Doc needs no defense from me! This blog is his and is outstanding.
What I do defend is the ENVIRONMENT of the blog. Most baseball blogs have somewhat of a snarky character. Many, even in the Ms world, have writers who are still in HS, let alone grad students, and are not that informed whereof they speak. That's not what I, for one, am interested in seriously reading, although I am as entertained by some of it as anybody. And I really enjoy Sullivan and Shields writing, and Churchill is excellent, although occasionally less than gracious. But Cameron writes and talks from a point of view I don't particularly enjoy, and his tone grates. And I don't think he's right all that often. But most of all, he refuses to discuss his views.
Peer review is one of the most hallowed parts of intellectual discourse. But to be valuable, it should be measured, civil, backed up, and open to discussion. For Cameron, having three pitches is a closed subject. For me, who has played, watched, and talked baseball for 60 years -- ...well, it depends. And SSI is all about "what are the dependencies?". And that is fun and challenging to an old guy like me.
No one wants to chase you off the board, but we do want you to understand: 1) there are no sides here, no enemy;. 2) civility as well as intellect is valued; 3) we all want the Ms to be the best team and best franchise in Baseball (well, I'll give Matt a loyalty waiver for the duration of his internship); and 4) we want to enjoy reading this site.
Group think, in the military or anywhere else, is dangerous. Read FIASCO or The GAMBLE by Thomas Ricks. Bright people who: 1) Close their minds, 2) Don't like being intellectually uncomfortable, 3) Are personally charismatic, and 4) Rise to high rank - are amongst the most dangerous people on earth. I worked for a guy that personally and professionally represented a counter to these tendencies. That is why he is so revered - discussions were open, but there was always an expectation of quality. And the best solution always won - regardless of who contributed to it.
This site, while about a relatively trivial activity, represents the best of internet discourse -- open, informed, and still FUN. Enjoy it! And use some of the things you learn about discourse in the rest of your life. As you become a leader in your field, it will stand you in good stead.
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Philoso-Raptor, Dept.
I saw (another) piece today that said RHP's cannot throw sliders to LHB's, and since Maurer's changeup isn't real good right now, he should be in AAA.
My considered opinion is that this is a superficial assessment, a quick-and-easy dismissal of a sophisticated issue.
And it is based on a "can't throw sliders to LHB's" idea that is used as an absolute. The idea has weight. An absolute? Nada. If only life were so simple. Pineda, Dempster, and lots of guys are exceptions to the "absolute."
...............
Yes I have tired of the self-assured absolutes. Lurking behind them is dogmatism, and the vague conviction that we have 995 of 1,000 light bulbs turned on.
You come off all omniscient in print, and then it comes to live TV or a debate in any form, and get terrified. Why is that? On a subconscious level there is the realization that the confidence is not warranted.
Ask Dr. D on ESPN sometime and see what happens. Or Bill James. Or Geoff Baker. Those guys are relaxed and at ease defending their positions. That's because they offer a level of confidence that they believe is appropriate. (And: 100% confidence is never "appropriate.")
This is an epidemic syndrome in America today, a root problem in our culture. College professors, who trade purely in SAT's, IQ's, and credentials, scoff at John Lott's superb research on gun control ... and then cancel debates with him at the last second. Folks who work the hardest to marginalize Bill O'Reilly are the very last ones to show up and debate him. My kingdom for a guy whose bite exceeds his bark ...
Hey, I think I've figured out why I like James and Baker so much ... :- )
/rant
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We have reasonably demonstrated, AB-by-AB, that Maurer's issue is fastballs vs LHB's -- due to lousy location, and lousy pitch sequencing.
He is capable of getting LHB's out. He in fact DID it, against Baltimore second time through, and it was no accident. The jam pitch to Davis was well-located. When Maurer throws a 91-95 fastball to the edge of the strike zone, they're not going to hurt him. Very often.
To get LHB's, he'll have to be sharp with his location -- no 91 MPH fastballs into lefties' hot zones -- and he'll have to change the eye level, go up in the strike zone with the fastball.
Erasmo Ramirez has exactly the same problem. He can't get much of the plate with his fastball. He learned this in his early starts, and he quickly got the idea. If you are a RHP with a low arm angle, you better be careful with the fastball against lefties. (That's a general principle, not an absolute!)
It ain't gonna be easy for him against LHB's, because they see his FB well. But it's not a fatal flaw.
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If you ARE in the camp that says Maurer must throw changeups to LHB's.... his changeup isn't that far away. It's a lot better than Blake Beavan's, and they let Beavan pitch, don't they?
Comments
Wedge addressed it as an adjustment that needed to be made. There's a chance it won't be made. But he, at least, thinks that ... it depends.
But don't things like swinging strike rate and plate discipline stats tend to stabilize pretty quickly. His slash line against lefties is one thing that could be due to come back to earth a little bit, maybe his ISO and BABIP are unsustainably high, but a 6:2 k to bb ratio? While simultaneously running a 2:16 against righties?
His FIP and xFIP are both over 7 against lefties over 59 batters faced. His HR/9 is 3. His BABIP is .319 against both. So it's not as though everything is falling in. It's as though everything is being hit really hard. His LD% is 20, and FB% is 50% against lefties. HR/FB is 16%. High certainly, but even if you regress it to half that, say 8%, you are still talking about on OPS way above acceptable.
So the good news is that his splits against lefties will probably come down a little. The bad news is that even after they do, with his current inability to miss bats and below average command, it won't be enough. He HAS to improve. Number one on my list that he needs to improve is fastball command, and not just by a smidge. Next, I think he will need a change up that's around ML average, any better is gravy. He flashed an above average one the other night against the Orioles which is funny considering he still got pounded. But it also underlines that adding a change up isn't a cure all.
I'm definitely not a minors stat guru. I mean I know that SABR guys like high k, low walks guys that limit homers. But I can't sit here and pretend I know how minor league stats translate to major league stats. But to my eye, considering the stats above, and just watching a game where he gets shelled, it doesn't seem at all like SSS problems. Especially considering he is controlling righties very nicely at the same time lefties are killing him.
Just my 2 cents.
a writer of popular self-help books said: "Our History is Not Our Destiny". Our destiny comes after making adjustments - in baseball as in life. Even more so, someone else's history is not our destiny - unless we ignore the lessons taught therein.
So long as they throw 'em, Carlos Peguero will keep,getting called up.
I feel somewhere in the middle of all this. I think a FB/SL combo containing a good slider can work, if the circumstances are right. These being:
A) great fastball velocity -> covers up mistakes and improves your slider (change of speeds)
B) great command (ideally on both pitches) -> you won't need A)
C) great sequencing -> keeps hitters of balance, but is the hardest to do on a constistent basis with two pitches, because a hitter can guess right about 50% of the time
I think Pineda is actually a bad example, because while Cameron was right on one hand (Pineda had visible platoon splits), he very underestimated how good Pineda was, making his statement of "he's not ready" incorrect. And with Maurer, LR and Jeff are basically disagreeing over whether lack of B) or C) are the reason for the troubles, while everyone - including Cameron - is agreeing that a FB/SL combo will lead to platoon splits. But the numbers posted on USSM are just very small sample size and more extreme than they are expected to be.
Plus: There's no alternative to Maurer right now anyway, so he will need to learn B) and/or C) the hard way, because he just doesn't have A).
No doubt MLB lefties are not the same as MiLB lefties. And let's not forget Mauer made the jump right from AA--->MLB.
No doubt a better CU would make him a better pitcher.
However, it seems to me his main problem last start (as you pointed out) was FB command. OTHO, FB command is supposed to be a (relative) strength for him.
I also think there's no way the cautious Ms bring Mauer up to The Show if they thought he would struggle horribly against lefties. If that were the case, they would have kept Garland. Sure they could end up being wrong on that, but they're in the position to evaluate that better than we are, and his minors splits were fine.
We'll see.
The kid is 22 years old, skipped AAA, and in 6 starts has given his ballclub a quality start in half of them. Yes, the Angels had one lefty - Easy Out Hamilton. The other two were vs. Texas, and one was in Texas. In Texas, he had to pitch around Berkman (who likes hitting lefty the most, and has mashed them all his career), Pierzysinski, Murphy and Moreland. Not exactly a walk in the park. And of course, he also had to deal with Kinsler, Cruz and Beltre as well - and keep Elvis off the bases. He left that game in the 7th merely down 2-0. I guess you could say he should be tossing those QS's for Tacoma, but actually, it makes me kinda wonder what Walker can do for us when he finally gets the call. Maurer was pretty good in the Southern League. Walker is owning it.