I mean, I called Justin "slower than Molasses rolling uphill" but he can't be slower than Ole, right? Or it's at least a snail vs. tortoise slugfest for slowness. In the minors Justin hit a double every 16 at-bats. Franklin hit one every 19.3 ABs down on the farm (mostly because of his terrible SLG vs LHP) and doubles machine Kyle Seager hit em every 13.5 ABs. Justin is well-sandwiched with that production rate.
But in the bigs, Justin hits one every 24 at bats. Why is that?
Olerud hit a double every 15.2 ABs for his career, with his best years in the 10-12 AB range. If Justin maintains his Ole homerun power, and his Ole walk rate (Olerud hit for more average, but had an isoW of .103, exactly what Smoak has this year) then we just need doubles from him.
If Justin can keep hitting these liners around the park, maybe he can get his doubles rate up. Honestly I wish he could use LF at all and drive some liners/HRs back that way like he used to, because the shift he's playing against now won't help him add to his doubles totals or up his average much.
Gotta defeat the shift and use all fields, and that is something he's simply not doing. If he does, he can be a quality OBP-first baseman for a long time. 25 HR power is fine with 35-40 doubles. When you hit more HRs than doubles, like Justin did last year, then you'd better hit a lot of HRs.
I'd rather hope for Justin to remember that aiming at the RF corner doesn't get him any more bases than hitting it into the LF corner does, I guess.
~G
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Q. Are you saying that Justin Smoak has arrived?
A. No, no, no ...
Obviously, I concur with Mo' Dawg that the hope delivered by a steelhead stream is the finest-quality Light of Elendil hope that will be enjoyed by mortal man...
The hope delivered by Messrs. Seager, Franklin, and perhaps Miller is of a level only a few notches below that...
The hope delivered by Smoak now, AFTER his .577 SLG "rampage," is of a level several notches below that again...
We as Mariner fans would be derelict, though, if we were oblivious to the technical and sabermetric leaps that the man has attained. Look. We been sitting here ten years waitin' on Smoak. Now that he shows us something, there's no harm sitting up.
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Q. Would Dr. D concur that Smoak's power is comparable to Casey Kotchman's?
A. Two things ...
One, that's a valuable thing to keep in mind, that Justin Smoak is more of an OBP first baseman than a SLG first baseman. I think that OBP-over-SLG factor is a negative, while we're talkin' here.
Two, like Rick pointed out, Casey Kotchman hits 6 homers in Safeco. Smoak hits 19, while in his worst form.
Justin Smoak's power is very questionable. That's not the same thing as saying that he has demonstrated that he will never hit home runs.
| PX (Power Index; similar to ISO, derived) | Player |
| 100 | League average |
| 75 | Casey Kotchman |
| 110 | Smoak, typically |
| 140 | Smoak, in 3-month spurts |
We're not calling Justin Smoak a Best Bet here, not by a long shot. But when he lets the bat fly, he can go 380-400 opposite field .... in 2010, as a rookie, he hit shots of 425 and 441 to straightaway center field. He's not Brendan Ryan; he's a big country kid who's been confused and tentative.
The home run he hit the opposite field yesterday, he wrapped the bat, wound the spring, and hit himself in the butt with the bat.
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Q. Are you saying he has above-average power?
A. He has above-average strength, certainly.
I don't know that Nick Franklin can hit the ball 383 feet to the opposite field, do you? (Maybe he can; I don't know.) Can Kyle Seager hit a home run to right field? I believe that Kyle Seager has hit one (1) home run in his life, to the other side of the center fielder. Ichiro City, baby.
The home run he hit against Joe Smith, it was 113 MPH off the bat. Here, a picture's worth 1000 words.
It's important to understand something: Justin Smoak has been limited in his home runs --- > primarily because he has been confused, and therefore tentative, and therefore passive. But he's shown flashes. Kyle Seager hits 20 home runs a year, all to right field, most of them moderate distance -- Kyle is not TENTATIVE up there. He applies the power he's got.
I don't say that Smoak is going to go from 13-21 homers a year, like Carlos Pena had for 8 years, and then suddenly hit 46 homers, like Pena did. But I don't think it's accurate to rule out a power spike at any time in the future.
Physically and sabermetrically, Smoak looks capable of Olerud-type power. We'll get a good chance to check it out after the All-Star Break.
Comments
As we know, yesterday's HR was straightaway opposite field. As Smoak relaxes into his swing, it stands to reason that he'll let the ball travel a little deeper into the zone, right?
I had an aiki sensei one time who would get on me about gritting my teeth and grimacing during sparring. Smoak's grimace would send him screaming into the night. It's clear that there is a relaxed Smoak in there somewhere ... took Pena 8-9 years to find it, though...
The grimace comment, Doc. I've always thought that I would love to see Smoak hit for a bit without a cheek full of chaw/bubble gum/something.
Smoak's K's are at a career high (23%), but so are his BB's (13.4%). Weird, no?
He's not lucking out, as his BABIP is .319.
He's seeing about the same number of FB's this year, while his curveballs seen are down, and his changeups, too. However, he is seeing sliders on 16.1% of the pitches he sees. I wonder if that contributes to his high K rate and high BB rate?
After a 1-0 count, Smoak's line is .266-.431-.354. After an 0-1 count he's .220-.291-.330. After 1-1 it's .229-.333-.349.
Get an early strike on the guy and he's relative meat.
But don't groove a grapefruit on the 1st pitch: He's put the 1st pitch in play 27 times. He's hit .370 and slugged .815 w/3 2B's and 3 homers in those 27 appearances. It would seem your 1st Pitch in play BA would/should be the same as your BABIP. He significantly better...and slugging like B. Ruth.
Attack him with the first pitch, FB away perhaps. That's your best recipe against him. His career 1st Pitch in play #'s are .287 and .441. Make him a .300/.500 1st Pitch guy, and he becomes much more pedestrian.
He's improved, certainly. Not many .228 after 1600 career PA guys make the jump to .280. Smoak will have a better chance as his platoon use increases, because his RH PA's will decline dramatically. That will help him....and us.
But pitchers will catch up with him this year, soon I suspect.
Let's remember that Smoak's hot streaks have been followed by Polar Expresses. He'll have one of those soon enough. The proof in the Smoak pudding will be how short that collapse is.
I was recently working on brealfalls (rolls). I had learned a roll similar to Mae Ukemi (forward roll over the shoulder) about half my life ago. In trying to do Mae Ukemi I needed to make some adjustments to what I already knew. About a dozen rolls later I got inbetween and my back was too straight which resulted in tweaking my shoulder. Its been over 2 months and I'm still feeling a small knot under my trapesius at the joint (supraspinitus I believe) that's very difficult to massage. It's not bothersome at this point, but still there. It's hard to be a good Uki with a bad shoulder. Point being, if I wasn't in between I wouldn't have been injured. I haven't tried breakfalls since, but it's about time.
I was picking things up quickly until then and now I'm behind where I was when I got in between. I'll be getting back in when I head back out there in a week or so, but I know I can't be tentative because of that experience or I'll likely hurt myself again.
But once you land badly, you'll probably always have a flinch... the human brain conditions itself to avoid previous injuries... may always be uncomfortable, but still it can be done...
Great illustration. :daps: