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THE TEMPLATE

As a reliever, Monty had just blown 95 MPH left handed, and then all three of his offspeed pitches were untouchable (by eye and by stats).

As a starter, my question went more towards "can he sustain plus velocity" and "can he keep one or two offspeed pitches in the zone coherently - using sequences"?  Let's try this shtick in scouting clipboard style:

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FASTBALL - 60

Here is the velocity trend chart, per Brooks.

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That's a "decline" by inning from 95 - 95 - 95 - 94 - 93.5 - hard 93.  Through 74 pitches.  It's not James Paxton, but neither is Felix, and he never was ... for a guy who hasn't been "stretched out" yet it looks like Montgomery is going to keep a lot of that velo in the starting rotation.

Matty axed about Drew Pomeranz, who uses a similar curve ball and a 90 MPH fastball to (I guess) star this year.  It's not like Montgomery's game hinges on 92 vs 95, the way Taijuan's sometimes does.  Might as well stub that comp out; it's an interesting one.

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77 MPH CURVE BALL - 70

Montgomery's "big weapon" in the pen.  In the rotation we were hoping for, in order:

• Strikes
• Convincing arm action
• Low strikes
• Deeeeep break

It was all Wunderbar.  He threw 11 of 14 curves for strikes.  They swung 10 times.  Only 2 times did the ball go into play, and then weakly.  This is a big-breaking pitch that rolls off the table more than it slides in to a RH.

Here is a side visualization of it, from TexasLeaguers.com, with the curve being the blue diamonds that hit a pane of glass and then fall limply straight down to the ground:

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Or, here's the movement-vs-vacuum chart:

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That's without gravity - if you were throwing the ball in a spaceship.  WITH gravity, the curve drops 35 inches, LOL.

In fact on this chart you can see the release point at 50 feet - after 3-4 feet, the curve ball is already sailing out to 1B :- )  And time after time, Montgomery dropped it in knee-high, breaking letters to knees at just the last minute.  I got to thinking he couldn't throw it above the knees if he wanted to.

Arm action?  Montgomery seems to throw his curve harder than his fastball.  He's got a little ear-yank going on it a lot of the time.  He sells that baby "fastball."  B'lee DAT.

Bottom line:  The Barry Zito curve has been a wipeout pitch, a true plus-plus pitch.

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CUT FASTBALL AND CHANGEUP - 55, 60

I kinda hate cutters and mushy sliders.  In this game, Montgomery did a simply great job of keeping them in tight to righties.  If you're going to crisply put your cut fastball where it needs to go, fine, no argument.  It's when you spin it letter-high...

Montgomery has coughed up only 2 homers in 56.2 innings, so he hasn't been doing that a lot.

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When Monty first came up, I thought the change was his best weapon.  It's still been good for him -- a +2.00 run value or something.  9 of them Sunday, none hit into play.  But it's just an afterthought.

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STARTER'S RHYTHM - 55

Monty doesn't have the grace, or feather, or balance, to get into a rocking chair and pick gnats off cattle in the 5th inning.

But what he did do was finish nose-to-leather down the centerline ... rock consistently... move his head consistently ... in other words, he repeated his mechanics.  And then some.  What he would do next time, I dunno, but in 2016 so far he's had control of his motion and his release point.

Which has left him with 7.5 strikeouts, 2.5 walks and 0.3 homers.  

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PITCH SEQUENCING - 50

Montgomery's command was more than enough to deal out several exciting pitch sequences.  I liked Orlando in the fifth:

0-0 changeup missed, 1-0

1-0 hard cutter on hands, properly taken, 1-1

1-1 cutter just in off hands, tempted a swing and foul ball, 1-2

1-2 yakker no chance, garbage strikeout

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AGE-ARC - 65

Montgomery is 7 months younger than James Paxton.

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DR'S PROGNOSIS - 65

Buy, buy, buy. 

There are no guarantees in baseball, but boy, ax Yoo-Hoo Rick what a "post-hype sleeper" is.  Montgomery used to be a top-100 prospect and he flashed some serious game Sunday.

I'll give you Tyler O'Neill for him and place him right in my rotation at #3.  Take my chances here, boy.

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JERRY DIPOTO

Had an agonizing decision in March, is 'cause Montgomery seemed miscast as a reliever, but was out of options.  He judged Montgomery to be important.  His judgment turned out to be right.

These are the decisions that separate GMs.  Everybody would sign Kyle Seager.

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BABVA,

Dr D