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Q. Do you like the move?
A. A lot. Assuming we didn't give up Paxton, Montero, or Taijuan for him.
My idea of a PTBNL is more like Leon Landry than "Take your pick of anybody not on our 40-man roster" but that's just me. Will be watching for the PTBNL announcement through slits in my fingers.
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Q. What's the bottom line out of Oakland?
A. 90% of A's fans say "good riddance, hope we got $50,000 for him" and the more alert 10% are, apologetically, "It always felt like he was one tweak away from being lights out." Dr. D is more with the 10% than he is with the 90%.
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Q. What's the deal on his slash line?
A. You're aware of Scribner's unbelievable 64:4 control ratio last year, and his even more unbelievable 2.1 homer rate. The entire Scribner discussion revolves around whether you can solve that 2.1 with a "tweak."
In most cases, a microscopic BB rate and sky-high HR rate is simply over-challenging. Not really in Scribner's case. He's trying to make an antiquated pitch arsenal work. He may be able to.
Before you proceed, you should probably scope out THIS VIDEO RAT CHEER:
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Q. Who DOES that any more? Throw a slow RH curve like that?
A. Absolutely no one. I can guarantee you that no pitcher in the major leagues throws 25% change curves which arrive at slower than 75 MPH. Neither does anybody throw 10% change curves that arrive at slower than 75 MPH. Well, a couple of starters still make these pitches work. See below.
Back in the day, Erik Hanson blew away the American League with this type of game. More recently, Aaron Sele. Used to be, Tom Gordon closed games out with a 91 fastball and a crackling-but-slow overhand curve. That's all a generation ago. (No, Josh, you don't count. A 96 MPH fastball skews the template.)
Iwakuma used the 72 MPH curve effectively in Japan, apparently, but ditched it in America. The reason? Too little margin for error and too many big dudes who will swat it out of the park with a stick. The 70-75 overhand curve is a dearly-beloved sight to Dr. D, but ... he is WONDERING (wondering, now) whether the pitch is obsolete. You tell him. Is it?
But we're just talking about DiPoto taking a flier here. I'd love to take it too, if I were in his shoes.
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"Tweaking" Scribner involves finding some way to provide a little more margin for error on his slow curve. It's a boom-or-bust pitch and you got to talk to it sweet.
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Q. Jered Weaver now does this, a very slow curve ball.
A. Yes, but ... Weaver has off-the-charts command. And pitchability. Still, Evan Scribner does have an arsenal very similar to Weaver's, with about eight feet on the fastball to trade against the command.
There are a few STARTING pitchers who work 15% slow curves into their games, once they have time to get into batters' heads. It's not the same thing as a blizzard of eephus balls during your 1 IP out of the pen. Chris Tillman, Ian Kennedy, one or two others maybe. Tillman, now that his fastball is ordinary, could be evolving into this generation's Aaron Sele. Possibly Evan Scribner has a shot at that, somewhere down the line.
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Q. You said something about Yusmeiro Petit.
A. He's the next-closest thing to Evan Scribner in the major leagues, as far as his arsenal out of the bullpen:
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| Swing Man | FB velo | % | Curve velo | % | Slider | % |
| Evan Scribner | 91 | 50 | 72 | 27 | 85 | 23 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | 89 | 50 | 77 | 22 | 85 | 17 |
Those guys are just about the only two relievers who use a sub-80 curve ball regularly. Okay, we've got people scouring for errors here; let's say these are the only two relievers who throw mid-70's curve balls regularly.
Petit also throws a changeup, and his curve is "firmer" than Scribner's. By exactly the distance that Lloyd McClendon wants Taijuan to "firm up" his curve ball. For Dr. D, that takes the romance out of it; Jered Weaver throws his curve 62-69 MPH these days, so it's not impossible. But still, Petit's offspeed stuff is not eephus-like. That's why we said Petit was the NEXT closest thing to Evan Scribner.
Petit is effective out of the pen or spot-starting. If he can sneak up on people, he can brain them from behind with a sock full of nickels. Evan Scribner also has a starter's arsenal, motion, and rhythm. Put him in the Petit role and there's a decent chance - let us say, 50-50 - that he can reproduce the Petit results.
Of course, Petit just got non-tendered :- ) but you know what we mean.
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Q. Best case for Scribner?
A. He has shown flashes before. In his first 30 outings last year, he had a 37:2 control with only 3 homers in 33 innings ... he faded badly but as you might have noticed, he then went on the 60-day DL. And! Scribner's xFIP in 2014-15 is two plus. If xFIP theory were correct and infallible, you'd have a minor star in the bag already.
Maybe you think Scribner's HR/Fly rate is just one of those things? Then you WOULD give up Jesus Montero for him. And laugh all the way to the bank. G'luck with that.
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Seems to me that if DiPoto strikes gold here, he'll get the good version of Yusmeiro Petit. A swing man who (if not overexposed!) can give you 50-120 pretty tasty innings. Hey, Dr. D has nothing against DiPoto's fliers. He just prefers not to give up Wilhelmsen and Kivlehan for them.
Servais and Stottlemyre will have to tweak Scribner fast, though. Scribner's out of options. Not that the majors aren't full of these edge-of-the-precipice reclamation pitchers like Scribner and Petit.
Enjoy,
Dr D
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image: Joel Dinda, flickr
So seems like a very nice solid deal... Seems like Scribner is also a pull at the deck to be a fine 5th starter as well... who knows maybe he refines his control and becomes Weaver for a couple years :)
Bat or someone will have to fill us in on Gill... But since I haven't really heard much about him in the past I am going to assume he is a randomly generated org filler AAAA RHP.