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Sabermetrics

Brandon Maurer and Luke Hochevar

BJOL on SP to RP conversions

Posted by

jemanji

9/12/13

Fascinating take this morning by The Founding Father. Subscriptions are $3 per month at this link.

Before we even start, here, recall to mind if you will that Luke Hochevar IS Brandon Maurer:

92-95 fastball
Four pitches...
... his favorite is the 86 MPH slider
6'5", 220
Drop-and-drive motion ... finishes too high ... dubious command

Watch this video and you'll think you're watching Maurer, in terms of the pitching motion.

This doesn't mean that Maurer is doomed to be Hochevar, or isn't. There are 100 guys like this who did bad and 100 guys who did good. But this year, Hochevar has been a glamor bullpen star -- in the vid, he fans 5 guys in a row, and his K/BB/HR is now 10.2/2.2/0.7. Wow!

..............

Bill, Luke Hochevar is extremely effective this year (1.70 ERA) after a few years of being a #5 starter. Is there some way to guess which "bad" starters will be great relievers. Is it only which starter has a great fastball and weak 2nd and 3rd pitches?

Asked by: Steve9753

Answered: 9/12/2013

I don't think it is that easy, no It's an issue that we wrestle with quite often. It is generally true:

1) That almost all pitchers are more effective (per inning) in relief than they are as starters, and

2) That SOME pitchers--probably 30%--are very dramatically more effective as relievers than as starters.

You go into every winter looking for more relievers, looking for relievers who will have a good year next year, and there are always a field of failed starting pitchers who are candidates for those positions. We thus spend a good amount of time discussing this exact issue you raise: can this pitcher be effective in the bullpen?

If there was an easy way to tell, I think we'd have found it by now.

..............

Let's Exec Sum these light bulbs, all of which make perfect sense, but one of which is more extreme than expected:

Everybody's going to do better in the bullpen.
Even adjusting for that, some pitchers are MASSIVELY more suited to relieve than start.
That number is about 30%. About 1/3 of pitchers are MASSIVELY better tailored for [1 time thru a lineup] than the average pitcher is. They're born-and-bred relievers.
The giant searchlights are ON for the next Danny Farquhar. Teams emphasize the SP-to-RP in that search.
You can't put a Fangraphs formula on it. You'll have to include intuition going forward.

.................

I wouldn't have thought the number was 30%. Not as to guys who are "very dramatically" better as RP's.

Jimmy Carter "My Kingdom for a One-Handed Advisor," Dept.

Is Brandon Maurer in that category? Is he going to be a great relief pitcher? Even if he's not ... well, you got Taijuan and Paxton and Ramirez next season; could Maurer be a championship-level swing man? Well, on the one hand...

PRO:

His fastball touches upper 90's in the pen
His FB-yakker combo is sleek
An occasional cutter to LH would be sleek in relief
His delivery is max effort
He doesn't have much command (think Furbush, Pryor)
LUKE BLINKIN HOCHEVAR YOU FEEB

But on the other hand...

CON:

He's got 4 legit pitches
His drop-and-drive and size gives him nice durability
Has a background of doing well in the rotation
You don't want to give up on him
etc.

So far, his RP/SP splits don't show anything beyond the generic "RP is easier." His K/BB/HR are:

6.0 / 2.9 / 1.7 in the rotation
8.0 / 2.7 / 1.8 in the pen

Yep. Generic RP stats for a starter.

Getting a Feel, Dept.

There may be no room for Maurer in the rotation next year. Conversely, it's not clear to me how time in AAA is going to help him learn not to center sliders, because they'll work in AAA. But there may be an easy out here, gentlemen...

Here is Luke Hochevar's pitch selection in 2013:

51% - 96 MPH fastball
34% - 90 MPH slider
14% - curve ball
0% - change up

In other words, Hochevar found it easier to throw 1.5 pitches, and get the feel for them, then he found it to get the feel for 4.0 pitches. Wish I'd thought of that. :coughpinedacough:

If I were working for the M's, and in view of the Taijuan/Paxton situation ... I'd put a Luke Hochevar file folder on Capt Jack's desk, and ask him to consider the idea of making things a little easier for Brandon Maurer. Kid's got an arm on him.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

was just thinking that

And kind of shouted it between the lines while calling him "Meower". Had little of that insight when I did though. My thought was mainly that there's more room in the bullpen now as much need and more likelihood that he could thrive there out of the gate next year.

Paxton in this conversation as well

I hate that I've soured on Paxton so much, but at age 24 and in AAA, he should have putting it all together, and, instead, he went backward in most categories.
I understand he's a work in progress and may be on the Unit Track (not fully effective until age 29), but I'm not sure what's the best thing to do in the meantime. It'll be hard to give him a bunch of MLB starts if he has as many inconsistent 5.0-IP starts as he did in AAA this year (14 of 26 were 5.0 or less, most with high pitch counts).
In my mind, we don't have a "Taijuan/Paxton situation" we have a "Taijuan/Hultzen situation" but I guess we'll see.
I know he didn't stay healthy, but Hultzen looked ready in every way when he pitched, and, Maurer and Paxton ... didn't.