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Wastin' away in Margaritaville
Looking for his lost shaker of Safeco
There are some clear signs out there in the Rumor-Net that Tampa Bay is actively fielding offers for Chris Archer. There is also some indication that Jake Odorizzi could be had, for the right offer. To this I say, let's free him from the land of beaches, bikinis and Buffett and bring him this way!
If you've not watched some Odorizzi video, here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beRpPc7AMQU
The guy brings a Simple Simon old-school motion to the mound and basically duplicates the performance of our man Jimmy Paxton. Paxton has a career line that is 1.28 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 2.8 BB/9 8 K/9 and a 3.32 FIP. Odorizzi's is 1.21, 8.2, 2.7 and 8.3. FIP is 3.93 He's 26 years old, not a FA until '20, and has thrown 168, 169 and 188 innings the past three years, with 31, 28 and 33 starts. Tick tock, clockwork. He throws a nice heater (well, nice and spotted at 91MPH), a bendy cutter/slider and a wicked split-finger/change. He throws the FB about 60% of the time and the splitter 20+%. In '15 he threw it 30% of the time. The guy fits a Safeco Felix/Kuma template.
Pittsburgh is showing interest. Let's beat them to the punch. In case you forgot, we evidently have a sweet working relationship with TBR, witness the Shaffer/Motter trade. Let's take advantage of that.
Our natural trading partner was with the Cards, as they need a CF'er and we have some surplus there. It appears that St. Louis has made a 4x$15M offer to Dexter Fowler and I suspect they will figure out a deal with him. And considering the Arm/Leg/First-Born Male Child return that Tampa Bay seems to be expecting for Archer, then I'm suggesting we get in early, with a splash, for Odorizzi.
What will it take? Well, Whalen, Moore or Povse to begin with. I'm intrigued by Povse, who I wish to hang on to. Whalen is a guy they might be interested in. Then you have to give them a bat. D.J Peterson is a place to start. Then you'll have to give them a prospect or two. Details, details. OK, three prospects. I'm in.
Jake Odorizzi is young, good and established. He would give us a near full-house of youthful-booming arms. A rotation of Felix-Kuma-Paxton-Odorizzi-Miranda/Karns would look pretty spiffy, in my book. Haven't even mentioned Povse/Moore etc. We can afford what it takes to get him.
Time's a wasting, as are Cruz and Cano, btw. Let's fill up the rotation and get this thing on the road.
Evidently the natural trade with St. Louis wasn't in the Cards (cute, huh?). But there is one to be had down near Margaritaville. And it's just as good!
Go team.
Moe
Comments
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Odorizzi is a classic Number 3 starter and the kind of pitcher who gets better over time. Lacking the elite FB, he had to learn to pitch a long time ago. I'd almost rather have him than Archer.
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that other teams would easily beat the offer proposed here?
What if they demanded Tank?
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MLBT-R had a blurb yesterday that the M's were dangling Seth Smith as trade bait. Clearly the return wouldn't be great, likely a BP arm...but if Smith is on the block then we're dang confident in O'Neill and his quick arrival in Safeco.
I would make it prospect laden, along with the bat that might help and a MLB arm.
But I'm keeping O'Neill.
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It made perfect sense. But that was also before Haniger was acquired. At this point an outfield with Martin anchoring the center of Gamel the young, Haniger and Heredia (both 26 with experience(loosely)) makes some sense. Add in potential backups of O'Malley, Valencia, Motter, Freeman and Shaffer and there's plenty of OF coverage. Certainly not all will be in Seattle but some of them will be in AAA with Powell and O'Neill, until some are traded.
Haniger really changed everything in my view. In some ways he's an advanced version of O'Neill. Drafted out of college the year before O'Neill was drafted out of HS, he's amassed 673 more professional PA. He's also advanced 2 levels further although most teams would have had Tank in Tacoma toward the end of last year. Mitch's .860 MiL OPS and Tyler's .861 are almost identical. Haniger's .370 OBP vs. O'Neill's .349 show a difference in how they were produced. Steamer projections of 7.1 BB%/29.1 K% for O'Neill and 7.8%/21.7% for Haniger also show a difference. But I'm looking at one guy with K%'s in the teens through 2015 and AA (& in the teens in AAA in 16) while the others was in the 30's through high A in 2015 (then 26.1% in AA). Why is it far more bullish for the one who's not advanced past AA than the one who has had a decent cup in MLB? O'Neill is 4.5 years younger and certainly shinier, but no more certain. Both right handed. I'd like to keep them both. Just pointing out that O'Neill is more expendable now than he was at seasons end. And Haniger still seems underrated to me.
So I think Smith is expendable.
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Lookout Landing had this up at 11:00AM today. We scooped them. I actually started last night on this Odorizzi thread....then I somehow deleted it, nearly finished, and restarted this morning.
Way off in the Distance
Luiz Gohara may be the only pitcher in the system with legitimate, top-of-the-rotation potential. The 20-year-old lefty has a fastball that he’ll run up as high as 100 mph and a slider that’s developing into a considerable weapon. Command remains a concern with Gohara despite his breakout campaign in 2016, but the raw stuff is clearly there and he’s one to be excited about (you know, if Jerry doesn’t trade him tomorrow for Jake Odorizzi) (emphasis added).
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I think the prices for tradeable SP this off season are going to shock people. The team is not going to make an impact move without giving up one (or two) of the top prospects like O'Neil and Gohara. The supply of talent is lower than the demand - that means competition and inflation.
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What Grizz said. The Sawx gave up "Robinson Cano but faster" and the 105 mph kid, plus two other guys. The Rays will think that they need to be paid like that too. Of course the Rays aren't trading three years of Chris Sale.
I'm willing to part with Tank for a new pitcher. I'm guessing that JeDi is too, based on his statement that Tyler O'Neil is so good his service time needs to be protected. That smacks of a JeDi mind trick meant to manipulate simpleminded GM's.
The Mariners need to make the post season worse than they need a good future left fielder. Make a trade.
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Rather the young arm than the 30 HR's.
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Well...the Mariners might as begin their rebuilding process, because Boston cannot be beat in 2017. (tongue slightly in cheek...only slightly)
Jeez...how the heck are we supposed to compete with that??
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But we can match/beat them at 3B/2B/DH/SS.
Let's be conservative and give us 450 Felix/Kuma/Paxton innings. Get to 510 and you're much better. At 450, if that's the case, we would need another 300 innings from 4 and 5. That would be Karns and Miranda: Karns has been at 150-ish twice, '15 and a AAA/MLB combo in '14. Miranda got there (combo) last year. Povse, Whalen and Moore were all 145 to 165 last year. What do you need, 850+ innings from your starters? I like those young guys a lot....one of them could give us a bunch of quality innings....but one of the guys above them is likely to break down, too.
Odorizzi makes me feel comfortable.
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I've assumed all along that Smith will be gone. Probably not much in return.
So that leaves a lot of young guys...and I wonder how they stack up in JDs mind.
Leonys is a little different because he' in the arbitration process (with 2 years of control?)
Beyond him, Haniger, Gamel, Heredia, O'Neill, Lewis...with Bishop, Hernandez and Liberato further down the food chain.
Depending on how they rank in his mind, I could see him parting with one and and a viable pitching prospect for a year or two of a #3. Aside from Odorizzi, I continue to dream on Smyly (if they don't move Archer) and now even Pomeranz.
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TBR has Dickerson (27), Kiermaier (26), Souza (26), Guyer (30) and Jennings (30) all in the OF. But they don't really have a decent prospect in AA or AAA. Heredia....Bishop, Hernandez, Liberato would all be welcome down there.
All speculation.....I know. But it was a slow Tuesday.
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I'm not high on O'Neill at all. Personally think hes a sell high candidate. Given the market for SP, he isn't going to be nearly enough for a TOR anyhow.
Wouldn't mind targetting Smyly or Pomeranz, or perhaps both.
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If it were up to me, you'd write an article for us every Monday/Tuesday ...
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And now it appears the ChiSox might sell Quintana. A Chicago Fire Sale on pitchers, I suppose.
Jose Quintana has thrown 4 straght years of 200 innings and has yet to run an ERA over 3.51. 1.2 WHIP, 8.9 H/9. 2.3 BB's and 7.4 K's. Hasn't missed a start, either. FIP is 3.47.
And the best thing is that he costs you just $38M over the next 4 years....and you have a team option after '18 and '19, in case his arm explodes. Is there a very good and established pitcher with a more user friendly contract in all of baseball?
Whalen AND Gohara. Heck, Karns and Gohara gets it done. Ah, they will want a young bat, too....
Quintana is a horse.
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Quintana is more desirable than Sale IMO considering the contract, age, lack of decline in stuff. I would give them their pick of they're favorite 4 prospects in our system. Doubt that its nearly enough.
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I love this site but the trade proposals from our fans aren't realistic..
You aren't landing Odorizzi..a good and cheap starter entering his prime for back end starter prospects like Whale or Povse...you aren't getting him for a 30 something year old platoon outfielder in Smith or Peterson who probably never mounts to anything
Any deal for Odorizzi you're talking about possibly O'Neil, Gohara, and one of our better power throwing pen guys
I don't think we match up cause I think O'Neil is too good to part with for a #3..and Gohara plus won't interest them
Now you want to talk Quintana....that would take Tank and Diaz most likely
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I'm with you. I love Doc and Moe and everyone on this forum, but the trade scenarios aren't even remotely realistic.
If you want a TOR starter none of our prospects are good enough to headline the deal. You would have to trade Diaz AND your best prospects. A more interesting discussion would revolve over whether that would be a good idea or not.
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Chris Sale that is: The ChiSox got Moncada, one of the top prospects in BAseball. After that they got a 20 year old pitcher with a 1.2 WHIP at A+, a 20 year old 2.60-.330 A-Ball hitter and a 22-year old with 92 professional innings and a 1.49 WHIP at A-Ball. OK, Kopich throws 100 and is a fine prospect.
That was for Chris Sale, the most desired guy in the land.
Gohara is Kopich-like, or close. A young pitcher with an MLB-ready arm, Moore/Whelan, and two young bats who aren't named Tank get you in the ballpark for 3 years of Odorizzi, considering the Rays aren't going to threaten tomorrow and he's got three years until FA. Quintana might take two MLB ready arms AND Gohara for his 4 seasons. I may have missed that one by an arm.
If the Rays want lots more, you move on and buy an FA...or roll the bones with Moore/Whalen/Povse/Heston.....The M's are trying to buy 180 sturdy innings, not Chris Sale. Heck, St. Louis still hasn't bought Fowler....and we still have a nice CF they would love to have.