Seahawks Need a 1-1 Draft Pick? -- Bad News Dept.


Steen comes with the safety blitz into the pro-set of Pete Carroll's long-term vision:

I notice you didn't list a QB as transforming the offense.

And, at the risk of sounding like a bad fan, the downside if the winning is the prospect of perpetual mediocrity. Not bad enough to get an elite QB prospect, not good enough to win anything of consequence. 

Personally, I think its almost impossible to win without an elite QB, and the odds in snaring the next Rodgers looks long, the chances of aligning the stars to win with 2000 Ravens defense-esque looks even longer to me. 

What would you do, Doc? Rooting for losses isn't very enjoyable. Though, I really enjoyed rooting for Tyrone to lose another game in 2008. Horrible human and a worse FB coach.

I don't think it's really feasible to root for 2-and-14 type stuff in order to get an Andrew Luck.  Even if you were to get him, there's a 50% chance that he'd turn out to be something less than Drew Brees.  The MID projection on Andrew Luck has got to be, more realistically, Eli Manning than it would be Peyton Manning.

  • UP:  Peyton Manning (10-20%)
  • MID:  Eli Manning (50%)
  • LO:  Disappointment (30-40%)

And that's if everything goes exactly "right" and you get to draft him.  If it's the NBA, fine:  somehow they know that LeBron and Durant are going to be MVP's.  But in the NFL there are no guarantees even with the 1-1 pick.

It's just me, I know, but I just don't care for the concept of gearing up for the franchise draftee.  All that glitters is not gold.


=== PRO ===

It's true that the last 5-6 Super Bowls have been won by QB's who were hyped coming out of college, and who have since become great NFL players.  Thoroughbreds all:

  • 2010:  Rodgers -- 1st round, #24 overall
  • 2009:  Brees -- 2nd , #32 overall
  • 2008:  Roethlisberger -- 1st, #11 overall
  • 2007:  E. Manning -- 1-1 draft pick
  • 2006:  P. Manning -- 1-1 draft pick
  • 2005:  Roethlisberger

When I was a kid, it was axiomatic that --- > the last Super Bowl winner, the very last season, set the tone for the "correct" way to play "modern" football.  And they were serious about that.

They figured that football was evolving, and when the 49'ers set up a dynasty, the West Coast offense was the "correct" way to build all 32 football teams and Buddy Ryan's 46 Defense was just an outlier.

So:  looking at the last 5-6 Super Bowl winners, you might have the impression that you need to draft and groom a true college QB stud.

And:  without a doubt, the higher you are in the 1st round, the better your chances of a thoroughbred.  I'm sure that you could demonstrate that a QB taken in the first 5 picks has a much better chance than one taken #15-20 overall, who in turn has a much better statistical chance than one taken where Brees was, and so on.

If you can lose 14 games, and grab a Brad Pitt lookalike with the 1-1, that's definitely the cleanest way to secure an elite QB.

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