly better than he's hitting right now (unless he's tweaked again), but don't expect what he did last year, OK.  A tweaked Guti likely gets replaced by Romero.

Lee:  I want to see more of him, especailly if the blue funk continues to settle over Lind.  How easy is this guy to root for?  Can we call him Xombi?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xombi

We have three pretty good lefty bats running in low gear right now.  If we can get 2 of Seager-Aoki-Lind to warm up, which is a pretty darn good bet, then this offense may get fun to watch.

With all of this, your mileage may vary, of course.

Go team.

Comments

1

Characterized by taking every positive number on a player's non-Mariners baseball card, cutting it in half, and then adding fifty or so ground into double plays.

The Blue funk mostly happens to mid tier journeyman free agents, but contagious blue funk can quickly spread to every member of the team.  It is particularly virulent among traded for journeyman players that liked their former team.  The only way to beat the Blue Funk is to quarantine the infected subject, or give him a blow to the head, before he bites any team mates.

If Lind has blue funk, we need to get him out of here.  We have a good season ahead of us.

2

moj,

I was mostly suggesting it is a bat blue funk, not a head one. He responded well to the move from Toronto to Milwaukee, although I suppose he could be a huge Packer fan. Either way, bat or head*, Lee is going to get some vR time if it continues. 

*Recognizing the interconnectedness of the two, of course.

3

While I realize expressing concern over the team RBI leader is questionable... especially one who has so many more RBI's than anyone else, but

Due to last year's first half and several others, I am still concerned about Robbie. Batting under .250, and such a bad BABIP... and a few questionable plays in the field... I would really like to see a big series soon from him.

Or if he walks off 3rd base again, the panic will truly set in. 

4

His OPS is 904, man. His SLG will come down, his BA will go up - I'm not worried about his bat. If he can't field the position, there is always 1B. We know he's going to wind up there some day but I doubt they go there this season. 

5

Yes I am probably more worried than need be... but the Mariners do not have a winning record yet so.

I agree that the SLG will come down.

I certainly hope the Batting average / OBP goes up... but I'm questioning if these numbers will be at or higher than normal.

Regarding Cano's fielding - overall it is better than last year. However, like early last year, Cano has appeared to be caught not ready or unprepared for balls hit virtually right at him. This I find worrisome... and too similar to last year's start for my liking... BUT yeah, an OPS over 900 is just fine. 

6
Anonymous's picture

I wonder if Seager more than some others is struggling to adjust to the new CTZ philosophy.

Marte is most definitely concerning. I still feel like we need to give him all of April and maybe a bit longer to get his legs under him.

Guti, I agree with you. His struggles might be partly due to playing more than last season. He's appeared in 13 out of 15 games. By my calculations of PA's to team games, he should be at 17.5 PAs were last year's ratios used as a guide. But he is at 29 PAs. Dunno if this is truly a factor, I just wonder.

Lind/Aoki OBP woes are alarming. They'd better be a temporary anamoly or this roster construction will crash and burn.

Martin has shown brief flashes of potential but there's no sense that he's about to realize the kind of potential DiPoto seems to have envisioned.

Cano/Cruz will be just fine, thank you, as you suggest, and Smith is flat out a terrific platoon hitter.

Ianneta/Clevinger is a huge upgrade over last year's production at catcher.

Despite his dramatic home run the other day, it is not a given that Lee will be able to sustain the needed MLB production should Lind not rebound. Not saying Lee would fail, just that we don't know what he would do.

Bullpen, nothing else to say but, "Keep up the great work, guys!"

Felix, it will be interesting to see if he irons out the command issues that started plaguing him last year and have hurt him at times again this year. I've gotta believe he will, but it's possible he has reached a less dominant phase of his career. Still VERY good, just not as dominant, ERA in the low to mid 3's rather than in the 2's.

'Kuma, ditto what I said about Felix, except if 'Kuma is a little less effective his ERA's will go to high 3's and low 4's. Like Felix, I hope this is just some early season kinks that need to be ironed out.

Tai-JUAN, thumbs UP, more growth to go but definitely on his way to stardom.

Karns, so far seems to have the "one problem inning" issue. Mostly good, but can falter significantly.

Miley, I almost can't watch him pitch. Scratch that. I simply can't. He gets...hit...hard...every...time. If he gets a DP EVERY SINGLE time he needs it, he can get you a win, but if just once or twice a game he DOESN'T get the DP, he is a box of fireworks set to match.

7

About a month ago, I wrote a post on the top 6 CF'ers in the Mariners farm system.  

I was not sure where to put Heredia, and he has started out well in Jackson / AA ball, but i ended up putting him in the middle.

While it is great to see Heredia doing well though, it should be noted that there are 3 CF'ers in Jackson / AA ball for the Mariners... being Ian Miller, Heredia, and Leon Landry. Their respective numbers so far this year are impressive.

Heredia - in 15 games... .309/.354/.400/.754 in 55 at bats with 2 walks and 10 K's and 0-2 SB's... bats right / throws left

Landry - in 13 games...  .292/.375/.417/.792 in 48 at bats with 5 walks and 7 K's and 1-2 SB's... bats left / throws right

Miller - in 10 games...  .343/.395/.400/.795 in 35 at bats with 2 walks and 2 K's and 5-5 SB's...  bats left / throws right

Not a bad OF...

8

Thanks for this Keith-O.  Good read!

....

I can go with Xombi.  Especially if he's going to get three days off and then crawl out of the coffin for pinch-blast homers?

....

Sweet to see Chris Taylor pick it up.  Still would bet the over on his winding up with a career.  Ain't it funny how much of a following Luis Sardinas had until he went 2-for-12?  :- )  That's what makes these March decisions so tough ... and so irrelevant ...

....

I'd stick to my guns on Leonydas, Moe.  He's about 3-for-his-last-32 and on pace for 200+ strikeouts.  More to the point, I haven't seen him catch up to a fastball at the hands or higher (like Peguero)  If that's the case, MLB pitchers will show little mercy.  Easy, too, to imagine the Rangers dumping him based on a fatal flaw like this.

Not sentencing Leonydas to the gallows quite yet, but he's on probation.  Last eight-ten games have been the show we were afraid of.

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